BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

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Chacor
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Re:

#101 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 12, 2007 10:10 am

Derek Ortt wrote:that looks like a T 6.0

could you write the "advisory" with some reliable info (not Incompetent meteorological department)


Well, JTWC are slacking on this one too. They chose not to issue a bulletin at 15z (they issue 12-hourly until hurricane strength, when they issue 6-hourly), and on NRL it's listed at ONLY 70 kts.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Cyclone SIDR 0709

#102 Postby Sanibel » Mon Nov 12, 2007 10:16 am

You can see a diagonal weather border going SW to NE along the top part of the north quadrant.

This looks like a potential monster but there could be cool fall air up by the coast there. I don't know the area well enough to say.

Tight stadium eye right now. Impressive cyclone.

I've never seen a pinhole eye on a category 1.
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#103 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 12, 2007 10:21 am

JTWC had T4.5 at 1130z, fwiw.
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Derek Ortt

#104 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Nov 12, 2007 10:30 am

the global models are weakening the cyclone after 48 hours. I am not too sure why

Euro is into Bangledesh, NCEP into India, while UKMET has a very slow motion
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#105 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Nov 12, 2007 10:31 am

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#106 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 12, 2007 10:33 am

T6.0 seems about right. When I wake up I almost expect to see a high-end IMD Very Severe Cyclonic Storm.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Cyclone SIDR 0709

#107 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 12, 2007 10:41 am

Image

Image
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Cyclone SIDR 0709

#108 Postby Sanibel » Mon Nov 12, 2007 10:43 am

By eye alone, no less than category 2.
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#109 Postby WindRunner » Mon Nov 12, 2007 10:52 am

Code: Select all

                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 7.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  12 NOV 2007    Time :   153000 UTC
      Lat :   11:17:15 N     Lon :   90:10:40 E

                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.8 / 932.6mb/109.8kt

      6hr-Avg T#  3hr-Avg T#   Adj T#   Raw T#
         5.5         5.8        5.8      6.8

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +0.0mb

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

 Center Temp :  -8.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -76.8C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

 Ocean Basin : INDIAN       
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

****************************************************


And that's up from 3.8 only four hours prior (1130z).
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#110 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Nov 12, 2007 10:56 am

It appears to be the equivalent to a category 3 hurricane. I say no less then 105 knots.

If that is a pin-hole eye, expect it to reach category 4 strength today.
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#111 Postby Coredesat » Mon Nov 12, 2007 10:56 am

Looks good (structure-wise), though it's not far from the subtropical westerlies.

Looks bad (risk-wise) for Bangladesh if this keeps going where it's going, though. I'm at work right now and don't have access to the 12Z models - I'll have to check them later.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Cyclone SIDR 0709

#112 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Mon Nov 12, 2007 11:37 am

Urgghhh....never a good place to see a severe storm. I see it's bombed today. Lets hope those westerlies which were mentioned above can tear it apart before it reaches land.
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#113 Postby Coredesat » Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:00 pm

THE CYCLONIC STORM(SIDR) OVER SE BAY MOVED NW WARDS AND
INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTRED
AT 1200UTC OF TODAY THE 12 NOV 2007 OVER SE BAY WITHIN HALF
A DEG OF LAT 11.5 DEG N AND LONG 90.0 DEG E ABOUT 300KMS W OF PBL
(.)SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A
NW-LY DIRECTION INTIALLY(.)

FKIN20 VIDP 121606
DTG : 20071112/1200Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC : SIDR
NR : 03
PSN : N1130 E09000
MOV : NW09KT
C : 992HPA
MAX WIND: 55KT GUSTING TO 65KT
FCST PSN+12HRS: 130000 N 1230 E08900
MAX WIND+12HRS: 65KT
FCST PSN+18HRS: 130600 N 1300 E08830
MAX WIND+18HRS: 70KT
FCST PSN+24HRS: 131200 N 1330 E08830
MAX WIND+24HRS: 75KT
NEXT MSG: 20071112/1800Z
TOO : 12/2030 HRS IST.
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Derek Ortt

#114 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:11 pm

do they not see the eye or the reliable satellite estimates?
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Cyclone SIDR 0709

#115 Postby Squarethecircle » Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:48 pm

They don't see... This is a freaking monster, well above tropical storm strength... Almost looks annular, even, though it's unlikely... If this thing doesn't weaken before Bangladesh landfall, then very, very bad things could happen.
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#116 Postby btangy » Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:50 pm

Even using a 10min average, that wind speed doesn't even come close to what the objective and subjective aides are saying. The gusts are even more unfathomable. The WMO needs to step in a correct this deficiency as it is negligent for IMD to be issuing advisories that are so incredibly off.
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Re:

#117 Postby Squarethecircle » Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:57 pm

btangy wrote:Even using a 10min average, that wind speed doesn't even come close to what the objective and subjective aides are saying. The gusts are even more unfathomable. The WMO needs to step in a correct this deficiency as it is negligent for IMD to be issuing advisories that are so incredibly off.


The WMO, although it would be very nice for them to do so, will do no such thing. They aren't that concerned with things that are this "trivial", and it won't even make an attempt until the IMD does something crazy, like forecast the thing as a TS when it bears down with T-numbers higher than six onto the Bangladesh coast (Though I'm not sure that will happen at all). The eye, by the way, is less defined but shrinking, and there's no concentric eyewall feature.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Cyclone SIDR 0709

#118 Postby Derecho » Mon Nov 12, 2007 1:01 pm

Squarethecircle wrote:They don't see... This is a freaking monster, well above tropical storm strength... Almost looks annular, even, though it's unlikely.



This is about as far from annular as it's possible for a TC to be.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Cyclone SIDR 0709

#119 Postby P.K. » Mon Nov 12, 2007 1:35 pm

PGTW are up to T5.5 from T4.5 six hours ago.

TPIO10 PGTW 121810

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIDR)

B. 12/1730Z

C. 11.6N/8

D. 90.0E/9

E. ONE/MET7

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS (12/1730Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

05A/PBO SML EYE/ANMTN. LG SURROUNDING GRAY SHADE AND DG
EYE TEMP WITH BANDING FEATURE YIELDS A 5.5 DT. PT
AGREES. MET AN UNREP 4.5. DBO DT.

AMES
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Derek Ortt

#120 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Nov 12, 2007 1:41 pm

EWRC should commence within the next 12 hours.
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