INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

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INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 10, 2007 8:32 pm

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#2 Postby RL3AO » Sat Nov 10, 2007 8:58 pm

I guess we can see what the models say but I don't expect it to even approach TD criteria.
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#3 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:05 pm

Wow... last thing I expected to see when I randomly decided to click Active Storms, honestly.

The tropics aren't dead yet it appears.

Should be interesting to see what the NHC thinks at 10:30.
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INVEST 93L Models Thread

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:19 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 110135
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0135 UTC SUN NOV 11 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20071111 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071111 0000 071111 1200 071112 0000 071112 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.9N 78.4W 11.2N 80.1W 11.6N 82.1W 11.8N 84.6W
BAMD 10.9N 78.4W 11.4N 80.0W 11.9N 81.9W 12.4N 84.2W
BAMM 10.9N 78.4W 11.2N 80.1W 11.7N 82.2W 12.0N 84.5W
LBAR 10.9N 78.4W 11.5N 79.7W 12.5N 81.5W 13.7N 83.6W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071113 0000 071114 0000 071115 0000 071116 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 87.1W 11.7N 92.1W 10.9N 97.6W 11.1N 103.0W
BAMD 12.8N 86.9W 13.7N 92.4W 15.1N 96.8W 18.2N 99.3W
BAMM 12.3N 87.1W 12.7N 92.7W 13.0N 97.3W 14.2N 101.2W
LBAR 14.9N 85.4W 16.9N 87.9W 17.1N 88.9W 17.2N 90.2W
SHIP 42KTS 46KTS 41KTS 34KTS
DSHP 31KTS 35KTS 30KTS 23KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 78.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 77.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 76.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Image
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#5 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:22 pm

Land bound. No big shocker, there.
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussion & Images

#6 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:24 pm

Should be inland into southern Nicaragua in about 36 hours. Slight chance it could become a TD before moving inland. That's about it. No chance of it turning north.
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussion & Images

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:34 pm

This is a surprise for me to see this as a invest,and I am sure that for many here.This shows why the hurricane seasons are from June 1 to November 30th.In the tropics,the frase " Never say Never in the tropics" applies in a big way.
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussion & Images

#8 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:43 pm

I don't think this has a large chance of becoming anything, if anything we could see one more over the central-north Atlantic around late November as normal. It may even have to form a eye to become something, but that is the way it is. This, not a great chance of becoming anything.
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussion & Images

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 10, 2007 10:19 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 110318
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN THIS
AREA TONIGHT...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING FEW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND
NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 10, 2007 10:19 pm

Another one that is almost there, but not quite!

Image
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussion & Images

#11 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 10, 2007 10:28 pm

From the satellite loop, I can see a feature moving rapidly westward across the frontal trof in the SW Caribbean. It's responsible for the flare-up in storms this evening. That system will be inland into Nicaragua tomorrow, so the thunderstorms may decrease on Sunday.
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#12 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Nov 11, 2007 12:04 am

Continues to look better...

Looking good enough to convince me it could become a depression just before landfall.
Image
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussion & Images

#13 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 11, 2007 12:48 am

Image

Image
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 11, 2007 12:50 am

TWD 105:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NIGHT IS A 1008 MB LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N79W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW TO JUST S OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS HAITI TO S OF JAMAICA 17N76W. THIS IS GIVING
THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM
OF A LINE FROM ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W ALONG 15N78W TO THE
COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA NEAR 9N82W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 13N75W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
16N60W. THIS IS PRODUCING AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W/71W. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ARE SHOWING A FEW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...IT COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussion & Images

#15 Postby ronjon » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:23 am

Looking quite healthy this morning with some convective banding starting to form. Not moving much either. I see low pressure on the SE side of the convective mass near 10N-80.5W. I think it has a chance to become Olga over the next 24 hrs. Steering winds would push whatever formed toward the W or NW into CA.

Image
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussion & Images

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:36 am

11/1145 UTC 10.5N 80.5W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

You are right ronjon about not moving much.Overnight position below.

11/0545 UTC 10.7N 80.5W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussion & Images

#17 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 11, 2007 8:44 am

It appears to be moving at a good clip to the west, to me. Surface obs suggest a center closer to 11.5N/82.5W. The heaviest convection is now only 75nm off the coast of Nicaragua. At the rate the convection is moving, it may be mostly inland by this evening. Here's the latest analysis with the crosshairs indicating where the center might be. It's possible that there's a weak LLC farther east, but I can't locate it without a longer visible loop. And if it is farther east, then the heavy convection is to its west:

Image
Last edited by wxman57 on Sun Nov 11, 2007 8:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussion & Images

#18 Postby gatorcane » Sun Nov 11, 2007 8:58 am

is everything supposed to hit Nicaragua this season? Good grief.

Will anything move NW from the Caribbean? Maybe by December when some arctic cold fronts push down something will finally move northward from the Caribbean.
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussion & Images

#19 Postby Sanibel » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:16 am

Yes, this had obvious cyclogenesis yesterday. The center is hard to see. I would also say from the surface spiral that it is more to the east of the convection center, but is still moving west towards Nicaragua/Costa Rica. (far south for a storm) Even the north coast of Panama can see the bands from shore. That is way far south for a system. 2007!

Caribbean was the hot spot this year. Most storms at this time come north, but 2007 will probably hold true as anomolous. Tracks are never a given. Even Mitch's remnants moved north and just south of Sanibel.
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussion & Images

#20 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:22 am

gatorcane wrote:is everything supposed to hit Nicaragua this season? Good grief.

Will anything move NW from the Caribbean? Maybe by December when some arctic cold fronts push down something will finally move northward from the Caribbean.


Not this year. Here's a 400mb-700mb mean wind flow valid 15Z (9am CST) this morning. That flow pattern won't allow anything to move into the Gulf or toward Florida. Certainly not 93L. Maybe next year.

Image
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