INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussion & Images

#21 Postby Sanibel » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:27 am

Systems don't move into High's. The only chance would be for that Gulf High to retrograde and 93L ride the weakness between the two High's. But that isn't likely with a prevailing easterly flow in the Caribbean.
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Re: INVEST 93L Models Thread

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:27 am

750
WHXX01 KWBC 111419
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1419 UTC SUN NOV 11 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20071111 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071111 1200 071112 0000 071112 1200 071113 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.2N 81.2W 11.5N 82.9W 11.6N 85.1W 11.9N 87.6W
BAMD 11.2N 81.2W 11.6N 83.1W 11.9N 85.5W 12.4N 88.1W
BAMM 11.2N 81.2W 11.5N 83.0W 11.7N 85.3W 12.0N 87.8W
LBAR 11.2N 81.2W 11.8N 83.2W 12.8N 85.7W 13.7N 88.3W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 28KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071113 1200 071114 1200 071115 1200 071116 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 90.1W 11.8N 95.2W 11.8N 100.3W 12.5N 105.7W
BAMD 12.9N 91.0W 14.2N 96.1W 15.9N 100.4W 18.6N 103.1W
BAMM 12.3N 90.6W 12.8N 95.9W 13.6N 100.8W 15.3N 105.0W
LBAR 14.8N 90.7W 15.8N 94.0W 15.9N 96.2W 16.3N 97.3W
SHIP 44KTS 43KTS 39KTS 37KTS
DSHP 36KTS 35KTS 31KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 81.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 79.3W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 77.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussion & Images

#23 Postby Sanibel » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:41 am

Image
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussion & Images

#24 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:54 am

I have a 2-hour loop now. When I put my cursor at 11.2N/81.2W (where 12Z models were initialized by NHC), there's nothing there. No rotation. The farthest east I could put the center is about 55 miles west of there near 82.1W, and that's only 100 miles offshore. Even at a speed of only 10kts, it's inland this evening. This may well be the last gasp of the 2007 season.
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussion & Images

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 11, 2007 11:06 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111603
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST SUN NOV 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. THE LOW IS
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND...ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND
NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH
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#26 Postby RL3AO » Sun Nov 11, 2007 11:14 am

Just not enough time. If you want Olga, you better look into the subtropics.
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#27 Postby MGC » Sun Nov 11, 2007 12:57 pm

Story of the 2007, plenty of disturbances just not located in an area favorable for development. ......MGC
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#28 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:34 pm

RL3AO wrote:Just not enough time. If you want Olga, you better look into the subtropics.


Yep I agree, it ain't easy to get late season storms in the deep tropics...
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#29 Postby Sanibel » Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:39 pm

There's a weird vortex over at 80W that could be an EPAC/land interaction quirk.
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:45 pm

11/1745 UTC 10.5N 79.8W T1.0/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
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Re: INVEST 93L Models Thread

#31 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:48 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 111835
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC SUN NOV 11 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20071111 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071111 1800 071112 0600 071112 1800 071113 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 81.8W 10.9N 83.9W 10.9N 86.5W 10.6N 89.3W
BAMD 11.0N 81.8W 11.2N 84.3W 11.3N 87.4W 11.6N 90.9W
BAMM 11.0N 81.8W 11.0N 84.0W 11.2N 86.7W 11.2N 89.7W
LBAR 11.0N 81.8W 11.4N 83.7W 12.2N 86.2W 13.1N 88.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071113 1800 071114 1800 071115 1800 071116 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.4N 92.3W 9.7N 98.5W 8.7N 105.1W 7.7N 112.9W
BAMD 12.3N 94.3W 14.0N 100.4W 16.3N 105.5W 19.2N 107.6W
BAMM 11.4N 92.9W 11.8N 99.1W 12.7N 104.9W 14.1N 109.8W
LBAR 13.8N 91.3W 14.4N 95.1W 14.8N 98.0W 14.9N 99.8W
SHIP 39KTS 36KTS 32KTS 29KTS
DSHP 35KTS 32KTS 28KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 81.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 80.3W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 78.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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#32 Postby RL3AO » Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:57 pm

See you again in June 93L.
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Re:

#33 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:58 pm

RL3AO wrote:See you again in June 93L.


At least sometime in 2008, since I don't see 10 more Invests this season. I think maybe 2 to 4 more.
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#34 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 11, 2007 2:08 pm

Image

Image
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 11, 2007 5:27 pm

Is almost over for 93L.

ABNT20 KNHC 112220
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA TONIGHT OR MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL OCCUR
OVER PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#36 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:48 pm

11/2345 UTC 10.7N 81.4W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

Still hanging on.
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#37 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 11, 2007 8:15 pm

If there's anything at 81.4W, then the nearest convection is almost 150 miles to the west and moving inland into Nicaragua this evening. Bones has something to say about it hang on...

Image
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#38 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Nov 11, 2007 8:20 pm

Yep, looks like it's going, going, gone.

Here's to hoping the season is now officially over.

And here's to hoping that "It's Dead, Jim" image is somehow lost or deleted before next year.

:wink: Kidding.
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#39 Postby Sanibel » Sun Nov 11, 2007 11:41 pm

We've dodged several Caribbean bullets. This one as well from the hook shape...
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Re: INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#40 Postby vegastar » Mon Nov 12, 2007 6:13 am

BNT20 KNHC 120900
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST MON NOV 12 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. DUE TO
ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND
COSTA RICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB
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