WPAC: Tropical Storm TAPAH 0722 : Images & Discussion

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WPAC: Tropical Storm TAPAH 0722 : Images & Discussion

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 10, 2007 4:55 pm

Image

Image

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 19N 140E ALMOST STATIONARY.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7N
147.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 143.6E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN. RECENT ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA ORGANIZING DEEP CONVECTION WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 092043Z WINDSAT IMAGE
REVEALS THIS WEAK CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF
THE DISTURBANCE. THESE FEATURES ARE PROVIDING GOOD DIFFLUENCE
AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND IMPROVING ORGANIZATION
OF THE WEAK LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
FAIR.


WAKE UP PEOPLE!
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Re: WPAC: Invest 90W: Images & Discussion

#2 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 10, 2007 6:42 pm

Image

Image

10/2030 UTC 19.7N 140.7E T2.0/2.0 90W -- West Pacific Ocean
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#3 Postby WindRunner » Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:45 pm

Well, if I remember correctly, it looked very similar to that about four days ago, and practically lost all of that convection. Now it looks like that has all returned for now . . . the only question will be if/how much it can intensify before hitting the strong westerlies, of which the southern edge is only about 5 degrees north of its current position.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 90W: Images & Discussion

#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 11, 2007 12:47 am

Image
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#5 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 11, 2007 12:52 am

199
WTPN21 PGTW 110400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.5N 140.4E TO 22.2N 137.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 110000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.8N 140.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.7N
143.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 140.0E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. RECENT ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ORGANIZING, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 102304Z
SSMI IMAGE REVEALS THIS LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THE DISTURBANCE IS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD POLEWARD VENTING.
THIS FEATURES IS PROVIDING GOOD DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 120400Z.
//
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Re: WPAC: Invest 90W: Images & Discussion

#6 Postby P.K. » Sun Nov 11, 2007 5:30 am

WWJP25 RJTD 110600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 35N 143E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 39N 147E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 60
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 41N 147E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 1006 HPA
AT 40N 138E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 28N 125E 25N 125E 20N 122E 20N 115E 23N 115E 26N 120E 28N
122E 28N 125E.
GALE WARNING.
WESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 53N
150E 53N 160E 55N 165E 55N 172E 48N 172E 47N 160E 48N 150E 53N 150E.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 20.0N 139.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 11N 134E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 39N 118E SSE 25 KT.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 41N 161E ESE 35 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N 139E TO 30N 144E 32N 146E 31N 150E 30N 160E
31N 170E 33N 180E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Re: WPAC: Invest 90W: Images & Discussion

#7 Postby P.K. » Sun Nov 11, 2007 8:17 am

TS forecast within 12 hours.

FKPQ30 RJTD 111200
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20071111/1200Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: TD
NR: 1
PSN: N2030 E14030
MOV: ALMOST STATIONARY
C: 1002HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 12/0000Z N2100 E14035
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 12/1200Z N2130 E14050
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
NXT MSG: 20071111/1800Z =
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#8 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:46 pm

Well on its way to becoming Tapah.
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 11, 2007 2:07 pm

11/1430 UTC 20.7N 139.8E T2.5/2.5 22W -- West Pacific Ocean
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Re: WPAC:Tropical Depression 22w: Images & Discussion

#10 Postby P.K. » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:05 pm

T2.5 from RJTD so this will likely be named shortly.
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:08 pm

11/2030 UTC 21.0N 140.3E T3.0/3.0 22W -- West Pacific Ocean
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Coredesat

#12 Postby Coredesat » Sun Nov 11, 2007 8:11 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0722 TAPAH (0722) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 22.2N 142.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 23.0N 143.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 140000UTC 24.0N 144.0E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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#13 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 11, 2007 8:38 pm

Going to remain weak then.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm TAPAH 0722 : Images & Discussion

#14 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:00 pm

40-45 knots based on visible satellite. For one there is great outflow and nice cdo.
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#15 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:08 pm

I have to question why JTWC hasn't upgraded this to a TS yet. It's the 4th time this year they've lagged behind the JMA (JTWC did not even call TS Haiyan and Podul as TDs, while it called TS Faxai only a TD).
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Re:

#16 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:02 pm

Chacor wrote:I have to question why JTWC hasn't upgraded this to a TS yet. It's the 4th time this year they've lagged behind the JMA (JTWC did not even call TS Haiyan and Podul as TDs, while it called TS Faxai only a TD).


JTWC has now upgraded. It also seems they've updated the track to show a TS at 18z.
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#17 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:21 pm

Forecasted to weaken quickly though.
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#18 Postby WindRunner » Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:45 am

The westerlies are alive and well in the WPAC . . . doubt it will survive much past 18z, at least tropically.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm TAPAH 0722 : Images & Discussion

#19 Postby P.K. » Mon Nov 12, 2007 8:26 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0722 TAPAH (0722)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 23.4N 144.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 25.9N 150.9E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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#20 Postby Squarethecircle » Mon Nov 12, 2007 6:34 pm

Almost certainly dead now.
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