Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[fci]

I think the Weather Underground crowd isn't really representative of the general public either, though. I'd say that the internet obviously makes it a lot easier to get that information, but that nobody in the general public is going to know much about invests unless there's a prediction for one to slam right into them - thankfully, most people who would talk about invests wouldn't make such a bold prediction....except on boards, right?

I think that when an area is coined an "invest" that local mets pick up on it and will mention it on their weathercasts.

When websites like Weather Underground start putting them up on the site there has to be more attention paid to them. I don't know how many hits Wunderground gets but it certainly adds more visibility to areas formerly known as "areas of disturbed weather" and largely ignored.

[Derek Ortt]

I have heard some preliminary talk of 10 day forecasts in the not too distant future

[cycloneye]

Hmm well I've reading right along here this morning. Howdy neighbors!! :wave: I'll say one thing, wish I had $5 for every invest that never had a recon - I could take a vaca to the mainland.

Hi my friend,how is the weather over there in terms of wind directions,pressure and rain?

[dtrain44]

I think that when an area is coined an "invest" that local mets pick up on it and will mention it on their weathercasts.

When websites like Weather Underground start putting them up on the site there has to be more attention paid to them. I don't know how many hits Wunderground gets but it certainly adds more visibility to areas formerly known as "areas of disturbed weather" and largely ignored.

That may well be. Being in Norman, we don't deal much with tropical weather on the local forecasts. Invests are certainly more publicized now than in the past: I'd just argue that the vast majority of the public knows nothing until a TD forms, and that many require a TS/hurricane to threaten the U.S. before they'll know it's out there......

[x-y-no]

I have heard some preliminary talk of 10 day forecasts in the not too distant future

Wow ... that's mightily ambitious.

Would be terrific if they could develop real skill at that range.

[x-y-no]

That may well be. Being in Norman, we don't deal much with tropical weather on the local forecasts. Invests are certainly more publicized now than in the past: I'd just argue that the vast majority of the public knows nothing until a TD forms, and that many require a TS/hurricane to threaten the U.S. before they'll know it's out there......

Even here in Miami, most of my non-weather-nut friends are oblivious to anything less than a TD. Mostly they figure I'll be telling them all about anything forming long before they really care.

[wxman57]

I have heard some preliminary talk of 10 day forecasts in the not too distant future

10-day track forecasts or just a discussion covering the next 10 days? We've been discussing the next week or two in our tropical outlooks since I've been working here 26 years.

[bvigal]

Good morning, Luis! Our airport at 11am measured variable 2kt. Just talked to a ship with due west 6-10kt. Waiting for 12pm to come in now. Will post when available. Swell has increased in the last 4hrs, with breaking waves now appearing on north side coastlines.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS moves the vorticity center inland into Honduras/Nicaragua early next week. Not unrealistic, as it shows a fairly strong cold front extending across the FL Straits, western Cuba, and into the NW Caribbean.

[bvigal]

Code: Select all

10/25/2007 16:10   Le Raizet   16.27N   61.53W   S (170 degrees) at 10 kt   1009.1 mb   86.0°F   75.2°F   70%   
10/25/2007 16:00   Coolidge/Antigua   17.12N   61.78W   S (180 degrees) at 10 kt   1009.1 mb   86.0°F   73.4°F   66%   
10/25/2007 15:00   Wall Blake   18.18N   63.03W   W (260 degrees) at 12 kt   1009.1 mb   78.8°F   71.6°F   79%   
10/25/2007 16:00   St Maarten Julia   18.05N   63.12W   SW (230 degrees) at 11 kt   1009.1 mb   84.2°F   73.4°F   70%   
10/25/2007 15:00   Beef Island BVI   18.45N   64.53W   Variable at 2 kt   1009.1 mb   82.4°F   73.4°F   74%   
10/25/2007 15:53   Christiansted   17.70N   64.80W   WSW (240 degrees) at 10 kt   1009.5 mb   84.9°F   72.0°F   65%   
10/25/2007 16:04   St Thomas (King)   18.33N   64.98W   E (80 degrees) at 3 kt   1008.5 mb   78.8°F   77.0°F   94%   Heavy Rain, Mist
10/25/2007 16:02   Roosevelt Rd Nas   18.25N   65.63W   Variable at 5 kt   1008.8 mb   82.4°F   73.4°F   74%   
10/25/2007 15:56   San Juan/Wfo   18.43N   66.02W   NNW (340 degrees) at 5 kt   1009.1 mb   84.0°F   73.9°F   72%   



temp measures are Temperature, Dew Point, Relative Humidity

[Derek Ortt]

I heard 10 day forecasts, but only mentioned in passing at this time

[BatzVI]

It finally stopped raining here in St. Thomas....came down hard for a while...I'm sure there is still more to go.....no wind in town area (southside).....

[weatherornot]

Wxman - Do you still feel less than 20% chance for development?

[Thunder44]

I heard 10 day forecasts, but only mentioned in passing at this time

10 day forecasts are a big jump from 5 days. Are they really becoming that confident in that range to put out an actuall forecast. I imagine intensity forecasts would be even worse then they are now.

[cycloneye]

The midday summary from the NWS in San Juan.



000
AWCA82 TJSJ 251602
RWSPR

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1100 AM AST THU OCT 25 2007

VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE
NOTED...MAINLY OVER CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...THE INTERIOR...NORTH AND
EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. BY LATE
MORNING...TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE 70S OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO MOSTLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE. THE WIND WAS NORTH
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR...SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING ARE EXPECTED AS THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS PASS BY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE NORTH
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS LATE THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
FLOODING OVER PARTS OR ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS OF 11 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 8 FEET
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE ANEGADA AND
MONA PASSAGES AND SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON.

[Steve H.]

Question for the floor, does anyone have a link to a higher resolution of the Euro? I seem to remember we used to have more detailed maps. RSVP.

[wxman57]

It finally stopped raining here in St. Thomas....came down hard for a while...I'm sure there is still more to go.....no wind in town area (southside).....

Satellite indicates just a few small showers over St. Thomas. Sunshine all around you. Nearest heavy squalls are 130 miles to your east. Here's a satellite with surface obs plotted for your area.

[msbee]

I'm confused .
the title of this thread states this is near BVI. But the convection on the satellite looks like it is still east of us.
and BVI is west of us.
I am wondering if it is indeed going SW and if it will cross our area before it reaches BVI...It sure looks like it.
The problem for any of the islands with these systems is even when they don't develop, they can cause serious flooding, particularly for an island like PR with all its mountains.
And this seems to be very slow moving.

[cycloneye]

I'm confused .
the title of this thread states this is near BVI. But the convection on the satellite looks like it is still east of us.
and BVI is west of us.
I am wondering if it is indeed going SW and if it will cross our area before it reaches BVI...It sure looks like it.
The problem for any of the islands with these systems is even when they don't develop, they can cause serious flooding, particularly for an island like PR with all its mountains.
And this seems to be very slow moving.

Hi Barbara.The title says near British Virgin Islands refers to the low pressure where is centered,not the whole convection mass of showers and squalls.The title will change a lot as the low moves.Tonight for example it may say,Just North of San Juan.

[BatzVI]

All I was saying is that it rained here in STT (medium to hard rain) for about an hour.....I wasn't saying the mass was here...though it appears our weather will go downhill as the day goes on...