Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[fci]

Jeff Masters while uncertain about the future of 90L DOES mention the possibility of this thing getting going when it gets to the Western Carib.

From this morning's blog:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200710

On Friday and Saturday, 90L will move westward along or just south of Hispaniola, bringing heavy rain, flash flooding, and possible mudslides to that island. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict that wind shear will drop to 10-20 knots by Friday night, which may allow some slow development of the disturbance if the center remains over water. The GFS model keeps wind shear 20-30 knots through the period, and does not develop 90L. By Saturday, the storm will near Jamaica, and the ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict a tropical depression will form by Sunday. Steering currents grow weak on Monday, and the storm could stall out for many days in the Western Caribbean, in an area of low wind shear and high heat content waters. This may allow the system to intensify into a hurricane. The eventual fate of this system is highly uncertain, since steering currents will be so weak. Those of you planning to travel to the Western Caribbean next week should keep a close watch on this system. NHC has not scheduled any flights into 90L yet.

[cycloneye]

Agree wxman57 about the lack of knowledge of the general public about invests.But on TV sometimes here at least one pro met (Ada Monzon)that do the weather section at Univision let know the viewers about an area that is being monitored by NHC as an investigation area even if recon doesnt go.I agree without any doubt that they want to see what the models have for this system especially GFDL and HWRF.

[CrazyC83]

Hard to predict this one. It does have a window to develop, but has to stay in it.

[cycloneye]

12z NAM

For those who follow the NAM model here is the 12z run.Also I am posting it as the NWS San Juan discussions mentions that model a lot.

[Vortex]

This system will likely have a large wind radi once in the western carribean due to the pressure gradient. Also, a fairly favorable environment over the western carribean. 90L should be south of Cuba in about 3-4 days. At the very least florida will experience a strong NE fetch(25-35 mph) with locally heavy rains across the extreme south and keys. This may also last for 3-4 days with concerns of beach erosion and coastal flooding...Stay tuned


NAM 12Z H+84

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

NAM Loop
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ed Mahmoud]

I see no one is making dire predictions for a south Florida strike. lol. Good to see they are finally learning their lesson. (Now because I said that we'll probably have a freak Miami hurricane) But you have to assume this is in the sour spot for 2007 where Ingrid and several other good waves fizzled after spinning up. This alone would make me discount it.

Have you seen the 240 hour European?





I'm not saying I agree with anything. I'm just an interested observer.

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251502
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
SINCE YESTERDAY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME


RL3AO,how does the color graphic has this Tropical Weather Outlook?

[fci]

This system will likely have a large wind radi once in the western carribean due to the pressure gradient. Also, a fairly favorable environment over the western carribean. 90L should be south of Cuba in about 3-4 days. At the very least florida will experience a strong NE fetch(25-35 mph) with locally heavy rains across the extreme south and keys. This may also last for 3-4 days with concerns of beach erosion and coastal flooding...Stay tuned


NAM 12Z H+84

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

NAM Loop
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

We REALLY need to get a ton of rain from this and any other system that can provide it; before the rainy season ends.
Even with the deluges we have received in recent weeks; we will undoubtedly see the most severe water restrictions yet; if we don't get a whole lot more rain.
So, I hope the scenario you painted occurs and actually hope that a weak TS or TD comes up from the Carib and dumps copious amounts of rain on us.
I'll gladly skip anything stronger than a 40-45 MPH storm though.

[wxman57]

Vortex,

Those 25-35 kt winds in the models are post-frontal - cool air over warm water. It'll be very hard to distinguish between strong NE winds behind the front and any NE winds associated with this disturbance. In the western Gulf yesterday, northerly winds behind the front were 40-50 kts sustained with higher gusts, killing 18 people on a rig in the Bay of Campeche. That same front will extend across the southern Gulf late in the weekend and early next week. I don't think the models are handling this situation very well at all. They're not really designed with TC genesis in mind. The fairly strong front into the southern Gulf and NW Caribbean may be causing them problems.

[cycloneye]

Derek,the TWO explains it all about the question of why invest now without recon.They will wait for the system to get to the Caribbean sea to then start the missions.

[wxman57]

Derek,the TWO explains it all about the question of why invest now without recon.They will wait for the system to get to the Caribbean sea to then start the missions.

I believe that Dererk's point was that an invest is typically declared when development IS expected the next day or two, not when no development is expected over the next few days. I think they just wanted to be able to run the models before development became imminent.

[Thunder44]

Maybe I am speculating,but they put the invest to have the people who live in PR, .U.S.VI, BVI and Northern Leewards more aware of the weather expected.Yes,in a normal way,they have the invests up that are close to land when recon is planned.

An argument against that theory, cycloneye, is that invests are not made public. The only people who would know that an "invest" was declared would be us weather nuts. I'd wager that 99% or more of the general public have absolutely no idea what an "invest" means. I speak to at least 5000 people a year during the spring conference/seminar tour and I doubt more than a handfull would know what an invest is.

Yeah, wxman57, but that may be change soon. The invests are being put up Weatherunderground this year for more to see and Jeff Masters discusses all of them. I seen Drudge link to this site occasionally.

[Steve H.]

I am going to watching the trends in the Euro, which spins up a hurricane and sends it across Cuba and into southern Florida way out at 240 hours. This isn't totally unrealistic, and typically the Euro doesn't overemphasize these things. The NOGAPS has been onto this idea for days. Need to look at the trends over the next few days. The cold front affecting the western GOM will have become occluded and back up north by late in the period. Prior to the low developing in the Caribbean. This situation is quite interesting. Later in the weekend we may have more clues as to how this will pan out.

[dtrain44]

I think the Weather Underground crowd isn't really representative of the general public either, though. I'd say that the internet obviously makes it a lot easier to get that information, but that nobody in the general public is going to know much about invests unless there's a prediction for one to slam right into them - thankfully, most people who would talk about invests wouldn't make such a bold prediction....except on boards, right?

[Thunder44]

Derek,the TWO explains it all about the question of why invest now without recon.They will wait for the system to get to the Caribbean sea to then start the missions.

I'm not so sure. I think they would at least task a flight out there on Saturday. I think the plane would need to depart for St. Croix, one day in advance.

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

Maybe I am speculating,but they put the invest to have the people who live in PR, .U.S.VI, BVI and Northern Leewards more aware of the weather expected.Yes,in a normal way,they have the invests up that are close to land when recon is planned.

An argument against that theory, cycloneye, is that invests are not made public. The only people who would know that an "invest" was declared would be us weather nuts. I'd wager that 99% or more of the general public have absolutely no idea what an "invest" means. I speak to at least 5000 people a year during the spring conference/seminar tour and I doubt more than a handfull would know what an invest is.

Yeah, wxman57, but that may be change soon. The invests are being put up Weatherunderground this year for more to see and Jeff Masters discusses all of them. I seen Drudge link to this site occasionally.

Only weather nuts visit the Weatherunderground and Jeff Master's blog. That's not being made public. What I mean by being made public would be for the NHC to issue advisories every 6-12 hours, including a track forecast, just as they do with named storms. These advisories (text and graphics) would be posted on the NHC web page, displayed on The Weather Channel and the local evening weathercasts. Until that happens, they're not really made public.

By the way, I did just put out a forecast track on the disturbance for our customers. We do that for any disturbance which might threaten any of our clients in the Gulf of Mexico. It's something they need to know, as preparations for a potential impact offshore can take as long as 7 days - long before any development occurs. When I told Chris Landsea we were issuing 7-day tracks on any strong disturbances and asked him when the NHC would be doing the same you should have seen how big his eyes got! Of course, their job (NHC) is to serve the general public, not private businesses like offshore operators.

[Derek Ortt]

This somewhat reminds me of Gamma's formation in the EC in 2005. Was able to briefly become a TS before being sheared apart, then reformed in the WC

[bvigal]

Hmm well I've reading right along here this morning. Howdy neighbors!! :wave: I'll say one thing, wish I had $5 for every invest that never had a recon - I could take a vaca to the mainland.

[Vortex]

No Recon means it will probablly develop right over Puerto rico Tonight/Friday

On a serious note this does have the potential to cause excessive flooding concerns for PR and DR...