Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF



The HWRF intensity model has a weak storm moving towards the eastern part of the Florida Penninsula.

[wxman57]

And here's the 168hr European using a 1mb analysis. I added the frontal boundary. Fairly strong front sweeping across the eastern Gulf (and Florida) by next Thursday. Looks like EC is shifting east with the track, or at least it should with the strength of the high pushing out into the Gulf. I only get the EC through 168 hours here. Have to wait for the low-res version at the ecmwf web site for beyond 168hrs.

[Fego]

Convection is increasing, as I can see...
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

25/1745 UTC 19.0N 64.2W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[caribepr]

Oh, I wish you all could see this view. The sun is out now, making the hills, which are GREEN GREEN GREEN from the rains, almost fluorescent against a pewter sky, edged by the pewter colored water of the bay.
The moon will be up in a couple of hours, almost full, and sure to be dramatic. I don't know what this invest is going to do, but for now, the effects here are very beautiful. BVIgal, and the rest of you around this part of the world, I hope you are getting this as well.
We live in such a fragile place, for big storms, but so much of the time, it's just a breathtaking place to live, and why it is so precious to us. Today is like that.

[AJC3]

And here's the 168hr European using a 1mb analysis. I added the frontal boundary. Fairly strong front sweeping across the eastern Gulf (and Florida) by next Thursday. Looks like EC is shifting east with the track, or at least it should with the strength of the high pushing out into the Gulf. I only get the EC through 168 hours here. Have to wait for the low-res version at the ecmwf web site for beyond 168hrs.

The high-res ECM from h180 thru h240 has a pretty goofy-looking solution. It actually splits the surface low in two, carrying one piece NE from western Cuba across the Bahamas and out to sea, whilst dropping the other piece back southward into the southwestern Caribbean

[cycloneye]

San Juan Observations



The pressure keeps dropping at 3:00 PM is was at 1006 mbs and NNW wind.

St Croix Observations



Also 1006 mbs in St Croix with west winds.

[Fego]

Our Pro Met (Ada Monzón, Univisión TV) says that in Yabucoa (south-east) one of our station measured 1005 mb.

[Blown Away]

And here's the 168hr European using a 1mb analysis. I added the frontal boundary. Fairly strong front sweeping across the eastern Gulf (and Florida) by next Thursday. Looks like EC is shifting east with the track, or at least it should with the strength of the high pushing out into the Gulf. I only get the EC through 168 hours here. Have to wait for the low-res version at the ecmwf web site for beyond 168hrs.

That reminds me of 1999 Irene.

[cycloneye]

Our Pro Met (Ada Monzón, Univisión TV) says that in Yabucoa (south-east) one of our station measured 1005 mb.

Although not in Puerto Rico,there is a 1005 mb observation from Charlotte Amalie,St Thomas.

St Thomas Observations

[Typhoon_Willie]

You may want to check out the visible loop. Things maybe starting to get interesting...

[Derek Ortt]

looks close to a TD based upon the sat signature and surface obs (about the same as how gamma looked in the EC)

If the convection persists, I could see NHC writing advisories to highlight the flooding threat

[cycloneye]

And is moving slowly WSW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-vis.html

[wxman57]

And here's the 168hr European using a 1mb analysis. I added the frontal boundary. Fairly strong front sweeping across the eastern Gulf (and Florida) by next Thursday. Looks like EC is shifting east with the track, or at least it should with the strength of the high pushing out into the Gulf. I only get the EC through 168 hours here. Have to wait for the low-res version at the ecmwf web site for beyond 168hrs.

The high-res ECM from h180 thru h240 has a pretty goofy-looking solution. It actually splits the surface low in two, carrying one piece NE from western Cuba across the Bahamas and out to sea, whilst dropping the other piece back southward into the southwestern Caribbean

That's actually not too different from the GFS, which moves the vorticity center SW into Central America but develops a frontal low in the SE Gulf. It's a more reasonable solution with a moderate to strong cold front moving into the SE Gulf (and NW Caribbean) around the middle of next week to reinforce the cool air already in place.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes Derek that may very well be...Correct me if i am wrong but on the south side of the convection you can see the low level cloudlines converging northward toward the main area of convection...

[ronjon]

Luis, no 18Z tropical model runs yet?

[RL3AO]

I said I'd start caring if this became an invest so I am here for duty!

[wxman57]

Luis, no 18Z tropical model runs yet?

Nope. I don't think the NHC is too concerned about it, they just wanted to look at a model run this morning.

[Typhoon_Willie]

It does look interesting!

[curtadams]

Straight-up highly sheared TD with the classic choo-choo train convection. I doubt it will even be numbered though because it's heading into a higher shear region to the SW and will probably decouple in a few hours.