INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

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Re: INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#61 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:23 pm

07/1745 UTC 31.3N 31.6W ST1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean


The T Numbers from SSD are down after being during the last two days at ST2.5/2.5.
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Re: INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#62 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:32 pm

I'm just commenting on what the NHC will do with this. It's clear they'll do nothing unless it REALLY gets much better organized. Its origins were clearly of a cold-core low that dropped southward. Doesn't look like it was ever any more than that, though. Not tropical. Such lows are not uncommon. I don't think it should have been named (nor should Andrea or Jerry have been named).

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I agree tamp bay hurricane. I believe that system that raced off to the north west of Briton was a tropical storm to, this one looks like a tropical storm. I don't get why it would need to form a eye, but this just makes any seasonal forecast worthless. Why make a seasonal forecast, while the officals won't place every storm that develops on record to back it.

Thing looks good, nothing is perfect unless your dealing with a cat5, wxman57.
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Re: INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#63 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:46 pm

OT, but no sure where else to post it. I have been PM'd by a German poster about a tornado near Bergen/Celle today.
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Re: INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#64 Postby Squarethecircle » Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:56 pm

wxman57 wrote:(nor should Andrea or Jerry have been named).

Jerry was definitely at least subtropical, and so was Andrea. Naming conventions state that Sub-trops get names in the Atlantic. They were named appropriately.
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#65 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:20 pm

:darrow: 07/1745 UTC 31.3N 31.6W ST1.5/1.5 92L
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Re: INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#66 Postby HurricaneRobert » Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:35 pm

We already have the report on Jerry and it was tropical for at least 24 hours.
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#67 Postby dtrain44 » Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:15 pm

It looks like the convection is still well northeast of the center - wonder what the NHC will say here in about ten minutes. I'd think they'll say exactly what they did at 11:30.....
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Re: INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#68 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:17 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 072215
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST WED NOV 7 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 510 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

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#69 Postby dtrain44 » Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:26 pm

As long as it moves that way, further development is less likely and naming is essentially never going to happen........

I think this one's probably dead.
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#70 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:26 pm

I think this system is pretty much over.
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Re: INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#71 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Nov 07, 2007 10:35 pm

I agree with you wxman57 in the case of making it a soild line to upgrade or not to upgrade a tropical cyclone. I say droping Andrea,Barry, but I don't think Jerry was below this line, he looked organized and looked pretty good. I also feel that all storms below this line should be removed from the list. Yes, pro hurricane forecasters, this is a suggestion; do you think it is workable to remove all these systems that fall short of this standard that I'm putting up.

The new standard will be,,,

To become a tropical depression, the system must have minus 70c convection over the LLC, and have a closed LLC with out doubt. Meaning strong quickscat or ship/buoy data backing it. Also it has to have some feature like on its way to becoming a tropical storm over the next 24 hours. This would even out the Eastern Atlantic,northeastern Atlantic to what the Gulf and Carribean has,.

To become a tropical storm, this system must have a large area no less then 20 nmi wide of 39 mph winds at one minute. Also they must last at least 2-3 hours time frame. This will make sure they are soildly tropical storms. Also convection has to be right over the LLC. So a tropical storm can't be a sheared system, because remember that sheared systems over the eastern Atlantic don't get upgraded. So it would be fair. Also some banding must be developing.


To become a hurricane, a notable closed eyewall must be forming, and a large area of 75 mph winds must be on quickscat,obs,buoys or recon. It has to have some sign of a eye. To be a fair to all systems over the Atlantic.

This system would be a fair system for all the Atlantic.

Only then would I stop debating things with you and others. A fair system would put me into my place.
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#72 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 07, 2007 10:59 pm

I'm sorry, but as long as a tropical cyclone has sustained gale-force winds for a period of time, regardless whether it's 5 nmi out or 500 nmi out, it should be recognised as a tropical storm. The need for a minimum radius makes little sense. For large, strong hurricanes with small hurricane-force wind fields under your limit, what happens? Do you then not call a hurricane a hurricane? It's a stupid idea.

EDIT: Edited to clarify something, per Derek.
Last edited by Chacor on Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#73 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:02 pm

you cannot call every cyclone with gale force winds a tropical storm. Or are you referring to to warm core cyclones?
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#74 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:06 pm

Matt, where is that Tracy falls in your scale then?
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Re:

#75 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:07 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:you cannot call every cyclone with gale force winds a tropical storm. Or are you referring to to warm core cyclones?


Yes, I should have made that clear, I meant tropical cyclones, not just "cyclones".
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Re: INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#76 Postby Coredesat » Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:27 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I agree with you wxman57 in the case of making it a soild line to upgrade or not to upgrade a tropical cyclone. I say droping Andrea,Barry, but I don't think Jerry was below this line, he looked organized and looked pretty good. I also feel that all storms below this line should be removed from the list. Yes, pro hurricane forecasters, this is a suggestion; do you think it is workable to remove all these systems that fall short of this standard that I'm putting up.

The new standard will be,,,

To become a tropical depression, the system must have minus 70c convection over the LLC, and have a closed LLC with out doubt. Meaning strong quickscat or ship/buoy data backing it. Also it has to have some feature like on its way to becoming a tropical storm over the next 24 hours. This would even out the Eastern Atlantic,northeastern Atlantic to what the Gulf and Carribean has,.

To become a tropical storm, this system must have a large area no less then 20 nmi wide of 39 mph winds at one minute. Also they must last at least 2-3 hours time frame. This will make sure they are soildly tropical storms. Also convection has to be right over the LLC. So a tropical storm can't be a sheared system, because remember that sheared systems over the eastern Atlantic don't get upgraded. So it would be fair. Also some banding must be developing.


To become a hurricane, a notable closed eyewall must be forming, and a large area of 75 mph winds must be on quickscat,obs,buoys or recon. It has to have some sign of a eye. To be a fair to all systems over the Atlantic.

This system would be a fair system for all the Atlantic.

Only then would I stop debating things with you and others. A fair system would put me into my place.


Okay, so basically, almost no systems can become TDs, tropical storms, or hurricanes. Gotcha.

Chacor is right, that is a stupid idea; for one, it ignores cyclone phase entirely, and for two...it's just bad. I hate to be blunt, but it's the truth. By your standards, Humberto wouldn't be a hurricane (or possibly not a TS), and Tracy... Tracy probably wouldn't have been a tropical cyclone at all.

Just because you think a system is a tropical cyclone doesn't mean it is - the NHC usually has a reason for not upgrading something, plus systems east of 35W are technically not in its AOR (although it does have the agreement with Meteo-France). Quit whining.

As for 92L, it's dead. It's moving over cooler waters fairly quickly, and what little convection there was earlier is gone.
Last edited by Coredesat on Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#77 Postby Category 5 » Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:31 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I agree with you wxman57 in the case of making it a soild line to upgrade or not to upgrade a tropical cyclone. I say droping Andrea,Barry, but I don't think Jerry was below this line, he looked organized and looked pretty good. I also feel that all storms below this line should be removed from the list. Yes, pro hurricane forecasters, this is a suggestion; do you think it is workable to remove all these systems that fall short of this standard that I'm putting up.

The new standard will be,,,

To become a tropical depression, the system must have minus 70c convection over the LLC, and have a closed LLC with out doubt. Meaning strong quickscat or ship/buoy data backing it. Also it has to have some feature like on its way to becoming a tropical storm over the next 24 hours. This would even out the Eastern Atlantic,northeastern Atlantic to what the Gulf and Carribean has,.

To become a tropical storm, this system must have a large area no less then 20 nmi wide of 39 mph winds at one minute. Also they must last at least 2-3 hours time frame. This will make sure they are soildly tropical storms. Also convection has to be right over the LLC. So a tropical storm can't be a sheared system, because remember that sheared systems over the eastern Atlantic don't get upgraded. So it would be fair. Also some banding must be developing.


To become a hurricane, a notable closed eyewall must be forming, and a large area of 75 mph winds must be on quickscat,obs,buoys or recon. It has to have some sign of a eye. To be a fair to all systems over the Atlantic.

This system would be a fair system for all the Atlantic.

Only then would I stop debating things with you and others. A fair system would put me into my place.


Wait, WHAT?

I'll repeat what HURAKAN said, whats Tracy? A pop up thunderstorm?

This proposal would confuse and mislead the public. A storm like Humberto would be a tropical storm. Confusion like this would certainly lead to preventable deaths. Risking this just because some people think that nothing below cat 3 counts is just ridiculous, it makes as much sense as the JTWC naming a system in the Med.
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Re: INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#78 Postby dtrain44 » Thu Nov 08, 2007 12:23 am

I think it's telling that the only time these debates take place is when there's a pretty marginal system that's more or less out of the way. Sure, tropical cyclone naming is inconsistent at times. The primary purpose of naming systems is to be clear, avoid confusion, and provide clear warning. For systems like 92L, former 95L, Andrea, and the like, the debate is pretty much academic.....

It's an interesting issue and it's worth discussing, but I don't think that the NHC has failed us at all, even if they've required somewhat higher standards to initiate advisories on some systems than others. Given the purpose of the advisories, this is probably appropriate. I would also note that it's not altogether settled that there is a different standard for different parts of the Atlantic basin, although I believe that there probably is.
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Re: INVEST 92L : NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#79 Postby dtrain44 » Thu Nov 08, 2007 12:25 am

On 92L - it's still on NRL, but looks quite bad. I doubt this will even be an invest when I wake up in the morning. There's almost no convection and I'm having trouble seeing a clear circulation.....
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#80 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Nov 08, 2007 2:29 am

NOT official


i think that multiple more systems should have got names

lets see
95l europe
canary system
92l this one
the 96l system in august with great circulation and convection

ok so at least 18/6/2 IMO.
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