Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone GUBA 02P

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Re: Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone GUBA 02P

#101 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 17, 2007 1:47 pm

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Tropical Cyclone Guba has moved southwards in the last 12 hours but is expected to turn towards the west and continue moving slowly.

Name:  Tropical Cyclone Guba

Details:
  Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.) Longitude
(decimal deg.) Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm November 17 2 11.9S 147.5E 75
+6hr 4 am November 18 2 12.4S 147.2E 95
+12hr 10 am November 18 2 12.5S 146.7E 110
+18hr 4 pm November 18 1 12.6S 146.5E 130
+24hr 10 pm November 18 1 12.6S 146.2E 165
+36hr 10 am November 19 tropical low 12.1S 146.4E 185
+48hr 10 pm November 19 tropical low 10.3S 147.3E 205


The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 am EST Sunday.

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#102 Postby Squarethecircle » Sat Nov 17, 2007 2:05 pm

Looks really awful now, doesn't it? Very small too.
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#103 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 17, 2007 5:59 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 5:00 am EST on Sunday the 18th of November 2007

At 4 am EST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Guba [Category 2] with central pressure 985
hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 12.0 south, longitude 147.1
east, which is about 405 km east northeast of Lockhart River and 560 km east
southeast of Thursday Island.

The cyclone has moved very slowly west-southwest in the last 12 hours and it is
expected to follow a similar track over the next two days. The cyclone has shown
considerable signs of weakening in the last 24 hours, and a slight weakening
trend may continue in the short term.

The next bulletin will be issued by 11 am EST Sunday.

Image

Guba has been so erratic that Brisbane doesn't know what to do. They have changed the track so many times that I have lost count.
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Re: Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone GUBA 02P

#104 Postby Squarethecircle » Sat Nov 17, 2007 6:27 pm

Guess what? It's got central convection again- and it's strong. This storm must be the smallest one I've ever seen. It's crazy man. Not Crazy Lenny crazy, but crazy.
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Re: Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone GUBA 02P

#105 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 17, 2007 6:34 pm

Image

Image

Katrina, '98:
Image

Guba may want to equal Katrina's achievement but that will be quite difficult.
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#106 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 17, 2007 9:43 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11am EST on Sunday the 18th of November 2007

At 10 am EST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Guba [Category 2] with central pressure
985 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 12.2 south, longitude 146.9
east, which is about 380 km east northeast of Lockhart River and 405 km north
northeast of Cooktown.

The cyclone has moved slowly southwest in the last 12 hours and it is expected
to continue to move slowly, but in a more westerly direction over the next two
days. The cyclone has shown considerable signs of weakening in the last 24
hours, but is not likely to weaken any further at this stage.


The next bulletin will be issued by 5 pm EST Sunday
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Re: Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone GUBA 02P

#107 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:39 am

Crazy, crazy storm... When will he learn that he can't do this kind of thing? Shame, shame!
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#108 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:35 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 2300 EST on Sunday the 18th of November 2007

At 10 pm EST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Guba [Category 1] with central pressure
995 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 12.8 south, longitude 146.2
which is about 270 km east of Lockhart River and 310 km north northeast of
Cooktown.

The cyclone has moved slowly southwest but is expected to move in a more west
then northwest direction overthe next 24 hours.

The next bulletin will be issued by 5 am EST Monday

Image

Image
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#109 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:51 am

:uarrow: Haha! That's the opposite of the JTWC forecast! Nobody has any idea what's going on. :lol:
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Re:

#110 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 18, 2007 10:09 am

Squarethecircle wrote::uarrow: Haha! That's the opposite of the JTWC forecast! Nobody has any idea what's going on. :lol:


Image

They now agree!
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Re: Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone GUBA 02P

#111 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Nov 18, 2007 10:12 am

Wow, I'm certainly lagging behind on this storm :wink: .
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#112 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 18, 2007 3:00 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 5:00 am EST on Monday the 19th of November 2007

At 4 am EST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Guba [Category 1] with central pressure 995
hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 12.6 south, longitude 146.2
which is about 255 km east of Lockhart River.

Tropical Cyclone Guba has recently adopted a slow northwest track, and a similar
motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours. Guba remains a minimal
category 1 cyclone, and little change in intensity is expected.

The next bulletin will be issued by 11 am EST Monday.
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#113 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Nov 18, 2007 3:08 pm

It doesn't even look tropical anymore, does it?
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#114 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 18, 2007 3:12 pm

Image

Image

If you ask me, it looks better now.
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#115 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Nov 18, 2007 3:18 pm

Kind of, but you can't even really discern the center anymore; and the blobs of convection are certainly unhelpful in that endeavor.
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Re: Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone GUBA 02P

#116 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:39 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters servicing the area from Thursday
Island to Cape Melville ARE REQUESTED TO USE the Standard Emergency Warning
Signal.

TOP PRIORITY - FLASH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE 11
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:21am on Monday the 19th of November 2007

A FLASH Tropical Cyclone WARNING has been declared for the coastal and island
communities between Thursday Island to Cape Melville, and extending over the
remainder of Cape York Peninsula in areas north of Weipa. A tropical Cyclone
WATCH has been declared for the remainder of Cape York Peninsula between Weipa
and Cape Keerweer.

At 9:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Guba Category 1 with central pressure 987
hectopascals was relocated near latitude 12.2 south and longitude 144.7 east
which is 155 kilometres east northeast of Lockhart River.

Tropical Cyclone Guba has intensified in the last few hours and is expected to
continue to intensify and may make landfall on the east coast of Cape York
Peninsula as early as tonight.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Guba Category 1, for 9:00 am EST
Central Pressure : 987 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 50 kilometres of
: latitude 12.2 degrees south
: longitude 144.7 degrees east
: which is 155 kilometres east northeast of Lockhart River
Recent Movement : west northwest at 12 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 120 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Thursday Island are specifically
warned that a dangerous storm tide could occur should the cyclone cross the
coast. The sea would rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide,
with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow
instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the
authorities.

People between Thursday Island and Cape Melville should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially securing boats and property before tonight.

The next tropical cyclone warning will be issued by 2pm EST.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

Image
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#117 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:45 pm

Intensifying, is he then? Looks like Guba will surprise us again...
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Re: Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone GUBA 02P

#118 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 18, 2007 10:23 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:1:24:08S133E900:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 0245 UTC 19 NOVEMBER 2007

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 2100 UTC Tropical Cyclone Guba was centred within 30 nautical miles of 12.2 S
144.7 E, moving west northwest at 6 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in the southern semicircle, and within 30
nautical miles in the northern semicircle.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 45 knots near the centre, increasing to 55 knots within 6-12
hours.
Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre in the southern
semicircle, and within 30 nautical miles in the northern semicircle. Rough to
very rough seas and moderate swell.

At 0900 UTC 19 November: Within 60 nautical miles of 11.9 S 143.6 E.
Central pressure 980 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.
At 2100 UTC 19 November: Within 90 nautical miles of 11.4 S 142.5 E.
Central pressure 985 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3 hourly weather reports.

The next warning will be issued by 0730 UTC 19 November 2007.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Image

Image

This is what I call "a difference in professional opinion!!"
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#119 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:04 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 8:15pm on Monday the 19th of November 2007

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Torres
Strait Islands to Lockhart River, and extending west to areas north of Mapoon.

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal and island communities between Coen and Lockhart
River has been cancelled. The Cyclone WARNING is also cancelled for inland and
west coast areas south of Mapoon.

The Cyclone WATCH for areas south of Weipa is also cancelled.

At 7:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Guba Category 1 with central pressure 990
hectopascals was centred near latitude 11.0 south and longitude 144.6 east which
is 255 kilometres east of Horn Island and 250 kilometres north northeast of
Lockhart River. The cyclone is moving north northwest at 8 km/h.

TROPICAL CYCLONE Guba, CATEGORY 1, with gusts up to 100 km/h may intensify
overnight and is expected to approach the northern tip of Cape York Peninsula
tomorrow morning.

GALES are expected to develop between Thursday Island and Lockhart River around
sunrise on Tuesday. GALES may extend further west across Cape York Peninsula
during Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Guba Category 1, for 7:00 pm EST
Central Pressure : 990 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 75 kilometres of
: latitude 11.0 degrees south
: longitude 144.6 degrees east
: which is 255 kilometres east of Horn Island
: and 250 kilometres north northeast of Lockhart River
Recent Movement : north northwest at 8 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour

People between Thursday Island and Lockhart River, including the Torres Strait
Islands, should take precautions and listen to the next advice. If you are
unsure about precautions to be taken, information is available from your local
government or local State Emergency Service.

The next tropical cyclone warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EST.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly
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#120 Postby Squarethecircle » Mon Nov 19, 2007 7:59 am

I'm pretty sure the JWC is going to have to retract their final warning; not even sure why they issued it, because this thing will probably hold on at depression strength at least a little bit.
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