Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone GUBA 02P

[Chacor]

Very, very deep convection is this new invest that's just developed.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 6:33pm on Sunday the 11th of November 2007

At the present time there are no significant tropical disturbances in the Coral
Sea.

However computer models indicate that a low over the Solomon Sea near 7.0 S
154.0 E may deepen during the next 1 to 2 days while moving slowly west towards
Papua New Guinea and possibly moving into or redeveloping over the northwest
Coral Sea on Wednesday. At this stage, the probability of the low developing
into a tropical cyclone is low.

[Sanibel]

Good moisture in that one. It is our equivalent of May down there, but the western Pacific basin has more latent heat year round than the land-locked Atlantic.

[Chacor]

Not quite May, as the season officially started November 1.

[HURAKAN]

[Coredesat]

It should be noted that a storm has not been named by TCWC Port Moresby (whose AOR this system is in) since June 2003, when Tropical Cyclone Epi formed.

[Sanibel]

This looks like a cyclone in formation.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: This message is issued daily for the information of interested parties.
Media are NOT required to broadcast this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:30pm on Monday the 12th of November 2007

At the present time there are no significant tropical disturbances in the Coral
Sea.

However computer models indicate that a low over the Solomon Sea near 7.0 S
152.0 E may deepen during the next 1 to 2 days while moving slowly west towards
Papua New Guinea. There is a possibility it will move into or redevelop over the
northwest Coral Sea on Wednesday. At this stage, the probability of the low
developing into a tropical cyclone is low.

Please note that the Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre issues Tropical
Cyclone Outlooks that cover the Gulf of Carpentaria. See
http:/www.bom.gov.au/weather/nt/cyclone/ or to subscribe to this service
call Darwin 08 8920 3820.

[HURAKAN]

[Coredesat]

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0221 UTC 13 November 2007

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC, a Tropical low 1000hPa was located near 10.5S 149.8E moving
west-southwest at about 10 knots. Forecast positions near 11.2S 147.4E at 131200
UTC and near 11.0S 146.6E at 140000 UTC.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the low centre in the southern semicircle.

FORECAST
Expect SE/NE winds increasing to 35/45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Seas
rough to very rough on increasing swells.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
Next warning will be issued by 130700 UTC.
WEATHER BRISBANE

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

13/0230 UTC 10.6S 149.8E T2.5/2.5 96P -- South Pacific Ocean

[Sanibel]

Involved land interaction.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:30pm on Tuesday the 13th of November 2007

A tropical low, 1000hPa was located near 11S 149.5E at 1pm [EST] moving
west-southwest at about 10 knots. A high located over southern Australia is
pushing a firm ridge to the south of the low. Although the low is in a
favourable environment, development to the north side is expected to be slow due
to close proximity to New Guinea land mass.

The probability of the low developing into a tropical cyclone over the next
three days is:

Wednesday: Medium
Thursday: Medium
Friday: Medium

[Squarethecircle]

The convection seems to show that the storm has weakened at least significantly over land, but the organization has much improved. I'd say myself that the Aussies may be underestimating this storm. Oh, and the JTWC have a TCFA out, now.

[Chacor]

Australia (indeed, the SE Pacific nations) uses a different method of classifying TCs, a TC in the Atlantic may not necessarily fit the Australian definition.

[P.K.]

WOAU01 ABRF 131306
IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1306 UTC 13 November 2007

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low with central pressure 999 hPa was centred within 20
nautical miles of 11.2 S 148.2 E moving west southwest at 10 knots. A 1020 hPa
High in the western Tasman Sea extended a slowly weakening ridge along the
Queensland coast.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre in the southern semicircle.

FORECAST
SE/NE winds 34/45 knots developing within 120 nautical miles of the centre in
the southern semicircle during the next 12 to 24 hours. Seas becoming very rough
to high with increasing swells.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 14 November: Within 45 nautical miles of 10.8 south 146.5 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
At 1200 UTC 14 November: Within 90 nautical miles of 10.8 south 145.9 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email
to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through
Land Earth Station Perth 222
Next warning issued by 131900 UTC.
WEATHER BRISBANE

[Squarethecircle]

Australia (indeed, the SE Pacific nations) uses a different method of classifying TCs, a TC in the Atlantic may not necessarily fit the Australian definition.

Would that be more or less conservative?

Hmm... Predicted to intensify? Interesting...

[P.K.]

The BoM definition requires 34kt winds more than half way round the centre lasting for at least six hours as opposed to just maximum winds of 34kts.

Tropical Cyclones are low pressure systems that form over warm tropical waters and have gale force winds (sustained winds of 63 km/h or greater and gusts in excess of 90 km/h) near the centre. Technically they are defined as a non-frontal low pressure system of synoptic scale developing over warm waters having organised convection and a maximum mean wind speed of 34 knots or greater extending more than half-way around near the centre and persisting for at least six hours.

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/about/about-tropical-cyclones.shtml

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 148.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE T-
NUMBERS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 131200Z CIRA INTENSITY ESTIMATE
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAVE REACHED 35 KNOTS. TC 02P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN END OF THIS STEERING RIDGE AND
INDUCE A SLOW POLEWARD TURN AFTER TAU 24. FORWARD MOTION SHOULD
SLOW AS THE STORM NEARS THE RIDGE AXIS, AS REFLECTED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS
THE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES
TO CONSOLIDATE AND CONVECTION REDEVELOP IN A REGION OF MARGINAL
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. HOWEVER, GOOD POLEWARD OUTLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A MORE PRONOUNCED
INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE STEERING
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 130151Z NOV 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT