INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

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xironman
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#81 Postby xironman » Tue Oct 16, 2007 7:47 am

I don't know, it does not look sooo bad this morning. Adapted from the Holy Grail Scene 2 http://www.mwscomp.com/movies/grail/grail-02.htm
CART MASTER:
Bring out your dead!
CUSTOMER:
Here's one.
CART MASTER:
Ninepence.
99L:
I'm not dead!
CART MASTER:
What?
CUSTOMER:
Nothing. Here's your ninepence.
99L:
I'm not dead!
CART MASTER:
'Ere. He says he's not dead!
CUSTOMER:
Yes, he is.
99L:
I'm not!
CART MASTER:
He isn't?
CUSTOMER:
Well, he will be soon. He's very ill.
99L:
I'm getting better!
CUSTOMER:
No, you're not. You'll be stone dead in a moment.
99L:
I think I'll go for a walk.
CUSTOMER:
You're not fooling anyone, you know. Look. Isn't there something you can do?
99L: [singing]
I feel happy. I feel happy.
[whop]
CUSTOMER:
Ah, thanks very much.
CART MASTER:
Not at all. See you on Thursday.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#82 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 8:41 am

There is a weak surface low in the SW Gulf near 22.6N/94.6W, as can be seen on the image below. A trof axis extends NE from the low to the FL panhandle. Winds around the low are only 5-10 kts, so there's little or no low-level convergence. Upper level winds are unfavorable for development. Most likely the low and trof will move ashore into the northern Gulf coast between LA and the FL Panhandle today/tomorrow, bringing beneficial rain to the southeast.

Image
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#83 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 16, 2007 9:05 am

I think that deeper convection by the north Gulf coast is from convergence between the front over CONUS and the SE winds on the east side of 99L. It does appear to be entrained to the Low so if it does deepen it should pull it in towards the center. That is why I was saying look for a N then NE turn where the system can allign itself with the convection. Best rain in town no matter how weak.

This is a perfect set-up for a sleeper no one saw coming.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#84 Postby poof121 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 9:32 am

How come the NHC says upper winds are becoming unfavorable when the shear intensity tendency says shear is decreasing?

Image
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#85 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 16, 2007 9:37 am

Mexican desert air will probably keep it down:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#86 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 9:39 am

poof121 wrote:How come the NHC says upper winds are becoming unfavorable when the shear intensity tendency says shear is decreasing?

Image


Both can be true. The farther north it moves, the greater the shear. Even if shear was increasing across the northern Gulf, it's still stronger than across the southern Gulf. Instead of looking at those shear maps, look at what's actually happening - run a long-term water vapor satellite loop.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#87 Postby poof121 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 9:53 am

wxman57 wrote:
poof121 wrote:How come the NHC says upper winds are becoming unfavorable when the shear intensity tendency says shear is decreasing?

Both can be true. The farther north it moves, the greater the shear. Even if shear was increasing across the northern Gulf, it's still stronger than across the southern Gulf. Instead of looking at those shear maps, look at what's actually happening - run a long-term water vapor satellite loop.


Thanks, I didn't think about that.

How fast is the low moving anyway? It's kinda hard to make out on the visible imagery.
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INVEST 99L RECON

#88 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 16, 2007 10:09 am

Code: Select all

747
NOUS42 KNHC 161430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 16 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
         TCPOD NUMBER.....07-144

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. SUSPECT AREA   GULF OF MEXICO
   FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70         FLIGHT TWO-- TEAL 71
   A. 17/1800Z                  A. 18/0600Z
   B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST        B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
   C. 17/1600Z                  C. 18/0330Z
   D. 26.0N AND 95W             D. 28.0N AND 95W
   E. 17/1700Z-2300Z            E. 18/0500-1100Z
   F. SFC TO 10,000FT           F. SFC TO 10,000FT

   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
   DEVELOPS.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
   2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
                       WVW
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#89 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 10:11 am

589
ABNT20 KNHC 161508
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TODAY OR
TOMORROW BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE IN THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA


They have scheduled flights into this system to begin flying tomorrow afternoon, if necessary:

Code: Select all

[b]747
NOUS42 KNHC 161430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 16 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
         TCPOD NUMBER.....07-144

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. SUSPECT AREA   GULF OF MEXICO
   FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70         FLIGHT TWO-- TEAL 71
   A. 17/1800Z                  A. 18/0600Z
   B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST        B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
   C. 17/1600Z                  C. 18/0330Z
   D. 26.0N AND 95W             D. 28.0N AND 95W
   E. 17/1700Z-2300Z            E. 18/0500-1100Z
   F. SFC TO 10,000FT           F. SFC TO 10,000FT

   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
   DEVELOPS.[/b]
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#90 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Oct 16, 2007 10:47 am

Ok. 6 hours ago the NHC was killing this system, saying that nothing would form at all, and now, they are saying that something could form later today? Whatever.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#91 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Oct 16, 2007 11:02 am

Image
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#92 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Oct 16, 2007 11:09 am

Well looking at the latest satellite loop in sure looks
like 99L is trying to get better organized. The conditions
currently don't look as hostile as yesterday.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#93 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 16, 2007 11:24 am

Nothing like having a huge plume of rain over water while all the areas around it are in a bad drought.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#94 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 11:28 am

Stormcenter wrote:Well looking at the latest satellite loop in sure looks
like 99L is trying to get better organized. The conditions
currently don't look as hostile as yesterday.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html


It looks like most of the thunderstorms are forming along and east of the trof axis. It's going to have hard time wrapping around those storms around the center, with all the shear and dry air coming in from west and SW.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#95 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Oct 16, 2007 11:41 am

cycloneye wrote:Image

Very good news for those areas that are in deficit of rainfall this year.


The GFS late last week was showing a piece of vorticity at 850 mb, along with some rain, coming out of the BoC and heading towards the Redneck Riviera.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#96 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Oct 16, 2007 11:45 am

What exatly is the "Redneck Riviera"?
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#97 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Oct 16, 2007 11:50 am

99L has about 12 hours max to do anything before it gets into a very undesirable environment closer to the coast as it heads NW and/or N. Local ocm said it has a "chance" at becoming a TD or TS within the 12 hour timeframe. However if it does when it gets closer to the coast it will get torn apart.

That huge blob of rain to the NE of 99L is headed inland, which is good, but most of it won't make it up into the other areas that really need it too, besides the FL panhandle. At least some areas will get some benefit though.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#98 Postby lrak » Tue Oct 16, 2007 11:58 am

Ivanhater wrote:What exatly is the "Redneck Riviera"?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerald_Coast


Image
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#99 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Oct 16, 2007 12:17 pm

Ivanhater wrote:What exatly is the "Redneck Riviera"?


I drink beer and go to NASCAR races. Its all good.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#100 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Oct 16, 2007 12:41 pm

Interesting...I wasnt aware we had anymore rednecks then any other part of the southeast 8-)
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