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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Cyclone SIDR

#81 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:14 am

Since its 09B based on IMD...But I do like the JTWC so it will be for now on 06B.

Also I will make a discussion at 2am pst/5am est. And again tomarrow afternoon.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#82 Postby btangy » Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:18 am

Very impressive satellite signature. 2Z SSMIS overpass shows a well defined eye (perhaps slightly open on the S side of the storm):

Image

12Z guidance is in fairly good agreement through 48 hours with a WNW turning more northwesterly and northerly by 48 hours. Thereafter, there is divergence with the NOGAPS and ECMWF farthest E and fastest and the GFS farthest W and slowest with the GFDN in between. The UKMET is an outlier showing much slower movement.

The small core of 06B lends itself to quick swings in intensity. There is little doubt given the microwave imagery that we have a cyclone, and likely quickly intensifying one. Potential intensity increases along the forecasted track. CIMSS has diagnosed approximately 10knots of southerly to southeasterly shear over the system. A strong poleward jet will aid intensification in the short term, but there's a strong shear zone to the N of 06B. The GFDN strengths 06B quickly to ~130 knots in 60 hours, but the STIPS only to approximately 60 knots in 60 hours. Given recent trends, the GFDN may be more on track in the short term. This has quite the potential to be a devastating situation for the region in about 3-4 days.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#83 Postby HurricaneRobert » Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:23 am

Sanibel wrote:What is the tropical potential in the Bay Of Bengal at this time of year? That depression has very good symmetry and depth. Night and day difference from all storms this year in the Bay.


November's usually about the peak of the season. The BoB is most likely to see major storms including Category 5's around this time. (The infamous one in 1970 that killed 500,000 people was 37 years ago tonight).
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#84 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:23 am

Image

Better by the minute.
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#85 Postby WindRunner » Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:53 am

Of course, we also must go back and remember that this might not be called Yemyin, as that is what the Pakistanis named the last Arabian "deep depression" with a partial eyewall at landfall . . . of course, with politics the way they are I'm sure the Indians could care less, but it will be interesting nonetheless.


As for the JTWC forecast, it's looking pretty good so far. A smidge south of the 12hr forecast position, and it's probably about an hour faster than the forecast.
Granted, the intensity forecast was for 55kts . . . but I think we can all make our own assumptions there.

Image

Note: the background image is from 04z.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#86 Postby RattleMan » Mon Nov 12, 2007 1:26 am

Well, we now have no doubts regarding Yemyin:

BOB 09/2007/05 Dated: 12 November, 2007

Sub: Cyclonic storm ‘SIDR” over Southeast Bay of Bengal.

The deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal And adjoining Andaman Sea moved slightly westwards and intensified into a cyclonic storm “SIDR” and lay centered at 0830 hours IST of today, the 12th November 2007 over southeast Bay of Bengal near Lat. 10.5 Deg N and Long. 91.0 Deg E, about 220 Kms southwest of Port Blair. The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a northwesterly direction initially.

Under its influence, rain/thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( 25 cm or more ) are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 24 hours.

Squally winds speed reaching 70-80 kmph are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea condition is high to very high around the system centre. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during the next 48 hours.
-------------------------

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 12-11-2007

TROPICAL STORM “SIDR” ADVISORY NO. ONE ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 12 NOVEMBER, 2007 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 12 NOVEMBER 2007 (.)

YESTERDAY’S DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA MOVED SLIGHTLY WESTWARDS AND INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM “SIDR” AND LAY CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 12TH NOVEMBER 2007 OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 10.5 DEG N AND LONG. 91.0 DEG E, ABOUT 220 KMS SOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR.

CURRENT INTENSITY T2.5 RPT T2.5 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED 35-45 KTS. SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002hPa.

THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INITIALLY. 24 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY IS T3.5 RPT T3.5 SEA CONDITION WILL BE HIGH TO VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
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#87 Postby WindRunner » Mon Nov 12, 2007 1:31 am

Haha, well that tells you something . . . IMD decided to operationally skip Yemyin. Should make for an interesting explanation in BT data . . .
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#88 Postby Coredesat » Mon Nov 12, 2007 1:38 am

Actually, IMD named Yemyin in post-analysis:

http://www.webcitation.org/5QzqpfB7g

On the Wikipedia side of things, we were waiting for official confirmation - that is, the naming of the next system. With Sidr, the dilemma is finally resolved.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#89 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Nov 12, 2007 2:00 am

Tropical cyclone SIDR
11pm pst/2am est
11-11-2007
forecast 2#
Unoffical


...Tropical cyclone 06B is upgraded to tropical cyclone Sidr, the latest satelite shows a system that is strengthening at a fast rate.

Based on latest satellites of our tropical cyclone, it has strengthen since the last forecast discussion. Latest 85h satellite images from NRL, shows a soild eye wall. Which appears better fit to system of 70-80 knots at this time. Also outflow out of all quads look good to perfect, in fact over the next 24 hours, the overall outflow can only get better as shear to the north helps to enhances the outflow channel. The latest visible shows a nice eye pocking out, which also supports the 70-80 knots talked about above. Quickscat shows a few areas of 50-60 knots. This is slightly old. So current winds are being set at 70 knots with pressure est at near 975-978 millibars. The TCHP can support upwards of cat3 and maybe cat4 like cyclones. So it is not out of the picture that our system could explode into a fairly strong system. In fact we are forecasting that our system will be near 90-95 knots by 24 hours with this forecast, so a slight move forward in time frame. Also at 36 hours this system could be 100-105 knots. Based on some Gfdl models forecasting much higher then this, it is not out of possible it could be much stronger.

Based on satellite images a weakness is forming to the north of system, as a frontal system moves by near 30 north. The winds at 500-700 millibars is very strong over the northern Indian ocean of upwards of 50-60 knots. Overall enviroment should improve as the system heads northward or northwestward over the next 36 hours.


forecast
0 70 knots 10.6/90.5
6 75 knots 10.9/90.2
12 85 knots 11.4/89.8
24 90 knots 11.9/89.4
36 100 knots 12.7/88.7

Next forecast will be issued tomarrow afternoon.
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#90 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 12, 2007 2:07 am

130
FKIN20 VIDP 120640

DTG : 20071112/0300Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC : SIDR
NR : 01


PSN : N1030 E09100
MOV : WNW05KT
C : 1002HPA
MAX WIND: 40KT GUSTING TO 50KT


FCST PSN+12HRS: 121500 N 1130 E09000
MAX WIND+12HRS: 50KT
FCST PSN+ 18HRS: 122100 N 1200 E08930
MAX WIND+ 18HRS: 55KT
FCST PSN+ 24HRS: 130300 N 1230 E08900
MAX WIND+ 24HRS: 60KT


NEXT MSG: 20071112/0600Z
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#91 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 12, 2007 4:15 am

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 12-11-2007

TROPICAL STORM “SIDR” ADVISORY NO. TWO ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 12 NOVEMBER, 2007.

THE CYCLONIC STORM “SIDR OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 12TH NOVEMBER 2007 OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 11.0 N AND LONG 90.5 E, ABOUT 250 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR.

CURRENT INTENSITY: T3.0 RPT T3.0. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED 40-50 KTS.SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW BROKEN INTNESE TO VERY INTENSE CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA.

SEA CONDITION: HIGH TO VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INITIALLY.

24 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY: T4.0 RPT T4.0.
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
515
FKIN20 VIDP 120900

DTG : 20071112/0600Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC : SIDR
NR : 02


PSN : N1100 E09030
MOV : WNW08KT
C : 998HPA
MAX WIND: 45KT GUSTING TO 55KT


FCST PSN+12HRS: 121800 N 1200 E08930
MAX WIND+12HRS: 55KT
FCST PSN+18HRS: 130000 N 1230 E08900
MAX WIND+18HRS: 60KT
FCST PSN+24HRS: 130600 N 1300 E08830
MAX WIND+24HRS: 65KT


NEXT MSG: 20071112/1200Z




TOO : 12/1400 HRS IST.
Last edited by Chacor on Mon Nov 12, 2007 4:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#92 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 12, 2007 4:32 am

The following post is NOT an official bulletin and should not be used as such. It is not written using official WMO-RSMC information, although some official information has been included, nor is the post endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the relevant JTWC and IMD products.

BULLETIN
CYCLONIC STORM SIDR ADVISORY
3 PM IST... 0930Z... MON NOV 12 2007

...CYCLONIC STORM WEST OF ANDAMAN ISLANDS STRENGTHENING...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR ALL ISLANDS IN THE ANDAMAN AND
NICOBAR CHAIN.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAY OF BENGAL...INCLUDING WESTERN MYANMAR...
BANGLADESH...AND NORTHEASTERN INDIA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DEADLY STORM.

AT 2 PM IST...0830Z...THE CENTRE OF CYCLONIC STORM SIDR WAS ESTIMATED BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4
EAST...ABOUT 170 MILES OR 270 KILOMETRES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR...INDIA.

CYCLONIC STORM SIDR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 MPH OR 15 KM/H...
AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM 3-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE IMD...
50 MPH OR 85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS...65 MPH OR 100 KM/H. FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM MOVES DEEPER INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL...
REACHING VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM/HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE JTWC...
GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE-FORCE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ACCORDING TO THE IMD IS 998 HPA...29.47 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 0830Z POSITION...NEAR 10.8 NORTH 90.4 EAST. MOVEMENT TOWARD...
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 KM/H 3-MINUTE.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...OFFICIALLY 998 HPA.

Image
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#93 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Nov 12, 2007 4:34 am

For those who have IDV - do you know of good satellite resources for the Indian Ocean? TIA.
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#94 Postby Squarethecircle » Mon Nov 12, 2007 7:04 am

It's interesting that the winds are so low, yet it still has an eye, though the Met Centres over there generally lag a little bit behind the storms. The eye is definitely a nice feature, and the forecast track looks at least a bit scary.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Cyclone SIDR 0709

#95 Postby P.K. » Mon Nov 12, 2007 8:09 am

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 12-11-2007

TROPICAL STORM “SIDR” ADVISORY NO. THREE ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF 12 NOVEMBER, 2007.

THE CYCLONIC STORM “SIDR OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 12TH NOVEMBER 2007 OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 11.00 N AND LONG 90.50 E, ABOUT 250 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR.

CURRENT INTENSITY: T3.0 RPT T3.0. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED 40-50 KTS.SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW BROKEN INTNESE TO VERY INTENSE CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA.

SEA CONDITION: HIGH TO VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INITIALLY.

24 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY: T4.0 RPT T4.0.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Cyclone SIDR 0709

#96 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 12, 2007 8:43 am

Image

Image

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 NOV 2007 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 11:15:50 N Lon : 90:10:55 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 956.4mb/ 87.4kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.9 5.8 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 9 km

Center Temp : -27.1C Cloud Region Temp : -76.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
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#97 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 12, 2007 8:44 am

Image

Talk about a pin-hole eye.
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#98 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 12, 2007 9:13 am

We're dealing with a very serious system.

Nice ring of -80C cloud tops:
Image
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#99 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Nov 12, 2007 9:49 am

that looks like a T 6.0

could you write the "advisory" with some reliable info (not Incompetent meteorological department)
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#100 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 12, 2007 9:59 am

Image
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