Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

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#3841 Postby btangy » Sat Nov 03, 2007 11:23 am

Buoy just to the N of the center is reporting a pressure of 977.6mb as of 11:50am. Winds E at 9m/s gusting to 12m/s, so it has yet to bottom out. Pressure has been decreasing at about 4mb per hour, so I would say the minimum pressure is in the low 970s right now.
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Re:

#3842 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2007 11:29 am

btangy wrote:Buoy just to the N of the center is reporting a pressure of 977.6mb as of 11:50am. Winds E at 9m/s gusting to 12m/s, so it has yet to bottom out. Pressure has been decreasing at about 4mb per hour, so I would say the minimum pressure is in the low 970s right now.


From the latest advisorie from the Canada Hurricane centre:

CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED AT 973 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.. OR 139 KM/H. IT IS STRESSED THAT BOTH
PRESSURE AND WIND VALUES ARE ESTIMATES WHICH ARE GUIDED BY AVAILABLE
SURFACE DATA SATELLITE DATA AND FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE.


They estimated the pressure at 973 mbs at the noon ADT update.
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#3843 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 11:31 am

By the Radar Loop Boston to Cape Cod is getting nailed right now. Look very nasty.
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#3844 Postby btangy » Sat Nov 03, 2007 11:39 am

Precipitation is banded, which is very much characteristic of a nor'easter. Getting waves of wind driven rain passing through my area right now, but all in all, it isn't that bad yet. If it were 10-15 degrees colder, it would be much much more interesting.
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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3845 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 12:25 pm

Here's a 17Z analysis. Buoy just about to pass through the center has a pressure of 974.7mb and a 10kt wind now. Coastal obs are still in the 30-35 kt range.

Image
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Re: Extratropical NOEL Advisories from Canada

#3846 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:08 pm

POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
SATURDAY 03 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 6.00 PM ADT

...VERY LARGE AND DANGEROUS POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST
TO CROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.0 N AND LONGITUDE 69.7 W... ABOUT 135 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 250 KM SOUTH OF CAPE COD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 972
MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH AT 26 KNOTS... 48 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
NOV 03 3.00 PM 39.0N 69.7W 970 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 9.00 PM 41.5N 69.0W 968 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 2.00 AM 44.3N 67.2W 965 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 8.00 AM 47.3N 64.9W 962 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 2.00 PM 50.6N 62.5W 965 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 8.00 PM 53.7N 59.9W 966 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 2.00 AM 56.8N 58.4W 972 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 8.00 AM 59.1N 57.7W 974 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 2.00 PM 61.7N 57.3W 975 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

THE CURRENT TRACK HAS BEEN MOVED SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND THE STORM CENTRE IS NOW EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN
NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT ON ITS WAY TO PASSING BY GOOSE BAY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE LABRADOR SEA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOEL IS A POST-TROPICAL STORM WE EXPECT IT TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED NOT TO
FOCUS ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM CENTRE SINCE THE HIGH WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS WILL EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE TRACK LINE ITSELF.

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
BY 2PM ADT BACCARO POINT HAD ALREADY RECEIVED 16MM OF RAIN AND HAD
SEEN THE MAXIMUM COASTAL WIND SO FAR WITH 80 KM/H.

THE NUMBER OF WARNINGS ON THIS SYSTEM ARE TOO NUMEROUS TO LIST BUT
ARE SUMMARIZED HERE WITH DETAILS BEING AVAILABLE IN BULLETINS ISSUED
BY THE QUÉBEC AND ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRES AND THE
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE...
...WIND AND/OR RAIN WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR QUÉBEC NEW BRUNSWICK
PEI NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.
...A HEAVY SNOWFALL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHURCHILL FALLS
LABRADOR.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WRECKHOUSE NEWFOUNDLAND
AREA AND IN LES SUETES IN THE CAPE BRETON HIGHLANDS... 100 KM/H
GUSTING TO 180/160 RESPECTIVELY.

HEAVIEST RAINFALL FORECAST IS 100 MM IN PORTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK.

DANGEROUS POUNDING SURF CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA
SCOTIA..THE BAY OF FUNDY AND SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTS IN THE GULF
OF ST LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. STORM SURGE IS
UNLIKELY TO BE A MAJOR PROBLEM BECAUSE WE ARE APPROACHING NEAP TIDE.
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY TOTAL WATER LEVEL TO BE MUCH ABOVE HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.

HEAVY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR CHURCHILL FALLS AND VICINITY AS
POST-TROPICAL NOEL DRAWS COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN REGIONS AS IT PASSES.

DAMAGE/IMPACTS... SIMILAR STATEMENTS ISSUED EARLIER...
WHERE WIND GUSTS TO AND ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE (120 KM/H) ARE FORECAST
..EXPECT TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES TO BREAK WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
DOWNED POWER LINES AND POWER INTERRUPTIONS. SOME TREES WILL LIKELY
BE UPROOTED. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO ROOFING AND CLADDING
MATERIAL ON SOME HOMES. SOME SIGNAGE COULD ALSO SUFFER DAMAGE WITH
WINDS GUSTING THIS HIGH. ALSO..WITH 10-METRE WAVES EXPECTED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA... AND UPWARDS OF 8-METRES IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE ON SUNDAY. COAST..EROSION OF SOME
BEACHES IS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE.
RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS..ESPECIALLY
WHERE LEAF LITTER CLOGS STORM DRAINS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALES HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MARITIME WATERS AND MOST GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WATERS. STORM AND GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR REMAINING WATERS OF THE MARITIMES AND
NEWFOUNDLAND AND FOR SOUTHERN LABRADOR AND FOR SOME ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER WATERS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
BUOY B44004 APPEARS TO BE RIGHT IN THE PATH OF THE STORM CENTRE
WITH A 17Z MSLP OF 974.7MB.. DIMINISHING WINDS NOW AT EAST 13 KTS..
AND SIG WAVE PREVIOUS HOUR OF 9.7M. HENCE WE ARE CONTENT WITH A
970 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE LOWER.

GOES IMAGERY GIVES A REASONABLE FIX ON POSITION AND CLEARLY SHOWS
DRY AIR NOW WRAPPING AROUND TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CENTRE.

B. PROGNOSTIC
INITIAL MOTION IS BASED ON CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION AND MELDING WITH A
BLEND OF GEM AND GFS TRACKS. GEM INITIALIZED ABOUT 12 MB TOO HIGH.
ACCORDINGLY FUTURE PRESSURES WILL BE TOO HIGH BUT WE IMAGINE IT WILL
CATCH UP SOMEWHAT. OTHER THINKING FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE REMAINS
INTACT.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
ASPC WILL BE EXTENDING WIND WARNINGS FARTHER INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
QSPC IS CONSIDERING EXTENDING WIND WARNINGS FARTHER EAST ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE OF THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE.
NLWO IS CONDERING EXTENDING WIND WARNINGS INTO ALL REGIONS IN
WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

D. MARINE WEATHER
TRADITIONAL WIND RADII TABLE IS LEFT OUT GIVEN THAT THE WIND
DISTRIBUTION AROUND THE STORM IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN A PURELY
TROPICAL SYSTEM.

THE TRAPPED-FETCH WAVE MODEL CONTINUES SUGGESTING THAT WAM AND WW3
MAY BE UNDERDOING THE WAVES WITH THIS STORM... WITH BOTH OF THOSE
MODELS SHOWING 11-12M. WITH 10M APPEARING AT B44004 THE MAX WAVES
SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THIS SO 13-15M IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

GIVEN THE TROPICAL HISTORY OF THIS STORM..THE CANADIAN HURRICANE
CENTRE WILL CONTINUE MESSAGING THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

END BOWYER

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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3847 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:12 pm

From the Canada Hurricane Centre latest advisory.

AT 3.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.0 N AND LONGITUDE 69.7 W... ABOUT 135 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 250 KM SOUTH OF CAPE COD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 972
MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH AT 26 KNOTS... 48 KM/H.
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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3848 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 pm

I put the center closer to 38.6N/70.3W, not 39N/69.7W. That's based on a high-res 18Z satellite and a NW wind report and pressure 972.9mb at the buoy very near the center. Note the 55kt wind 130nm west of the center. Max winds are a guess, but if I had to guess I'd say more like 65kts in a few pockets rather than 75 kts. Certainly, the average winds are much lower than 75 kts. Also note that with a storm like this, strongest winds are not anywhere near the center. Those 50-55kt reports 130nm west of the center and the 40kt reports very near Cape Cod may be in the max wind band 100-150 miles away from the center.

Image
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#3849 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 2:31 pm

Rain, rain, and more rain:

Image

Winds:
Image
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Re:

#3850 Postby Brent » Sat Nov 03, 2007 2:32 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Rain, rain, and more rain:

Image


Looks like a very sharp cutoff between a ton of rain and nothing.
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#3851 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 3:28 pm

Image
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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3852 Postby btangy » Sat Nov 03, 2007 3:36 pm

From the afternoon AFD from Taunton, MA

NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING TRACK VERY WELL BASED ON ITS EXCELLENT
PRESSURE FALL DEPICTION. NAM INDICATING 3 HOURLY PRES FALLS OF 12
MB OVER THE BENCHMARK WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH MSAS PRES FALLS.
SO FOLLOWING THE NAM WOULD BRING STORM NEAR OR JUST EAST OF
BENCHMARK AT 00Z AS A SUB 970 MB STORM.

WINDS...
WE ARE GETTING MANY REPORTS OF GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH ACROSS SE NEW
ENG. THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS
21-00Z THEN DEPART AFT 02Z. MAX WINDS 80-85 KTS DOWN TO 925 MB AND
75-80 KTS DOWN TO 950 MB. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR MAX GUSTS OF 65-75 KTS FOR OUTER CAPE/ACK WHICH IS 75-85 MPH.
TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 21-02Z. GIVEN STORM WILL BE
DEEPER THAN NAM FORECAST AND IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALLS MOVING
ONSHORE...THESE WINDS APPEAR TO BE MORE THAN REASONABLE.

FURTHER WEST TO BOS-PVD CORRIDOR...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT GUSTS TO
50 MPH WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PULSE TO 60 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF BOS-PVD CORRIDOR BY 00Z.
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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3853 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 3:36 pm

Nantucket now reporting (4:23pm) sustained winds at 56mph gusting to 70mph. I heard on TWC there was peak wind gust at 72mph:

4:33pm Wind gust 73mph:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KACK.html
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#3854 Postby btangy » Sat Nov 03, 2007 3:56 pm

That burst of convection looks like it will clip Cape Cod and the Islands. Probably the strongest winds and heaviest rain will be found in there. 18Z NAM seems to be capturing it pretty well.
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#3855 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:02 pm

Image

Image
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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3856 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:Here's a 17Z analysis. Buoy just about to pass through the center has a pressure of 974.7mb and a 10kt wind now. Coastal obs are still in the 30-35 kt range.

Image


Extratropical huh? That looks like an eye...
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Re: Extratropical NOEL Advisories from Canada

#3857 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:54 pm

WOCN31 CWHX 032100
POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 6.00 PM ADT SATURDAY 03 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM AST

AT 6.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 N AND LONGITUDE 69.4 W... ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 190 KM SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS... 41
KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139
KM/H AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 968 MB.

BASED ON THE MEASURED SEAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM CENTRE WE
NOW BELIEVE THAT THE SEAS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM ARE
WELL ABOVE 12 METRES. WE ARE WARNING THAT THESE ENERGETIC WAVES
WILL CREATE DANGEROUS POUNDING SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND AND WE ADVISE
PEOPLE TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION NEAR THESE SHORES. MEDIA
REPORTS HAVE ALERTED US TO A HIGH LEVEL OF INTEREST IN THESE WAVES
BY THE PUBLIC AND WE ADVISE AGAINST ANYONE TESTING THESE WATERS OR
EVEN GOING NEAR THE SHORE.

LIGHTNING IS BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM. SQUALLY WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
MARITIME WATERS.

PEAK STORM VALUES SO FAR...
RAIN... 42 MM AT BACCARO POINT NS TO 5PM ADT
WIND... 91 KM/H AT BACCARDO POINT NS AT 2PM ADT

PUBLIC AND MARINE INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THEIR REGION BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

END BOWYER
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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3858 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:56 pm

From the latest advisory from the Canada Hurricane Centre:

AT 6.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 N AND LONGITUDE 69.4 W... ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 190 KM SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS... 41
KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139
KM/H AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 968 MB.
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Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3859 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:01 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Here's a 17Z analysis. Buoy just about to pass through the center has a pressure of 974.7mb and a 10kt wind now. Coastal obs are still in the 30-35 kt range.

Image


Extratropical huh? That looks like an eye...


Doesn't strong, occluded Nor'easters usually develop an eye?!?!?!?
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#3860 Postby BigA » Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:01 pm

A ship at 42N 70W reported sustained winds of 62 kts.
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