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BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 10, 2007 4:59 pm

Image

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Derek Ortt

Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: Invest 91B: Images & Discussion

#2 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Nov 10, 2007 5:20 pm

looking quite good now. When it will officially be classified by IMD though is anyones guess
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: Invest 91B: Images & Discussion

#3 Postby P.K. » Sat Nov 10, 2007 5:25 pm

Not yet a LPA in the last bulletin.

FQIN01 DEMS 101800

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 12 HOURS. FROM 10/11/2007 1800 UTC 10 NOV 2007
=============================================================
PART -I : NO STORM WARNING(.)

PART-II :

WEATHER SEASONAL OVER MET AREA (VIII) (.)

PART III : FORECAST(.)

A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N AND W OF 70 DEG.E(.)
I)WIND:NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY : POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA :SMOOTH TO SLIGHT (.)

ARB :A2 ARABIAN SEA N. OF 10 DEG N.AND W OF 80 DEG E.(.)
I)WIND :(1)WEST OF 65 DEG E:-NW/N 10/15 KTS BEC NE TO THE S OF
14 DEG.N(.)
(2)EAST OF 65 DEG E:-NW/N 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER :FAIR(.)
III) VISIBILITY :GOOD(.)
IV) STATE OF SEA :SMOOTH TO SLIGHT (.)

BOB : A3 BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 12 DEG.N AND E OF 80 DEG.E(.)
I) WIND : W 15/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 07 DEG.N
E. OF 94 DEG E (.)

II) WEATEHR : FAIRLY WIDE-SPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 85 DEG E (.)
REST AREA ISOLATED (.)
III)VISIBILITY:POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA :SLIGHT TO MODERATE(.)

BOB A4 : BAY OF BENGAL N OF 12 DEG.N (.)
I) WIND : MAINLY NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II) WEATHER:SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE S OF 13 DEG.N (.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILTY : POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA : SMOOTH TO SLIGHT (.)


ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
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#4 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:14 pm

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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 10, 2007 10:17 pm

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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 10, 2007 10:20 pm

ImageImage
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Derek Ortt

#7 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Nov 10, 2007 10:30 pm

I wonder what a TC needs to be classified by IMD? Do we need a T number of 8.5 to have something called a cyclonic storm?
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Re:

#8 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 10, 2007 10:34 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I wonder what a TC needs to be classified by IMD? Do we need a T number of 8.5 to have something called a cyclonic storm?


Image

I have the same frustration with the WPAC as their agencies tend to jump late in many cases.
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Re:

#9 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Nov 10, 2007 11:23 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I wonder what a TC needs to be classified by IMD? Do we need a T number of 8.5 to have something called a cyclonic storm?


Where does one find Dvorak numbers on IO TCs/Invests?

I assume this is heading in the general direction of India, but I've heard they have been slow to issue advisories when Pakistan, which openly supports terrorists in India, is threatened by a system.
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Re: Re:

#10 Postby RL3AO » Sat Nov 10, 2007 11:53 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I wonder what a TC needs to be classified by IMD? Do we need a T number of 8.5 to have something called a cyclonic storm?


Where does one find Dvorak numbers on IO TCs/Invests?


I'm not sure if/where other ones are but here: 11/0230 UTC 9.7N 92.5E T1.5/1.5 91B
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#11 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 11, 2007 5:01 am

TS 06B from JTWC.

REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 92.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A DVORAK SATELLITE IN-
TENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS, AS WELL AS A RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGE
SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 110309Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER THIS
TIME, THE STORM WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS A WEAKNESS IN THE
STR DEVELOPS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO
MODERATE AND OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. DUE TO THESE MOSTLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY MOD-
ERATELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 102121Z NOV 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 102130) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND
120900Z.//

Image
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: Invest 91B: Images & Discussion

#12 Postby P.K. » Sun Nov 11, 2007 5:32 am

WTIN20 DEMS 110750

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
------------------------
DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 11 -11-2007 (.)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE
BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)

A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF
BANGAL AND NEIGHBOURHOOD (.) THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BECOME MORE MARKED (.)


CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA,
SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF EXTRME PENINSULAR
INDIA(.)

RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH LAT 11.0 DEG. NORTH
OVER INDIAN REGION (.)
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: Invest 91B: Images & Discussion

#13 Postby P.K. » Sun Nov 11, 2007 8:05 am

BOB 0709 has formed.

BOB 09/2007/01 Dated: 11 November, 2007

Sub: Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal.

A depression has formed over south east Bay of Bengal And adjoining Andaman Sea and lay Centered at 1430 hours IST of 11 November 2007 near lat . 10.0 Deg N and Long. 92.0 Deg E about 200 Kms south-southwest of Port Blair. the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west north westerly direction.

Under its influence, rain/thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and Isolated extremely heavy falls ( 25 cm or more ) , are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and adjoing sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea condition rough to very rough around the system centre. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea during the same period.
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#14 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:03 am

This isn't "Tropical Cyclone 0709", please update the topic title accordingly - it's just a depression (lower classification than deep depression, which is roughly equal to a TD)
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#15 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:25 am

Eh... the term "tropical depression" is not used in this basin, so the topic is still wrong. Besides, if you're going according to the JTWC, this is already a tropical storm.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#16 Postby Sanibel » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:32 am

Whoa. Improving just north of the Nicobar Islands and moving into the heart of the Bay. This one could be something. All the others formed near shore this year. Is it still warm enough? The frigid Himalayas are not too far away.
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#17 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:54 am

I believe the board has always used tropical depression in the Indian ocean to denote depression and deep depression to denote a deep depression


Regardless, this has the makings of a classic (and very destructive) Bay of Bengal cyclone
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#18 Postby RL3AO » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:57 am

You are right Derek. We all know what can happen if this thing got in the Northern BOB.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#19 Postby HurricaneRobert » Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:16 pm

I don't suppose this one will be 'Yemyin.' IMD might not ever name it if they are as timely as they were last time.
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#20 Postby WindRunner » Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:19 pm

Ship report of 32kts/1005.7hPa at 12z in the NW quad of the storm, just outside of the main core of the convection.
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