INVEST 91L : Caribbean : Discussions & Images

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INVEST 91L : Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2007 7:41 am

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Its not over yet.Post away about this invest.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 7:42 am

OLGA-WANNA-BE!

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INVEST 91L: Models Thread

#3 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 7:47 am

196
WHXX01 KWBC 031246
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1246 UTC SAT NOV 3 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20071103 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071103 1200 071104 0000 071104 1200 071105 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 80.1W 13.3N 81.7W 12.1N 83.9W 10.7N 86.3W
BAMD 13.8N 80.1W 13.3N 82.0W 12.7N 84.6W 12.0N 87.8W
BAMM 13.8N 80.1W 13.3N 81.5W 12.4N 83.8W 11.5N 86.5W
LBAR 13.8N 80.1W 13.6N 81.5W 13.9N 83.5W 14.1N 85.8W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 23KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071105 1200 071106 1200 071107 1200 071108 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.3N 89.4W 8.7N 95.3W 8.5N 101.2W 6.9N 106.4W
BAMD 11.6N 91.4W 12.1N 99.1W 15.4N 105.8W 19.9N 108.0W
BAMM 10.8N 89.6W 10.5N 95.7W 11.4N 102.0W 12.2N 106.5W
LBAR 14.5N 88.0W 15.2N 92.3W 16.2N 95.0W 15.5N 96.5W
SHIP 34KTS 34KTS 27KTS 22KTS
DSHP 31KTS 31KTS 25KTS 19KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 80.1W DIRCUR = 210DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 79.3W DIRM12 = 229DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 79.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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#4 Postby fci » Sat Nov 03, 2007 7:48 am

Isn't this destined to move W/WSW into Central America?

If so, a very short-lived Invest 91.
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 7:49 am

Image

Talk about limited time!!!
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Re:

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2007 7:49 am

fci wrote:Isn't this destined to move W/WSW into Central America?

If so, a very short-lived Invest 91.


According to the BAM models,yes.It crosses to the EPAC.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 7:51 am

Image

Could be close to TD status if this image is not lying to me!!!
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Re: INVEST 91L : Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#8 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:09 am

i see the models project a NW(whoops edited) movement after crossing over mexico...any chance it could give the folks in SoCal any precipitation?
Last edited by CronkPSU on Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: INVEST 91L : Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:09 am

03/1145 UTC 13.8N 79.9W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
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Re: INVEST 91L : Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2007 9:13 am

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 03 NOVEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z NOVEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-159

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 04/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 12.5N 82.0W
E. 04/2030Z TO 04/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 05/1200Z
B. AFXXX 02KKA CYCLONE
C. 05/0700Z
D. 12.0N 83.1W
E. 05/1030Z TO 05/1400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

Recon for sunday afternoon if necessary.
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 9:34 am

Image

Continues to become better organized.
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#12 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 9:39 am

Another Invest, granted not one with much promise (at least Atlantic Wise), but stil it is getting rather late in the season. :double:
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#13 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Nov 03, 2007 9:44 am

conditions look fairly favorable for further development out of this system

May have 48-72 hours over the water before moving into Nicaragua and Honduras. That expected motion truly sums up the season... hitting areas that do not need to be hit at all
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 9:45 am

Image
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#15 Postby RL3AO » Sat Nov 03, 2007 9:47 am

I know this is old, but this has a very impressive circulation on QS.

Image
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Re: INVEST 91L : Caribbean : 11:30 AM TWO Shortly

#16 Postby Frank2 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:00 am

Oy - and just a week or two ago (a few days before Noel) I threw away my 2007 tracking chart...
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Re: INVEST 91L: Models Thread

#17 Postby Frank2 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:04 am

This is consistent with what one of the research folks at the HRD once told me - that the southwest Caribbean's hurricane season is almost year 'round, with even a small statistical "maximum" in the first week of February...

In 1979, I recall well that an unnamed subtropical storm crossed South Florida from that area during the third week of April (complete with 4-6 inches of rain and gale force winds), so...

It really makes sense, since the southern Carribean sees almost 12 hours of daylight year 'round (esepecially those areas south of 15N, since the amount of daylight varies little the closer to the equator), so, the water temps stay pretty warm throughout the year.

And, any strong arctic cold fronts that do sweep that far southeast do linger in that area, which increases the chance of a low forming in the area...
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Re: INVEST 91L : Caribbean : 11:30 AM TWO Shortly

#18 Postby Sanibel » Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:06 am

I saw this yesterday but thought it was too close to Noel to be anything. Today it looks like it could be a late SW Caribbean threat that is more south of us than Noel.
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Re: INVEST 91L : Caribbean : 11:30 AM TWO Shortly

#19 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:09 am

Appears to be closer to 14N/81W. That's 128nm east of Nicaragua. It'll most likely move a bit south of west and inland into Nicaragua by Monday. There's a chance it could develop before then, though.
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Re: INVEST 91L : Caribbean : 11:30 AM TWO Shortly

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:16 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031515
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN
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