Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

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drezee
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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3821 Postby drezee » Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:53 am

Will someone tell me why a extratropical system is producing deep convection 30 miles NE of the center? Looks to be closer to subtropical than extra tropical. Broad pressure centers are nothing new, remember Isabel.

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Last edited by drezee on Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3822 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:55 am

Image

Not unheard of to have convection near the centre in clearly extratropical systems.
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Re:

#3823 Postby drezee » Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:57 am

Chacor wrote:Not unheard of to have convection near the centre in clearly extratropical systems.


Sure on the W side due to baroclinic processes...but no in the E and NE quad. Look at the loop...that is convective.
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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3824 Postby drezee » Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:07 am

Also recon from overnight support subtropical classification. Center was measured at 9.3C...1-2 C above the surrounding area...
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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3825 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:14 am

It might be getting more convective, as it is moving over the Gulf Stream now.
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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3826 Postby btangy » Sat Nov 03, 2007 7:29 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
441 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2007

**THE POWERFUL AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
NOEL WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO THIS EVENING**

THE POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE NOEL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. IN
A NUTSHELL...HAVE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED THE FORECAST FROM WHAT
WE HAD GOING EARLIER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS TO DO WITH TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM SINCE IT IS A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.

THE 00Z MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM VERY WELL...ALL WERE
TOO WEAK. THE BEST ESTIMATION OF CENTRAL PRESSURE AS OF 07Z WAS
APPROXIMATELY 975 MB. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE 12KM NAM/SUNY
MM5/RGEM INITIALIZED THE SYSTEM BETTER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS SINCE
THE CORE IS STILL VERY COMPACT. IT IS THESE MODELS THAT PROG THE
CLOSEST PASS TO CAPE COD THIS EVENING...MISSING IT TO THE EAST BY AN
AVERAGE OF ONLY 50-60 MILES WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 970 MB.
GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND BETTER INITIALIZATION BY THE
MESOSCALE MODELS...PREFERRED TO FOLLOW THE NAM /FOR THE MOST PART/
FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE TIMING OF
THE HIGHEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS BY ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS. THIS
MEANS THAT THE NASTIEST AND MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WILL
OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE
THEREFORE ADJUSTED THE VARIOUS WARNINGS/ADVISORIES TO START A BIT
LATER...AS WELL AS END LATER IN THE EVENING.

THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND RHODE ISLAND. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST AND MOST DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE GUSTS OF HURRICANE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS A RESULT...ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. ELSEWHERE IN THE HIGH WIND
WARNING...WIND GUSTS OF 60-65 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND THIS WILL CAUSE
NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.

THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT TIER OF ZONES TO
THE WEST OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING...AND THIS INCLUDES NORTHEAST CT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WORCESTER HILLS...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING NOREASTER. THIS STORM SHOULD BE TAKEN
AS SERIOUSLY AS A HURRICANE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ANY
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS MORNING IN THE HIGH WIND
WARNING REGION.
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Re: Extratropical NOEL Advisories

#3827 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2007 7:33 am

WOCN31 CWHX 031200
POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT
SATURDAY 03 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12.00 NOON ADT
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT FULL STATEMENT ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT.

...VERY LARGE AND DANGEROUS POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST
TO CROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.5 N AND LONGITUDE 70.3 W... ABOUT 280 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 520 KM SOUTH OF CAPE COD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 974
MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS... 46 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
NOV 03 9.00 AM 36.5N 70.3W 974 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 3.00 PM 38.9N 68.7W 972 80 148 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 9.00 PM 41.3N 67.6W 969 80 148 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 2.00 AM 43.8N 66.6W 968 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 8.00 AM 46.8N 64.9W 968 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 2.00 PM 50.0N 63.2W 969 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 8.00 PM 52.9N 61.7W 971 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 2.00 AM 55.7N 60.0W 972 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 8.00 AM 57.8N 58.4W 973 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 2.00 PM 60.0N 57.0W 977 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 8.00 PM 62.1N 55.8W 983 45 83 POST-TROPICAL

THE CENTRE OF POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST
WEST OF YARMOUTH..INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY THEN OVER EASTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY SUNDAY. THE CENTRE SHOULD THEN CROSS CENTRAL
LABRADOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH NOEL IS A POST-TROPICAL STORM WE EXPECT IT TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED NOT TO
FOCUS ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM CENTRE SINCE THE HIGH WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS WILL EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE TRACK LINE ITSELF.

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA ...
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 140 KM/H AT THE COAST FROM YARMOUTH EASTWARD
TO THE HALIFAX AREA. GUSTS TO 120 KM/H ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA..EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK..PEI AND
THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS. ADDITIONALLY..LES SUETES AND WRECKHOUSE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 150 KM/H ARE FORECAST.

HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR OR WEST OF THE STORM TRACK IN
NEW BRUNSWICK.. AND OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND ATLANTIC COASTAL
NOVA SCOTIA. 50 TO 70 MM ARE POSSIBLE.

DANGEROUS POUNDING SURF CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA
SCOTIA..THE BAY OF FUNDY AND SOUTH-FACING SHORELINES IN THE GULF OF
ST LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. STORM SURGE IS UNLIKELY TO
BE A MAJOR PROBLEM BECAUSE WE ARE APPROACHING NEAP TIDE.
WE DO NOT EXPECT THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL TO BE MUCH ABOVE HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.

DAMAGE/IMPACTS
WHERE WIND GUSTS TO AND ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE (120 KM/H) ARE FORECAST
..EXPECT TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES TO BREAK WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
DOWNED POWER LINES AND POWER INTERUPTIONS. SOME TREES WILL LIKELY BE
UPROOTED. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO ROOFING AND CLADDING
MATERIAL ON SOME HOMES. SOME SIGNAGE COULD ALSO SUFFER DAMAGE WITH
WINDS GUSTING THIS HIGH. ALSO..WITH 10-METRE WAVES EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST..EROSION OF SOME BEACHES IS LIKELY. RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS..ESPECIALLY WHERE LEAF LITTER
CLOGS STORM DRAINS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALES HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MARITIME WATERS AND MOST GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WATERS. STORM AND GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR REMAINING WATERS OF THE MARITIMES AND
NEWFOUNDLAND AND FOR SOUTHERN LABRADOR.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD CIRCULATION IS WRAPPING UP
TIGHTLY AND THERE IS AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY. AIRCRAFT DATA AND MODEL INITIAL FIELDS
INDICATE THAT THERE REMAINS A STRONG WARM CORE PRESENCE WITH THE
STORM.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY LARGE AND IMPRESSIVE CLOUD MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL. THE WIND FIELD AND HEAVY SEAS HAVE EXPANDED
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. BUOY B41048 LOCATED
ABOUT 500 KM WEST SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA REPORTED 60 KTS AND 11.3M
SIG WAVES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WE BELIEVE THOSE CONDITIONS WERE NOT
NEAR THE MAXIMA IN EITHER FIELD. QUIKSCAT PASS LAST EVENING SHOWED
STORM FORCE WINDS 400 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRE. ALTHOUGH THESE DATA
WERE RAIN FLAGGED AND SEEM EXTREME WE ARE RELUCTANT TO REJECT THEM
OUT OF HAND BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTATIONS WITH THIS STORM.

WE HAVE BEEN IN DIRECT COMMUNICATION WITH A RESEARCH AIRCRAFT FLYING
INTO THE STORM. SCIENTISTS ON BOARD THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM
SLP OF 976 MB AND MAX LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR 75 KNOTS LAST NIGHT.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY. OUR PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON PREDICTING THE
WIND FIELD..PARTICULARLY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND JET EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE STORM CENTRE MOVES THROUGH LAND AREAS.
OUR CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF THE ISALLOBARICALLY-ENHANCED WIND JET
IS THAT IT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND PEI DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80
KM/H GUSTING TO 140 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE.

00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WITH A WARM SECLUSION STRUCTURE..SO THIS
MAY INDICATE A CONTINUING STRONG WIND FIELD CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
THE WARM CORE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS IT APPROACHES THE MARITIMES..
WITH A CORRESPONDING MIGRATION OF THE MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL WINDS AWAY
FROM THE CENTRE.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING ADDITIONAL.

D. MARINE WEATHER
TRADITIONAL WIND RADII TABLE IS LEFT OUT GIVEN THAT THE WIND
DISTRIBUTION AROUND THE STORM IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN A PURELY
TROPICAL SYSTEM. STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UPWARDS OF 400 NM OUT FROM
THE CENTRE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALMOST
120 NM FROM THE CENTRE TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

THE TRAPPED-FETCH WAVE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE CANADIAN WAM MAY BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE HEIGHT OF THE WAVES. EVEN WITH THE CAVEAT THAT
THIS SPECIALIZED WAVE MODEL IS INTENDED TO BE USED WITH A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WHICH HAS A MORE LIMITED DOMAIN WE BELIEVE THAT RESONANCE
HAS OCCURRED WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT PASSED THE BAHAMAS. THE WW3
MAY ALSO BE UNDERPLAYING THESE WAVES.

GIVEN THE TROPICAL HISTORY OF THIS STORM..THE CANADIAN HURRICANE
CENTRE WILL CONTINUE MESSAGING THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

END FOGARTY/BOWYER
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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3828 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 7:35 am

Ship reported about 80 miles off the NJ coast reported 48kt sustained wind and 29.5 wave height.

SHIP S 1200 39.60 -72.70 125 303 10 48.0 - 29.5
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#3829 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:10 am

it should not have been declared ET when it was
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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3830 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:12 am

QS pass:

Image
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#3831 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:14 am

Image

Image
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#3832 Postby btangy » Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:29 am

Looks like buoy 44004 will give us a good idea if the storm has deepened even further from the 975-976mb from last night's recon mission

Image
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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3833 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:32 am

Image
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#3834 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:51 am

My current estimate: 80 kt / 974mb

As for the classification, maybe the post-storm report will find something different?
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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3835 Postby btangy » Sat Nov 03, 2007 9:02 am

Very interesting discussion from Taunton this morning regarding some mesoscale features that may produce some localized pockets of Cat 2 winds. Reminds me a bit about the discussion right before the Dec 8, 2005 blizzard-cane we had in SE New England with the very low level tropopause fold and extreme frontogenesis. If a warm seclusion event starts unfolding, then we may get some slantwise convection as well. Maybe that's what's occuring to the NE of the center right now with the burst of convection.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2007

**THE POWERFUL AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
NOEL WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO THIS EVENING**

THE POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE NOEL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AT
13Z...CENTER OF STORM IS APPROXIMATELY 150-170 MILES SOUTH OF BUOY
44004. GFS NOT CAPTURING THE INTENSITY OF THIS STORM AND IS NOT DEEP
ENOUGH. THE NAM IS INITIALIZING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE MUCH BETTER WITH
975 MB AT 12Z...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT KNOWN HOW DEEP THE STORM IS RIGHT
NOW DUE TO LACK OF BUOY DATA.

THE NASTIEST AND MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WILL OCCUR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL FOLLOW THE NAM TRACK/TIMING BUT STORM WILL LIKELY END UP
SEVERAL MB DEEPER THAN NAM FORECAST. NAM SHOWING VERY IMPRESSIVE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD DOWN TO 900 MB AT 00Z SO THIS STORM WILL LIKELY END
UP CLOSER TO 960 MB THIS EVENING. NAM SHOWING 85 KTS DOWN TO 925
MB...MUCH OF WHICH COULD MIX DOWN OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS AROUND 00Z
IF THIS TROP FOLD IS REALIZED. THIS WOULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 90
MPH.


NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO EARLY MORNING FORECAST WHICH HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS EVENT. THE ONE ASPECT OF THIS STORM WE ARE BECOMING
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG CAPE COD NORTH FACING BEACHES AND NANTUCKET. SEE
TIDES SECTION BELOW.

RAINFALL WILL BECOME VERY HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING TREMENDOUS
FRONTOGENESIS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY SIGNAL ABOVE WHICH WILL
SUPPORT VERY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL.
THINK NAM FORECAST TO 4-5+"
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH 2-3" BACK TO BOS-PVD
CORRIDOR.

THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND RHODE ISLAND. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST AND MOST DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE
ARE EXPECTED
. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS A
RESULT...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. ELSEWHERE IN THE HIGH
WIND WARNING...WIND GUSTS OF 60-65 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
CAUSE NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.

THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT TIER OF ZONES TO
THE WEST OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING...AND THIS INCLUDES NORTHEAST CT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WORCESTER HILLS...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING NOREASTER. THIS STORM SHOULD BE TAKEN
AS SERIOUSLY AS A HURRICANE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3836 Postby Sanibel » Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:02 am

The Gulf Stream definitely enhanced this one. You can see the high winds in the east part of the storm on visible. Nova Scotia is about to take a good hurricane.

It is the end of the season, but the 2007 shear pattern has changed in this part of the basin.
Last edited by Sanibel on Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:03 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3837 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:02 am

Surface analysis here. Highest obs I've seen around the storm are 35 kts this morning, but obs are spotty. I suspect winds are down to 50-60 kts now. As the wind field expands, velocity will drop off. We should get some good obs around the storm later today as it passes Cape Cod.

Image
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Re: Extratropical NOEL Advisories

#3838 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:08 am

WOCN31 CWHX 031500
INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT ON POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT
12.00 NOON ADT SATURDAY 03 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

THIS IS A BRIEF UPDATE ON THE STATUS OF POST-TROPICAL NOEL.

AT 12.00 NOON ADT WE ESTIMATE THE STORM CENTRE TO BE NEAR 37.2N
70.5W WHICH IS ABOUT 440 NAUTICAL MILES.. OR 820 KM SOUTHWEST OF
YARMOUTH. THE STORM CENTRE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH AT
35-40 KM/H BUT WE STILL EXPECTED IT TO TURN MORE NORTH NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED AT 973 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.. OR 139 KM/H. IT IS STRESSED THAT BOTH
PRESSURE AND WIND VALUES ARE ESTIMATES WHICH ARE GUIDED BY AVAILABLE
SURFACE DATA SATELLITE DATA AND FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE.

GALES OF 40 KNOTS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME
WATERS AND THE GULF OF MAINE... ABOUT 500 NAUTICAL MILES.. MORE THAN
900 KM NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM CENTRE.

THE STRONGEST COASTAL WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 42 KNOTS.. OR 78 KM/H AT
BACCARO POINT. THE RAIN MOVED INTO YARMOUTH AT 11:30 AM ADT.

END BOWYER

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Re:

#3839 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 11:04 am

Chacor wrote:Image

Not unheard of to have convection near the centre in clearly extratropical systems.


Almost there!!!

Image
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#3840 Postby btangy » Sat Nov 03, 2007 11:23 am

Buoy just to the N of the center is reporting a pressure of 977.6mb as of 11:50am. Winds E at 9m/s gusting to 12m/s, so it has yet to bottom out. Pressure has been decreasing at about 4mb per hour, so I would say the minimum pressure is in the low 970s right now.
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