Tropical Depression east of Vietnam [former 0721 PEIPAH]

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Chacor
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Tropical Depression east of Vietnam [former 0721 PEIPAH]

#1 Postby Chacor » Fri Nov 02, 2007 10:07 pm

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 18.3N 129.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 030100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2N 129.9E TO 16.7N 124.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 030000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 129.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY IN-
DICATES FLARING CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED OUT OF A COLD CORE
UPPER LEVEL LOW (TUTT CELL), BUT HAS TO TAKEN ON SHALLOW WARM CORE
CHARACTERISTICS. AVAILABLE QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES WINDS OF 20
KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER
EASTERN CHINA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDER
AN AREA OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040100Z.//

NNNN
Last edited by Chacor on Fri Nov 09, 2007 3:29 am, edited 6 times in total.
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#2 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Nov 02, 2007 10:09 pm

Looks really good...this came out of nowhere, I'd expect more than just a TD from this.
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Re: Tropical Depression East of Philippines (96W TCFA)

#3 Postby RattleMan » Sat Nov 03, 2007 2:21 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 18.1N 128.6E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 17.2N 125.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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#4 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:38 am

REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 127.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
465 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A
030530Z PGTW DVORAK SATELITTE FIX AND RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TD 21W HAS FORMED UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE EXTENDING EAST-
WARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA AND INTO THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT WESTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSIT-
ING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. AS THIS CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE WEAKENS, THE WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD WESTWARD IN ITS WAKE. THEREFORE, THE STORM IS FORE-
CAST TO TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS THE SECOND SUBTROPI-
CAL RIDGE BUILDS. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN-
CLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
OVER LUZON BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPER-
SEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 030051Z NOV 07
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 030100).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
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Re: Tropical Depression (Twenty-one-W) east of Philippines

#5 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:06 am

It really is looking tidy on latest satellite image. I always keep a very close eye on tropical systems in this part of the Pacific from October onwards, remember Xangsane, Chebi, Cimaron, Durian and Utor last year! Looks like it will head towards the relatively remote area of norther Luzon.
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Re: Tropical Depression (Twenty-one-W) east of Philippines

#6 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:12 am

Image
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#7 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:18 am

03/0830 UTC 18.2N 128.2E T3.0/3.0 21W -- West Pacific Ocean
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Re: Tropical Depression (Twenty-one-W) east of Philippines

#8 Postby P.K. » Sat Nov 03, 2007 7:10 am

First sat fix from RJTD on this system is T2.5 in the last few minutes so it may well be upgraded in about 40 min.
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Re: Tropical Depression (Twenty-one-W) east of Philippines

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2007 7:18 am

Image
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#10 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:03 am

219
WTPQ20 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0721 PEIPAH (0721) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 18.2N 127.8E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 70NM
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 16.9N 124.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 051200UTC 17.2N 122.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 061200UTC 17.5N 119.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
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#11 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:50 am

Wow this looks to be rapidly intensifying...
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#12 Postby RL3AO » Sat Nov 03, 2007 9:50 am

Very impressive looking system. Looks like more problems for the N Philippines. Hopefully it doesn't get too strong.
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:00 am

Image

Image

Another common late-season Philippine storm.
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Re: Tropical Storm 0721 PEIPAH (21W/PAGASA: Kabayan) thread

#14 Postby P.K. » Sat Nov 03, 2007 2:19 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0721 PEIPAH (0721)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 17.9N 126.1E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 16.4N 123.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 051800UTC 16.8N 119.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 061800UTC 16.5N 118.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
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#15 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:29 pm

Looks like it is trying to develop an eye...
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:14 pm

Image
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#17 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:53 pm

45 kt according to both the JMA and JTWC.
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#18 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 6:51 pm

03/2030 UTC 17.3N 125.2E T3.5/3.5 PEIPAH -- West Pacific Ocean
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Re: Tropical Storm 0721 PEIPAH (21W/PAGASA: Kabayan) thread

#19 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 7:20 pm

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#20 Postby RattleMan » Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:30 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0721 PEIPAH (0721) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 17.2N 124.8E FAIR
MOVE WSW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 16.2N 121.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 060000UTC 17.0N 119.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 070000UTC 16.0N 117.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
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