INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

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cycloneye
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Re: INVEST 92L: Model Thread

#21 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 06, 2007 7:41 am

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Re: INVEST 92L : Northeastern Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#22 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 06, 2007 7:41 am

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#23 Postby Chacor » Tue Nov 06, 2007 7:48 am

ATCF FTP server appears to be down right now.
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Re: INVEST 92L: Models Thread

#24 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 06, 2007 7:53 am

The FSU site has been down since last sunday.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Re: INVEST 92L : Northeastern Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#25 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 06, 2007 7:54 am

06/1145 UTC 31.4N 37.3W ST2.5/2.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
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Re: INVEST 92L: Models Thread

#26 Postby Squarethecircle » Tue Nov 06, 2007 7:57 am

Then where else can we get simple model runs?
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Re: INVEST 92L : Northeastern Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#27 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:47 am

Here is the 12:00 UTC update at NRL:

20071106.1315.goes12.x.vis1km_high.92LINVEST.35kts-1000mb-311N-372W.100pc.jpg |
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Re: INVEST 92L : Northeastern Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#28 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:51 am

From the 7:05am EST TWD:

AN OCCLUDED 1000 MB SFC LOW IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE AREA NEAR
32N37W...OR ABOUT 585NM SW OF THE AZORES. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...AND
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY S OR SE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
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#29 Postby Chacor » Tue Nov 06, 2007 9:19 am

Which means this is about to get in France's area...

THUNDERY LOW 1001 32N37W, SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND FILLING,
EXPECTED 1009 30N34W BY 07/12UTC.

They expect weakening.
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Re: INVEST 92L : Northeastern Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 06, 2007 9:23 am

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#31 Postby Squarethecircle » Tue Nov 06, 2007 9:24 am

It seems to be losing some of its convection. Could just be daily fluctuation, though.
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Re: INVEST 92L : Northeastern Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#32 Postby Sanibel » Tue Nov 06, 2007 9:40 am

31N is a little high.
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#33 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 06, 2007 9:52 am

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Not looking particularly elegant right now.
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#34 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 06, 2007 9:57 am

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This was probably it's best time.
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Re: INVEST 92L : Northeastern Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#35 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:14 am

NHC says bye bye!

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061610
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

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Re: INVEST 92L : Northeastern Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#36 Postby dtrain44 » Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:15 am

It's still on NRL, but it will need a lot of convection to get back on the NHC's radar. Man, I'm funny ;)
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#37 Postby Squarethecircle » Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:18 am

Convection is limited to the outer rim of the low and the east side, and even then, it is not flaring nicely. The sfc pressures are not falling, but they are fairly stable around 1000 hPa, correct? If the convection doesn't re-fire, then this shouldn't last long.
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#38 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:21 am

Was this yet another potential post-season upgrade?
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Re:

#39 Postby Chacor » Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:24 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Was this yet another potential post-season upgrade?


If this does get upgraded then I'd argue 95L earlier this season should also be upgraded, they looked pretty similar (with 95L having convection almost over its centre).
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Re: INVEST 92L : Northeastern Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#40 Postby dtrain44 » Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:26 am

95L looked better than this and I don't see either being upgraded. Weren't the Dvorak numbers at ST 2.5 on this one, though? I'd guess that there are a fair few marginal cases like this every year........
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