Tropical Low 01F SE of Papua New Guinea (ex-93P)

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Coredesat

Tropical Low 01F SE of Papua New Guinea (ex-93P)

#1 Postby Coredesat » Wed Oct 17, 2007 12:04 am

Appeared earlier, this would be the first invest of the 2007-08 year for the Southwest Pacific:

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Re: INVEST 93P SE of Papua New Guinea

#2 Postby Sanibel » Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:09 am

I think that would be our equivalent of April down there.
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Coredesat

#3 Postby Coredesat » Wed Oct 17, 2007 11:48 am

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1S
165.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 165.1E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM EAST
OF AUKI HARBOR, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 170606 SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WHICH IS
SLOWLY ORGANIZING AROUND AN ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IN ADDITION TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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Re: INVEST 93P SE of Papua New Guinea

#4 Postby P.K. » Wed Oct 17, 2007 12:50 pm

FQAU20 ABRF 170815
IDQ10007
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA 10
NORTH EASTERN AREA EQUATOR TO 28S, 142E TO 170E
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE
FOR 24 HOURS FROM 1100UTC 17 October 2007

PART 1 WARNINGS
Nil.

PART 2 SITUATION
At 170600UTC.
Tropical trough 03S142E to first Low 1007hPa near 9S154E to 4S155E to 6S155E to
a second low near 11S170E
. A high 1030hPa is centred near 40S 145E and is
expected near 34S159E by 171100UTC.

PART 3 FORECAST
North of tropical trough.
NE/NW winds 5/15 knots. Slight seas. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

Southwest of a line from 20S148E to 28S163E.
S/SE winds 25/33 knots with a rough sea developing on a moderate SE swell.
Winds easing only a little to 20/30 knots after 171800UTC. Isolated showers.

Elsewhere.
SE winds 10/20 knots throughout at first though winds west of 160E increasing to
20/30 knots after 171500UTC. Moderate to rough seas on a moderate SE swell.
Isolated showers.
WEATHER BRISBANE
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Re: INVEST 93P SE of Papua New Guinea

#5 Postby P.K. » Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:57 pm

01F has formed.

FQPS01 NFFN 171800
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Oct 172000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING NIL.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Oct 181800 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD 01F [1006HPA] NEAR 10.1S 166.0E AT 181800Z
SLOW MOVING, CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF 01F.


WEAK LOW L1 [1013HPA] NEAR 21S 152W MOVING SOUTH 05 KNOTS.

CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 02S 160E 07S 167E TO 01F SLOW MOVING. POOR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150
MILES CZ1.

CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 17S 175E 10S 180 07S 170W 07S 170W 14S 145W 22S
149W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CZ2.

FROM L1 TO FRONT F1 24S 150W 20S 145W 10S 132W 15S 120W. F1 MOVING
SOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS IN AREA WEST OF 145W AND NORTH 10 KNOTS. POOR
VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
150 MILES OF F1.

TROUGH T1 05S 160E TO 01F TO 15S 169E 20S 175E 23S 175W SLOW MOVING.
POOR VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
150 MILES OF T1.

IN AREA BETWEEN 160W AND 135W AND SOUTH OF 17S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND UPTO 30 KN0TS AT TIMES. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS.

IN AREA WEST OF 175W AND SOUTH OF T1 EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS. A MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL.

WITHIN 180 MILES ON NORTHERN SIDE OF T1 AND SOUTH OF 20S NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS.

EAST OF 170W AND SOUTH OF 05S, MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL,
BECOMING HEAVY SOUTH OF 10S AND EAST OF 130W, GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST.
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#6 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:42 pm

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Oct 17/2329 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 10.4S 166.0E AT
172100Z SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD. POSITION POOR BASED ON GMSIR/VIS WITH
ANIMATION. SST IN THE AREA IS AROUND 29C.

AT THIS STAGE IT IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE WHERE THE LLCC IS LOCATED BUT
RECENT VIS AND IR IMAGES SHOW ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS IN THE
VICINITY. CIMMS INDICATES THAT 01F REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIROMENT
WITH AN AREA OF STRONG SHEAR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. 01F
CURRENTLY LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, HOWEVER, A WESTERLY SHEAR
IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SEEMS TO BE
ACTING ON THE CLOUD CLUSTER IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. AN ACTIVE
CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE NORTH WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPORT THE SYSTEM WHILE A GOOD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EVIDENT TO THE SOUTH. CLOUD TOPS ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW THAT THEY ARE WARMING AND ORGANSITION REMAINS DETACHED FROM
ANALSYED LLC.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS [ECMWF,GASP,GFS,TXLAPS] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM
BUT DO NOT HAVE IT DEEPING OR DEVELOPING ANY FURTHER IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ECMWF HAS 01F MOVING SOUTHWEST WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS HAVE IT
MOVING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD.
POTENTIAL FOR 01F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
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Coredesat

#7 Postby Coredesat » Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:15 pm

Looking a little better. WPAC Floater 2 is over this system.

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Re: Tropical Depression 01F SE of Papua New Guinea (93P)

#8 Postby RattleMan » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:32 pm

Downgraded:

------------------

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Oct 182000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING NIL.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Oct 191800 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD 01F [1004HPA] NEAR 12.0S 164.0E AT 181800Z
SLOW MOVING, CLOCKWISE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF 01F.
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Coredesat

#9 Postby Coredesat » Fri Oct 19, 2007 7:30 am

No longer a tropical disturbance.

WWPS21 NFFN 190900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Oct 19/0946 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL LOW 01F [1008HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.0S 166.0E AT 181800Z SLOW
MOVING. SYSTEM IS SHEARED AND IS WEAKENING.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
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Coredesat

#10 Postby Coredesat » Fri Oct 19, 2007 12:30 pm

Gone from NRL. If this doesn't appear in Nadi's next tropical disturbance summary, I'll archive this.
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Coredesat

#11 Postby Coredesat » Fri Oct 19, 2007 8:09 pm

LOW L1 [1008HPA] NEAR 12.0S 166.0E AT 190600Z SLOW MOVING.

And that would be it.
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