Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

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cycloneye
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Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2007 7:50 am

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Link to thread at Talking Tropics forum

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98752&p=1657512#p1657512

Post away about this invest.
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Re: INVEST 90L Near Northern Leewards: Discussions & Images

#2 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 25, 2007 8:04 am

As I said in the other thread before it was closed - I'm unimpressed. Development chances 20% tops. Probably less. Tremendous shear. Models aren't very good at predicting TC genesis, and they're probably going to be even worse at such predictions when shear is high. Could be all that will develop is a weak wave/low along the strong cold front in the southern/southeastern Gulf next week.

By the way, the weak low moved 214nm in 24 hours toward 292 degrees (8.9kts). It's about 80 miles north of the BVI now near 19.5N/63.4W. It was near 18.5N/61W this time yesterday.
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Hurricane NOEL Models Thread

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2007 8:09 am

WHXX01 KWBC 251306
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1306 UTC THU OCT 25 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20071025 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071025 1200 071026 0000 071026 1200 071027 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 63.3W 19.6N 65.4W 19.9N 68.0W 20.4N 70.8W
BAMD 19.2N 63.3W 18.8N 64.2W 18.3N 65.2W 18.0N 66.5W
BAMM 19.2N 63.3W 19.1N 65.0W 18.8N 66.9W 18.8N 69.1W
LBAR 19.2N 63.3W 19.3N 64.3W 19.1N 65.7W 19.1N 67.7W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071027 1200 071028 1200 071029 1200 071030 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.9N 74.0W 21.8N 79.7W 22.6N 83.5W 22.0N 86.1W
BAMD 18.0N 67.9W 18.7N 70.1W 19.6N 71.8W 21.4N 73.9W
BAMM 18.9N 71.5W 19.3N 75.9W 20.3N 79.3W 22.2N 81.7W
LBAR 19.2N 70.0W 21.0N 74.5W 23.8N 76.3W 27.3N 74.0W
SHIP 31KTS 37KTS 45KTS 45KTS
DSHP 27KTS 34KTS 42KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 63.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.8N LONM12 = 62.3W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 17.9N LONM24 = 60.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: INVEST 90L Near Northern Leewards: Discussions & Images

#4 Postby dtrain44 » Thu Oct 25, 2007 8:15 am

If the models are right in tracking the invest (not that the BAM and LBAR should be all that authoritative), it doesn't have a lot of time to get going before Hispaniola. Based on this alone, I'm not sure what kind of future 90L has......
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Re: INVEST 90L Near Northern Leewards: Discussions & Images

#5 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Oct 25, 2007 8:19 am

wxman57 wrote:As I said in the other thread before it was closed - I'm unimpressed. Development chances 20% tops. Probably less. Tremendous shear. Models aren't very good at predicting TC genesis, and they're probably going to be even worse at such predictions when shear is high. Could be all that will develop is a weak wave/low along the strong cold front in the southern/southeastern Gulf next week.

By the way, the weak low moved 214nm in 24 hours toward 292 degrees (8.9kts). It's about 80 miles north of the BVI now near 19.5N/63.4W. It was near 18.5N/61W this time yesterday.



Well, I know what Mr. Ortt thinks of the European, but it slams Florida in 10 days. Canadian and NOGAPS seem similar. GFS lowers pressure, but doesn't seem as excited.


Not wishing a hurricane on anyone, but if this has to hit somewhere in the US (assuming it ever forms) I hope a weakening but moisture laden system drops about 10 inches of rain on the Lake Lanier watershed. The Euro is the lower Gulf Coast of Florida, which might cheat Georgia out of the serious rain.
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Re: INVEST 90L Near Northern Leewards: Discussions & Images

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2007 8:25 am

Image

Image
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#7 Postby caribepr » Thu Oct 25, 2007 8:30 am

Regardless of whether it develops more, our local discussion makes it worth paying attention to for the big island of PR especially...

From the SJU discussion:

Recent rains have left large
areas at or near saturation across interior and west PR...and
mudslides were reported yesterday in Utuado. Continued rains
through the weekend will likely cause flooding problems across
Puerto Rico and potential for mudslides...and possibly the Virgin
Islands Friday and Sat. This is shaping up to be the most
significant rain event of the fall wet season thus far...so local
interests and emergency managers keep abreast of ensuing
forecasts.
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Re:

#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2007 8:34 am

caribepr wrote:Regardless of whether it develops more, our local discussion makes it worth paying attention to for the big island of PR especially...

From the SJU discussion:

Recent rains have left large
areas at or near saturation across interior and west PR...and
mudslides were reported yesterday in Utuado. Continued rains
through the weekend will likely cause flooding problems across
Puerto Rico and potential for mudslides...and possibly the Virgin
Islands Friday and Sat. This is shaping up to be the most
significant rain event of the fall wet season thus far...so local
interests and emergency managers keep abreast of ensuing
forecasts.


Very true mj.Even is it does not develop,a prolonged period of rain until the weekend will not be good for parts of the island.Mudslides also are a good possibility.I will post reports from here.

Image
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Re: INVEST 90L Near Northern Leewards: Discussions & Images

#9 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 25, 2007 8:41 am

IMO, this invest doesn't look to bad, we've seen alot worse. Good cyclonic rotation and convection building near the center. Again the shear and the mountains will be it's demise if it follows the initial tracks.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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Re: INVEST 90L Models Thread

#10 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Oct 25, 2007 8:44 am

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Re: INVEST 90L Models Thread

#12 Postby ronjon » Thu Oct 25, 2007 8:51 am

Tropical Models:

Image
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Re: INVEST 90L Models Thread

#13 Postby drezee » Thu Oct 25, 2007 9:05 am

Image
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#14 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Oct 25, 2007 9:12 am

no recon planned

Not really sure why this was made an invest if recon is not planned for something so close to Puerto Rico
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Re: INVEST 90L Near Northern Leewards: Discussions & Images

#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2007 9:27 am

Maybe I am speculating,but they put the invest to have the people who live in PR, .U.S.VI, BVI and Northern Leewards more aware of the weather expected.Yes,in a normal way,they have the invests up that are close to land when recon is planned.
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Re: INVEST 90L Near Northern Leewards: Discussions & Images

#16 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 25, 2007 9:37 am

I see no one is making dire predictions for a south Florida strike. lol. Good to see they are finally learning their lesson. (Now because I said that we'll probably have a freak Miami hurricane) But you have to assume this is in the sour spot for 2007 where Ingrid and several other good waves fizzled after spinning up. This alone would make me discount it.
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Re:

#17 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 25, 2007 9:38 am

Derek Ortt wrote:no recon planned

Not really sure why this was made an invest if recon is not planned for something so close to Puerto Rico


At the risk of being blasted by some here just for suggesting this, but perhaps the forecasters just wanted to see what the models might say, even though they don't expect it to develop (as they stated in the tropical outlook)? Yes, there's a small chance of development. And if it does develop then it could become at least a rainfall threat to southern Florida and/or the Bahamas next week. Why not just declare it an invest so the models can be run? That would explain why no recon is scheduled, as there really isn't much to fly into.
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Re: INVEST 90L Near Northern Leewards: Discussions & Images

#18 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 25, 2007 9:41 am

cycloneye wrote:Maybe I am speculating,but they put the invest to have the people who live in PR, .U.S.VI, BVI and Northern Leewards more aware of the weather expected.Yes,in a normal way,they have the invests up that are close to land when recon is planned.


An argument against that theory, cycloneye, is that invests are not made public. The only people who would know that an "invest" was declared would be us weather nuts. I'd wager that 99% or more of the general public have absolutely no idea what an "invest" means. I speak to at least 5000 people a year during the spring conference/seminar tour and I doubt more than a handfull would know what an invest is.
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#19 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Oct 25, 2007 9:49 am

Yes Wxman.. When I say the word invest to the "General Public" none of them ever know what I am talking about..

This was declared an invest so they could run the models on it. No doubt
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Re: INVEST 90L Near Northern Leewards: Discussions & Images

#20 Postby ronjon » Thu Oct 25, 2007 9:52 am

90L looks better organized than 6 hours ago. Convection has increased and has drawn closer to the center. The center still elongated near 19N-63.5W but I also see another turning near 19.5N-62.5W under the deep convection. Am I seeing an LLC and MLC? Or is it possibly a relocation of the LLC?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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