Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Chris_in_Tampa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4497
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
Contact:

Re: Extratropical NOEL Advisories from Canada

#3881 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Nov 04, 2007 3:46 am

WOCN31 CWHX 040600
Post-tropical storm Noel information statement issued by the
Canadian hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 AM AST
Sunday 04 November 2007.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 AM AST

...Highest winds from post-tropical storm Noel set to lash
The Maritimes this morning...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 2.00 AM ADT... Post-tropical storm Noel was located near
Latitude 43.6 N and longitude 66.2 W... About 15 nautical miles
Or 30 km southwest of Yarmouth . Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 75 knots... 139 km/h... And central pressure at 967
MB. Noel is moving north northeast at 34 knots... 63 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
AST MB kts kmh
Nov 04 2.00 AM 43.6N 66.2W 967 75 139 post-tropical
Nov 04 9.00 AM 46.9N 64.6W 965 70 130 post-tropical
Nov 04 3.00 PM 50.6N 62.4W 965 60 111 post-tropical
Nov 04 9.00 PM 53.9N 60.1W 966 60 111 post-tropical
Nov 05 3.00 AM 57.0N 58.5W 968 55 102 post-tropical
Nov 05 9.00 AM 59.2N 57.2W 969 55 102 post-tropical
Nov 05 3.00 PM 62.0N 56.3W 972 50 93 post-tropical
Nov 05 9.00 PM 64.7N 55.8W 977 50 93 post-tropical
Nov 06 3.00 AM 67.4N 55.3W 983 45 83 post-tropical

Although Noel is a post-tropical storm we expect it to be
Accompanied by hurricane force winds. The public is advised not to
focus on the actual track of the storm centre since the high winds
are extending very far from the track line itself.

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

The storm circulation is remarkably large..Affecting all of Atlantic
Canada and parts of New England.

Wind warnings remain in effect for Nova Scotia..Pei..Eastern and
Southern parts of New Brunswick..The Magdalen Islands..And parts of
Newfoundland and Québec. The heaviest rainfall is now limited to
Areas well west..North and east of the storm center. Heavy snow is
even occurring over parts of Labrador where snowfall warnings have
been posted.

The strongest winds are expected to be in the Newfoundland Wreckhouse
Area and in Les Suetes in the Cape Breton Highlands...100 km/h
gusting to 160. 140 km/h damaging wind gusts are forecast over parts
of Nova Scotia this morning. A peak wind of 117 km/h was reported at
mcnab's island at 06Z.

A peak significant wave height of 14 m was measured by buoy 44011 on
Georges Bank not far east of the storm center. We are warning that
these energetic waves will create dangerous pounding surf conditions
along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia this morning and into the
afternoon. We advise people to exercise extreme caution near these
shores. Media reports have alerted us to a High Level of interest in
these waves by the public and we advise against anyone testing these
waters or even going near the shore.

Storm surge is unlikely to be a major problem because tides are
running lower than normal. We do not expect total water levels to be
much above high astronomical tide.

Damage/impacts...
Where wind gusts to and above hurricane force (120-140 km/h) are
Forecast..Expect tree limbs and branches to break which will likely
lead to downed power lines and power interruptions. Some trees will
likely be uprooted. These winds will cause damage to roofing and
cladding material on some homes. Some signage could also suffer
Damage with winds gusting this high. Also..With 9-13-metre waves
Expected along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia... And upwards of
8 metres in the northeast gulf of st. Lawrence later today. Coastal
erosion of some beaches is likely with possible damage to wharves
And docks.

There have been reports of tree damage and power outages in the
Halifax area late tonight. There was also a report of a roof lifted
off a trailer home somewhere in the city.

The rainfall threat is almost over..But in some parts of
New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia where some additional rain
Is expected this morning..Localized flooding in prone areas is
Likely where leaf litter from the storm has clogged storm drains.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for southwestern
Maritime waters and most Gulf of St Lawrence waters. Storm and gale
warnings are in effect for remaining waters of the Maritimes and
Newfoundland and for southern Labrador as well as for some st.
Lawrence river waters.

5. Technical discussion

A. Analysis
The center of the storm is racing toward western Nova Scotia at
forecast issue time. It appears to be a bit farther east than
Earlier expected..But not enough to make a big difference in the
forecast.

B. Prognostic
The gem regional model..Principal guidance for this
Forecast..Initialized the storm about 10 MB too high. Accordingly..
We maintain our current intensity forecast and bump-up the gem
Wind speeds. The storm still likely has remanants of a warm core
With gusty winds mixing down from the top of the boundary layer.

Overall forecast remains unchanged except for slightly eastward-
adjusted track forecast based on sat pix and model tracks. The
Most damaging winds are set to move across Nova Scotia at issue
Time. An intermediate bulletin will be issued by 6 AM AST.

C. Public weather
See above.

D. Marine weather
See above.

Given the tropical history of this storm..The canadian hurricane
centre will continue to prepare storm bulletins today.

End fogarty
0 likes   

arlwx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 284
Joined: Fri Dec 05, 2003 5:38 am

Re: Extratropical NOEL Advisories from Canada

#3882 Postby arlwx » Sun Nov 04, 2007 6:01 am

WOCN31 CWHX 040900
POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED
BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6.00 AM
AST SUNDAY 04 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM AST

AT 6.00 AM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 45.2 N AND LONGITUDE 65.3 W... ABOUT 25 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 45 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 36 KNOTS... 67
KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS... 130
KM/H AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 968 MB. AS A SIDE NOTE..THERE IS A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK WHICH SHOULD
MERGE WITH THE NOEL STORM CENTER OVER EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.

VERY STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA SINCE THE
LAST REPORT AT 3 AM. THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER LAND WERE AT MCNABS
ISLAND IN HALIFAX HARBOUR..113 KM/H GUSTING TO 135 KM/H. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS WERE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING TO 145 KM/H IN THE
CAPE BRETON HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. OTHER NOTEWORTHY
WINDS INCLUDE 90 GUSTING TO 113 KM/H AT HALIFAX AIRPORT..90 GUSTING
122 KM/H AT CARIBOU POINT IN PICTOU COUNTY AND 107 GUSTING 133 KM/H
ON BEAVER ISLAND IN EASTERN HALIFAX COUNTY. GUSTS JUST OVER 100 KM/H
WERE REPORTED IN TRURO AND STEWIACKE..AREAS THAT DO NOT OFTEN SEE
GUSTS THAT HIGH.

IN THE OFFSHORE..PEAK SIG WAVES WERE RECORDED AS 14M AT BUOY 44011 ON
GEORGE'S BANK. AT BUOY 44150 ON LAHAVE BANK WINDS WERE BLOWING NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE FOR ALMOST 4 HOURS. AT THE HALIFAX HARBOUR BUOY THE
SIG WAVES HAVE BUILT TO 10M. THE WIND THERE HAVE BEEN BLOWING AT 58
KNOTS OR 107 KM/H.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE WELL PREDICTED WITH 70 TO 75 MM REPORTED AT
SEVERAL STATIONS IN WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND THROUGHOUT NEW BRUNSWICK.
A SLIGHTLY SUSPECT READING OF 94 MM WAS RECORDED AT INGONISH BEACH
IN THE CAPE BRETON HIGHLANDS. THERE WERE SOME REPORTS OF LOCALIZED
STREET FLOODING FROM THESE RAINS..EXACERBATED BY LEAF LITTER CLOGGING
STORM DRAINS.

THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES IN NOVA SCOTIA.
A NUMBER OF TREES HAVE BLOWN DOWN ON ROADWAYS PLUS MANY TREE BRANCHES
IN THE STREETS AROUND HALIFAX. THERE WAS A REPORT OF A TRANSFORMER
FIRE ON A POWER POLE..AND A MOBILE HOME LOST ITS ROOF SOMEWHERE IN
THE HALIFAX AREA. POWER LINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED DOWN ON THE
ROADWAYS ON CAPE SABLE ISLAND IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. THERE IS
A REPORT OF A ROAD WASHOUT OR EROSION NEAR COW BAY PAST EASTERN
PASSAGE.

WE WILL LIKELY HAVE MANY MORE REPORTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116685
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Extratropical NOEL Advisories from Canada

#3883 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 04, 2007 8:34 am

CWHX 041300
POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM AST
SUNDAY 04 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 12.00 NOON AST

..HIGH WINDS FROM POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL MOVING ACROSS THE
MARITIMES..CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE IN THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING..

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM AST... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 47.5 N AND LONGITUDE 64.3 W... ABOUT 55 NAUTICAL MILES OR
100 KM EAST NORTHEAST OF CHATHAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... (OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 968 MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH
NORTHEAST AT 35 KNOTS... 65 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
NOV 04 9.00 AM 47.5N 64.3W 968 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 2.00 PM 50.6N 62.4W 969 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 8.00 PM 53.9N 60.1W 970 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 2.00 AM 57.0N 58.5W 970 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 8.00 AM 59.2N 57.2W 971 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 2.00 PM 62.0N 56.3W 972 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 8.00 PM 64.7N 55.8W 977 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

ALTHOUGH WEAKENING POST-TROPICAL NOEL CONTINUES AS A POWERFUL STORM
MOVING THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA. THE STORM CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE EARLY THIS AFTEROON AND PASS
THROUGH LABRADOR THIS EVENING AND THE LABRADOR SEA WATERS MONDAY.

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

A SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AND WEATHER STATISTICS CAN BE FOUND IN OUR
LAST INTERMEDIATE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 6 AM AND IN SPECIAL WEATHER
SUMMARY BULLETINS FOR THE VARIOUS PROVINCES.

WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND SOME INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN NOVA SCOTIA DUE TO WIND AND LARGE COASTAL WAVES. SOME
LOCALIZED RAINFALL-RELATED FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM NEW
BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA.

PEAK WINDS AT WRECKHOUSE NEWFOUNDLAND REACHED 180 KM/H THIS
MORNING WHILE MCNABS ISLAND AND BEAVER ISLAND NOVA SCOTIA BOTH
GUSTED TO 135 KM/H. WE ALSO HAD AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF 130 MM OF
RAIN AT SMELT BROOK NOVA SCOTIA ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CAPE
BRETON.

WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA.. PEI.. MAGDALEN
ISLANDS.. PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND.. SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK.. PORTIONS OF THE GASPÉ PENINSULA.. ANTICOSTI ISLAND..
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE OF THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE.

RAINFALL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW
BRUNSWICK PORTIONS OF THE GASPÉ PENINSULA ANTICOSTI ISLAND AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE OF THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE.

SNOWFALL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE GASPÉ
PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN QUÉBEC.. AND PORTIONS OF LABRADOR.

HEAVY POUNDING SURF REMAINS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTLINES AROUND NEWFOUNDLAND..CAPE BRETON..AND
AREAS AROUND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE TOO CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA SINCE WAVES WILL REMAIN VERY
DANGEROUS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. WIND GUSTS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO CAUSE FURTHER TREE DAMAGE THIS MORNING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA..PEI
AND EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

THE HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS WILL BE DOWNGRADED AS THE STORM
MOVES NORTH. STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST MARINE WATERS
AROUND ATLANTIC CANADA. VERY HIGH SEAS WILL PERSIST WITH SIG WAVES
NEAR 8 M OVER SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA WATERS AND WAVES BUILDING TO
NEAR 8 M IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ST LAWRENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A HOOK OF CLOUD AND RAIN RAPIDLY MOVING
NORTHEAST. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN LOCATES THE STORM CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE IN THE OUTER CHALEUR-MISCOU MARINE AREA.

B. PROGNOSTIC
WE CONTINUE WITH BASIC TRACK FROM 3 AM PACKAGE. RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE OF 19.3 DEGREES AT YARMOUTH AT 11 PM LAST EVENING
WAS AN INDICATION OF THE WARM AIR STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
ANY WARM CORE REMAINING SHOULD START DISSIPATING TODAY AS PER THE
GEM.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING ADDITIONAL.

D. MARINE WEATHER
GIVEN THE TROPICAL HISTORY OF THIS STORM..THE CANADIAN HURRICANE
CENTRE WILL CONTINUE TO PREPARE STORM BULLETINS TODAY.

END FOGARTY/BOWYER

0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9968
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3884 Postby Sanibel » Sun Nov 04, 2007 9:56 am

TWC just told of an over 80mph wind on Cape Cod. And that was on the weak west side.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27561
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#3885 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 04, 2007 10:43 am

The Canadian Hurricane Centre still thinks it might have been warm-core last night:

B. PROGNOSTIC
WE CONTINUE WITH BASIC TRACK FROM 3 AM PACKAGE. RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE OF 19.3 DEGREES AT YARMOUTH AT 11 PM LAST EVENING
WAS AN INDICATION OF THE WARM AIR STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
ANY WARM CORE REMAINING SHOULD START DISSIPATING TODAY AS PER THE
GEM.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116685
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Extratropical NOEL Advisories from Canada

#3886 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 04, 2007 11:18 am

WOCN31 CWHX 041600
POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 12.00 NOON AST SUNDAY 04 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM AST

AT 11.00 AM AST... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 49.7 N AND LONGITUDE 62.8 W... ABOUT 45 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 83 KM SOUTHWEST OF NATASHQUAN QUÉBEC.

NOEL IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS...
83 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111
KM/H AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 968 MB.

HIGHEST WINDS REPORT INCLUDE 180 KM/H AT WRECKHOUSE NEWFOUNDLAND..
AND 135 KM/H AT MCNABS ISLAND AND BEAVER ISLAND NOVA SCOTIA.

HEAVIEST RAINFALLS REPORTED INCLUDE 130 MM AT SMELT BROOK IN CAPE
BRETON NOVA SCOTIA AND 111 MM IN CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK.

IN GENERAL NEW BRUNSWICK WAS THE HARDEST HIT WITH RAIN WITH ALL
STATIONS ACROSS THE PROVINCE REPORTING AT LEAST 50-80 MM.
NOVA SCOTIA WAS THE HARDEST HIT WITH WIND AND MOST STATIONS
REPORTED OVER 100 KM/H GUSTS AND SEVERAL STATIONS REPORTED HURRICANE
FORCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 120 KM/H.

REPORTS OF DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES AROUND NOVA SCOTIA ARE
CONTINUING TO BE RECEIVED.

END BOWYER

0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3887 Postby cpdaman » Sun Nov 04, 2007 11:39 am

just when florida (yes florida) beach owners thought the worst erosion from the storm was done, a "surprise" SWELL from the back side of noel hit late saturday nite, and flooded AIA in fort lauderdale, as well as coastal erosion and flooding in lantana in the palm beaches although the coastal flooding on AIA in fort lauderdale was the bullseye

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... ?track=rss

surf's up ....still

the backside of noel produced a nice fetch just off north carolina's , virginia's late friday evening, nite that took about 30 hours or so to reach the beaches in palm beach and broward county's. One more storm and these areas are going to look AT MILLIONS if not more in damage. (there is no beach left in many areas)
0 likes   

User avatar
Category 5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10075
Age: 29
Joined: Sun Feb 11, 2007 10:00 pm
Location: New Brunswick, NJ
Contact:

Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3888 Postby Category 5 » Sun Nov 04, 2007 11:41 am

Are there any satelittes still on Noel? all of the ones I have aren't in range anymore.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116685
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3889 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 04, 2007 11:47 am

Category 5 wrote:Are there any satelittes still on Noel? all of the ones I have aren't in range anymore.


Still NRL is with it although is moving out of the image quickly.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 29
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

Re: Hurricane NOEL : (Extratropical) Discussions & Images

#3890 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Nov 04, 2007 1:04 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Category 5 wrote:Are there any satelittes still on Noel? all of the ones I have aren't in range anymore.


Still NRL is with it although is moving out of the image quickly.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


I just edited my avatar with satellite from Environment Canada.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2565
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

#3891 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun Nov 04, 2007 1:36 pm

Here is a good color enhancec IR link:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/sat ... 70_100.jpg
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116685
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Extratropical NOEL Advisories from Canada

#3892 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 04, 2007 2:17 pm

CWHX 041900
POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM AST
SUNDAY 04 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 6.00 PM AST

... POST-TROPICAL NOEL MOVING INTO LABRADOR...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 2.00 PM AST... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 51.2 N AND LONGITUDE 62.2 W... ABOUT 62 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 116 KM NORTH OF NATASHQUAN QUÉBEC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 966 MB.
NOEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 41 KNOTS... 76 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
AST MB KTS KMH
NOV 04 2.00 PM 51.2N 62.2W 966 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 8.00 PM 55.0N 58.9W 966 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 2.00 AM 57.6N 56.8W 968 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 8.00 AM 59.9N 54.9W 969 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 2.00 PM 62.4N 53.1W 978 45 83 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
ALL RAINFALL WARNING SHAVE ENDED. WIND WARNINGS ARE BEING
SYSTEMATICALLY ENDED AS POST-TROPICAL NOEL MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. SNOWFALL WARNINGS IN QUÉBEC HAVE ENDED BUT
HEAVY SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW WARNINGS REMAIN IN LABRADOR.

SUMMARY STORM DATA FOR THE MARITIMES AND NEWFOUNDLAND WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THE 6 PM UPDATE ALONG WITH PRELIMINARY STORM DATA FOR
QUÉBEC AND LABRADOR.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
STORM AND GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN MARITIME AND NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS
IN THE WAKE OF POST-TROPICAL NOEL BUT THESE SHOULD END TONIGHT.
GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN LABRADOR WATERS UNTIL THE THE STORM
SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... POSSIBLY WITH TWO CENTRES...
IS EVIDENT IN THE PRESSURE FIELD. IT IS CLEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM IS
NOW FULLY EXTRATROPICAL.

GUSTS IN THE 60S IN THE GULF WATERS AND GUSTS IN THE 40S IN WATERS
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONVINCE US TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST 60 KTS
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM AT 18Z.

B. PROGNOSTIC
WE MOSTLY FOLLOW THE GEM PACKAGE. PRESSURE CONTINUES BEING LOWER
THAN INITIALIZED BY THE MODEL.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING ADDITIONAL.

D. MARINE WEATHER
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS IN SOME MARITIME WATERS STILL LINGER BUT THESE
SHOULD BE GONE SHORTLY.

END BOWYER

0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116685
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: NOEL Advisories from Canada=Last Advisory/Summary

#3893 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 04, 2007 5:02 pm

WOCN31 CWHX 042200
POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL FINAL INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 6.00 PM AST SUNDAY 04 NOVEMBER 2007.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST BULLETIN ISSUED ON POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL.

POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS NOW COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL AND AS A
RESULT CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE BULLETINS ARE NO LONGER NECESSARY.
FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM CAN BE
FOUND IN REGULAR BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE QUÉBEC AND ATLANTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRES AND THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE.

SYNOPTIC SUMMARY OF THE STORM...
LATE ON SATURDAY OCTOBER 27 A PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE CENTRE ABOUT
200 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HAITI BECAME TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE STILL WELL SOUTH OF HAITI THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BECAME TROPICAL STORM NOEL.. THE 14TH NAMED STORM OF THE
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS NOEL TRACKED
ERATICALLY THROUGH HAITI CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS... NEVER REACHING MUCH MORE THAN 90 KM/H IN
SUSTAINED WINDS. HOWEVER TORRENTIAL RAINS OF MORE THAN 500 MM IN
SOME CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES CLAIMED MORE THAN 100 LIVES IN FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES. ONCE NOEL CLEARED THE BAHAMAS IT INTENSIFIED QUICKLY TO A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATE THURSDAY NOVEMBER 1. SUBSEQUENTLY
HURRICANE NOEL CONTINUED MOVING NORTHEAST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF NEAR
140 KM/H. ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AFTER BECOMING A HURRICANE NOEL BEGAN
TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM. DURING THIS TRANSITION IT
BECAME A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL STORM. THE STORM
CENTRE REACHED THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY NOVEMBER 4 STILL CARRYING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 140 KM/H. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE STORM WAS OVER LABRADOR
AND FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN NATURE.

WEATHER IN EASTERN CANADA...
GALES MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS NEAR DAWN SATURDAY
NOVEMBER 3 WHILE THE STORM CENTRE WAS STILL 1100 KM SOUTHWEST OF
NOVA SCOTIA. STRONG WINDS AND RAIN MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN MARITIMES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSHED STEADILY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW DEVELOPED WITH THE SYSTEM IN
NORTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK SOUTHEASTERN QUÉBEC AND LABRADOR.

IMPACTS...
THE WORST HIT PROVINCE WAS NOVA SCOTIA WITH WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES.. LOCALIZED FLOODING.. UPROOTED TREES.. ROAD WASHOUTS.. AND
SOME INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.


SUMMARY WIND AND RAIN DATA FROM NEW BRUNSWICK ...
TOTAL RAINFALL MAX. WIND GUST
AMOUNTS (MM) (KM/H)
SAINT JOHN 71.2 82
POINT LEPREAU 81.2 82
GRAND MANAN 59.0 82
ST STEPHEN 72.4 63
FREDERICTON 56.7 83
GAGETOWN 66.0 72
MECHANIC SETTLEMENT 67.0 85
FUNDY PARK 59.8 N/A
MONCTON 72.2 96
BOUCTOUCHE 55.0 72
KOUCHIBOUGUAC 86.1 N/A
MIRAMICHI 68.0 67
BAS CARAQUET 95.6 72
MISCOU ISLAND 59.6 87
BATHURST 89.8 69
CHARLO 62.0 56
EDMUNSTON 52.7 N/A
ST LÉONARD N/A 57
MEADOWBROOK 112.3


SUMMARY WIND AND RAIN DATA FROM PEI ...
TOTAL RAINFALL MAX. WIND GUST
AMOUNTS (MM) (KM/H)
CHARLOTTETOWN 28.2 96
SUMMERSIDE 45.2 93
NORTH POINT 54.7 111
ST PETER'S 35.4 102
EAST POINT 21.7 111
HARRINGTON HARBOUR 27.9 106
MAPLE PLAINS N/A 87


SUMMARY WIND AND RAIN DATA FROM THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS ...
TOTAL RAINFALL MAX. WIND GUST
AMOUNTS (MM) (KM/H)
GRINDSTONE ISLAND 26.6 115


SUMMARY WIND AND RAIN DATA FROM NOVA SCOTIA ...
TOTAL RAINFALL MAX. WIND GUST
AMOUNTS (MM) (KM/H)
YARMOUTH 50.4 85
BRIER ISLAND 37.0 107
BACCARO POINT 76.9 126
WESTERN HEAD 73.8 104
LUNENBURG N/A 104
SHEARWATER 36.7 N/A
MCNABS ISLAND N/A 135
HALIFAX INT'L'53.1 113
KENTVILLE 70.5 81
GREENWOOD (WINDY HILL) 51.7 (100)
KEJIMKUJIK 71.6 N/A
UPPER STEWIACKE 34.5 104
DEBERT 35.5 102
PARRSBORO 60.9 67
NAPPAN 53.2 91
CARIBOU POINT * 18.7 122
TRACADIE 57.8 106
MALAY FALLS 57.9 N/A
BEAVER ISLAND N/A 137
HART ISLAND N/A 124
SYDNEY 67.6 102
INGONISH BEACH 112.3 94
GRAND ETANG N/A 146
NORTH MOUNTAIN N/A 96
ST PAUL ISLAND N/A 128

ADDITIONALLY AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION FROM SMELT BROOK JUST
TO THE EAST OF DINGWALL IN CAPE BRETON REPORTED 130 MM OF RAIN.

* STATION CEASED REPORTING AT 6.00 A.M. AST SUNDAY MORNING.


SUMMARY WIND DATA FROM NEWFOUNDLAND ...
MAX. WIND GUST
(KM/H)
BURGEO 111
ST. LAWRENCE 94
WINTERLAND 104
PORT AUX BASQUES 113
SAGONA 135
ST. JOHN'S 80
BONAVISTA 111
GANDER 98
DEER LAKE 95
STEPHENVILLE 95
WRECKHOUSE 180
DANIEL'S HARBOUR 109
FEROLLE POINT 104


NOTABLE MARINE DATA FROM MARITIME AND NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ...
A PEAK WIND OF 66 KNOTS OR 122 KM/H WAS REPORTED AT THE WEST
SCOTIAN SLOPE BUOY. THE HIGHEST SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 13.9
METRES WAS REPORTED AT THE GEORGES BANK BUOY. THE HALIFAX WAVE RIDER
BUOY REPORTED A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 10.3 METRES.

SUMMARY STORM DATA FROM AFFECTED REGIONS IN SOUTHEASTERN
QUÉBEC AND LABRADOR WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL SOME TIME MONDAY.

END BOWYER

0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27561
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#3894 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 04, 2007 5:58 pm

Finally, we can say goodbye to Noel...fully absorbed by another system.

Will it be the :Door: or the :Can:? It is a tossup on whether or not he will be retired.
0 likes   

Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2740
Age: 27
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

#3895 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Nov 04, 2007 6:00 pm

Deadliest storm of the season...

I'd say no question.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27561
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re:

#3896 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 04, 2007 6:02 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:Deadliest storm of the season...

I'd say no question.


Ummm...a similar-strength Gordon killed more than eight times as many and wasn't retired...
0 likes   

Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2740
Age: 27
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

Re: Re:

#3897 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Nov 04, 2007 6:06 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Cyclone1 wrote:Deadliest storm of the season...

I'd say no question.


Ummm...a similar-strength Gordon killed more than eight times as many and wasn't retired...

A valid point.

But, Gordon was the exception. Not the rule.
0 likes   

User avatar
Category 5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10075
Age: 29
Joined: Sun Feb 11, 2007 10:00 pm
Location: New Brunswick, NJ
Contact:

Re: Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

#3898 Postby Category 5 » Sun Nov 04, 2007 6:25 pm

It certainly should be retired. I sure as heck hope that the WMO doesn't say what they said for Gordon.
0 likes   

Squarethecircle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2165
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
Location: Fairfax, VA

Re: Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

#3899 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Nov 04, 2007 6:27 pm

Bret wasn't retired either, but again, exception, not the rule. This thing probably has slightly more or slightly less chance of being retired than Felix, because damage reports are not out yet, but if I had to choose yes or no, I'd say yes as well.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27561
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#3900 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 04, 2007 6:30 pm

If Noel is retired, it would be the first storm starting with N to be retired in the Atlantic, which is the lowest letter to have nothing retired. (The other letters used with no retired names are P, T and V, plus of course the Greeks)
0 likes   


Return to “2007”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests