Severe Tropical Storm KAJIKI (0719)

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Coredesat

Severe Tropical Storm KAJIKI (0719)

#1 Postby Coredesat » Wed Oct 17, 2007 11:50 am

Image

The image isn't centered, it's the large blob toward the bottom. From JTWC:

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N
152.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 150.0E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM EAST
OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION WHICH
HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST 06 HOURS. CURRENT LOW LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS
NOT REVEALED A DISCERNABLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ALOFT. THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR IN THE SLOWLY ORGANIZING DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
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Re: INVEST 90W near Mariana Islands

#2 Postby P.K. » Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:39 pm

Up to a 30kt TD.

WWJP25 RJTD 181800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 1010 HPA
AT 39N 163E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER LOW 1012 HPA AT 40N 174E
MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA
AT 56N 176E BERING SEA MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1016 HPA
AT 40N 128E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 40N 128E TO 39N 130E 38N 132E.
COLD FRONT FROM 40N 128E TO 38N 126E 36N 122E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 18.6N 144.7E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER NORTHERN PART OF SEA OF OKHOTSK.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 49N 152E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 152E TO 36N 158E 39N 163E 39N 169E 40N 174E
37N 179E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:19 pm

Image

WAKE UP PEOPLE!!!
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:20 pm

WTPN21 PGTW 182000 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.5N 145.8E TO 23.4N 141.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.8N 145.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9N
149.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
NORTH OF SAIPAN. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES
TO CONSOLIDATE. A 181717Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC, AND GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE
CYCLONE. A 180758Z WINDSAT PASS REVEALS SOME 20 KT UNFLAGGED WINDS
NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEVELOPING ANTI-
CYCLONE JUST TO THE NORTH OF SYSTEM IS CONTRIBUTING TO RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE DISTURBANCE.
ADDITIONALLY, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 192000Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED GRAMMAR.


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#5 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:21 pm

Wow! That is quite the improvement in 6 hours.
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:23 pm

Some agencies really need Image to wake up!!!
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:32 pm

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"What a beauty" RIP Steve Irwin!
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 18, 2007 6:13 pm

Image
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Re: INVEST 90W near Mariana Islands: TCFA issued

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:37 pm

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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 18, 2007 8:06 pm

Image

Image

I don't want to inquire more about this system because it would surely sound like I'm bashing a Meteorological agency!!
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#11 Postby Coredesat » Thu Oct 18, 2007 8:09 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 19.0N 144.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 20.0N 142.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

To be blunt, this system looks stronger than that.
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 18, 2007 9:52 pm

Image

Looks a lot better than Kiko.
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#13 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 18, 2007 11:21 pm

QS shows 40-45kt.
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Re:

#14 Postby WindRunner » Fri Oct 19, 2007 12:03 am

HURAKAN wrote:I don't want to inquire more about this system because it would surely sound like I'm bashing a Meteorological agency!!


Inquiring never hurt anyone . . . personally, I think it's still borderline, which leaves the questions . . . TS or STS? :wink:
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#15 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 19, 2007 1:32 am

306
TCNA21 RJTD 190600
CCAA 19060 47644 NAMELESS 25197 11429 1329/ 230//=

Jump to T3.0 so we probably have a 40 kt TS.
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Re: Tropical Depression near Mariana Islands (19W)

#16 Postby RattleMan » Fri Oct 19, 2007 2:16 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0719 KAJIKI (0719) UPGRADED FROM TD

ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 19.8N 142.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 110NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 23.2N 140.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 210600UTC 27.0N 141.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 220600UTC 32.1N 147.3E 270NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
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Re: Tropical Depression near Mariana Islands (19W)

#17 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Fri Oct 19, 2007 2:35 am

Looks like this one's going to recurve but forecast to make it to 50kts STS before weakening. This season is starting to catch up with the average after being way behind for a while. This is 19th storm of the year and the average by now is 21.8.
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 19, 2007 5:44 am

617
WTPQ20 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0719 KAJIKI (0719)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 20.2N 142.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT

30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 200900UTC 24.3N 140.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 210600UTC 27.0N 141.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 220600UTC 32.1N 147.3E 270NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 19, 2007 6:41 am

WOW:

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Re: Tropical Storm Kajiki (19W) moving towards Iwo Jima

#20 Postby P.K. » Fri Oct 19, 2007 7:06 am

Up to T3.5 now from the T3.0 Chacor posted earlier.
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