Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone GUBA 02P

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Australian region: Tropical Low (JTWC: TC 02P)

#41 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Nov 13, 2007 8:21 pm

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:17am on Wednesday the 14th of November 2007

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities from
Thursday Is to Cape Flattery.

At 10:00 am EST a Tropical Low with central pressure 997 hectopascals was
centred near latitude 11.2 south and longitude 147.1 east which is 440
kilometres east northeast of Lockhart River.

The low is moving west-southwest at 8 kilometres per hour. The system is
expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Gales are not expected to affect coastal communities in the next 24 hours, but
may develop within 48 hours.


Details of Tropical Low for 10:00 am EST
Central Pressure : 997 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 55 kilometres of
: latitude 11.2 degrees south
: longitude 147.1 degrees east
: which is 440 kilometres east northeast of Lockhart River

Recent Movement : west-southwest 8 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 85 kilometres per hour [and INTENSIFYING]

People between Thursday Island and Cape Flattery should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure
about the actions to be taken, information is available from your local
government or local State Emergency Service.
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST.
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#42 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 13, 2007 8:22 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0118 UTC 14 November 2007

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low with central pressure 997 hPa was centred within 30
nautical miles of 11.2 S 147.1 E moving west-southwest at 5 knots.

AREA AFFECTED

FORECAST
Winds 34/45 knots developing within 120 nautical miles of the centre during the
next 12 to 24 hours. Seas rising very rough to high with increasing swells.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 14 November: Within 60 nautical miles of 11.6 south 146.2 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
At 0000 UTC 15 November: Within 70 nautical miles of 11.8 south 146.2 east
Central pressure 975 hPa.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 14 November 2007.
WEATHER BRISBANE
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#43 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 13, 2007 10:21 pm

The BOM sure has weird terms. Tropical low would be a tropical depression (or weak tropical storm) in our vocabulary.
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Re: Australian region: Tropical Low (JTWC: TC 02P)

#44 Postby RattleMan » Tue Nov 13, 2007 10:33 pm

Once again, http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQP0005.txt is unarchivable because of the ".pl?" in the URL. Does Twister have a file for this one? I can't find anything...
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#45 Postby Chacor » Tue Nov 13, 2007 10:42 pm

First Technical Summary of the season. Talk about rapid intensification! 60 kts in 24 hours.

332
AXAU21 ABRF 140121
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0120 UTC 14/11/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Tropical low
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.2S
Longitude: 147.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west-soutwest [255 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 14/1200: 11.6S 146.2E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 993
+24: 15/0000: 11.8S 146.2E: 070 [130]: 060 [110]: 975
+36: 15/1200: 12.3S 146.7E: 080 [150]: 060 [110]: 975
+48: 16/0000: 12.6S 147.3E: 090 [165]: 065 [120]: 970
+60: 16/1200: 12.6S 147.6E: 100 [185]: 065 [120]: 970
+72: 17/0000: 12.6S 147.4E: 120 [220]: 065 [120]: 970
REMARKS:
Centre fix based on MTSAT IR and Vis imagery, and 2125UTC SSMI pass. Dvorak
based on curved band. Cycling convection continues to slowly organise near the
centre. System remains in favourable location under an upper level outflow,
featuring weak vertical shear, and is therefore expected to develop further in
the short to mid term.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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Re: Australian region: Tropical Low (JTWC: TC 02P)

#46 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 13, 2007 10:59 pm

Image
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#47 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 13, 2007 11:08 pm

Wow, they are now forecasting an Cat 3 on the Aussie scale now (which would be a strong 1 or weak 2 for us).
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#48 Postby Chacor » Tue Nov 13, 2007 11:46 pm

IDQ20008
SECURITE
1 UPDATED
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0417 UTC 14 November 2007

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0300 UTC Tropical Cyclone Guba with central pressure 995 hPa was centred
within 30 nautical miles of 10.7 S 146.7 E moving west at 3 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
within 100 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 35 knots within 100 nautical miles of the centre, expected to
increase to 35/45 knots during the next 12 to 24 hours. Seas rising very rough
to high with increasing swells.

Forecast positions
At 1500 UTC 14 November: Within 50 nautical miles of 11.1 south 146.0 east
Central pressure 985 hPa.
At 0300 UTC 15 November: Within 70 nautical miles of 11.3 south 146.1 east
Central pressure 975 hPa.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 14 November 2007.
WEATHER BRISBANE
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#49 Postby Chacor » Tue Nov 13, 2007 11:48 pm

Guba is the first name from the Port Moresby name list to be used since 2003.
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#50 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 14, 2007 12:42 am

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2014NOV20 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 11:17:20 S Lon : 146:32:34 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 984.0mb/ 55.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -68.6C Cloud Region Temp : -64.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Re: Australian region: Tropical Cyclone Guba (02P)

#51 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 14, 2007 6:04 am

Image
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Re: Australian region: Tropical Cyclone Guba (02P)

#52 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 14, 2007 7:43 am

Image

Image

Almost stationary over the past few hours.
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#53 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 14, 2007 8:14 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
message.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:02pm on Wednesday the 14th of November 2007

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Thursday Is
to Cape Flattery.

At 10:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Guba, Category 1, with central pressure 993
hectopascals was centred near latitude 10.8 south and longitude 146.1 east which
is 370 kilometres northeast of Lockhart River.

The cyclone is moving west at 6 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Guba is expected to intensify over the next day or two while
remaining slow moving over the north-west Coral Sea.

Gales are not expected to affect coastal communities in the next 24 hours, but
may develop within 48 hours.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Guba Category 1, for 10:00 pm EST
Central Pressure : 993 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 75 kilometres of
: latitude 10.8 degrees south
: longitude 146.1 degrees east
: which is 370 kilometres northeast of Lockhart River
Recent Movement : west at 6 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 95 kilometres per hour

People between Thursday Island and Cape Flattery should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about
the actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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Re: Australian region/SWPac: Tropical Cyclone Guba (02P)

#54 Postby Sanibel » Wed Nov 14, 2007 10:21 am

Land interaction took its toll on structure.
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Re: Australian region/SWPac: Tropical Cyclone Guba (02P)

#55 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 14, 2007 10:33 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2014NOV20 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 10:36:05 S Lon : 146:07:55 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 984.0mb/ 55.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -65.4C Cloud Region Temp : -56.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
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#56 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 15, 2007 6:29 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
message.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:30pm on Thursday the 15th of November 2007

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Thursday
Island to Cape Flattery.

At 4:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Guba Category 1 with central pressure 990
hectopascals was centred near latitude 10.5 south and longitude 146.1 east which
is 395 kilometres northeast of Lockhart River.

The cyclone has moved east southeast at 4 kilometres per hour recently, and a
slow, generally southerly drift is expected tonight.

Tropical Cyclone Guba is expected to slowly intensify over the next day or two
while remaining over the northwest Coral Sea.

Gales are not expected to affect coastal communities in the next 24 hours, but
may develop within 48 hours.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Guba Category 1, for 4:00 pm EST
Central Pressure : 990 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 75 kilometres of
: latitude 10.5 degrees south
: longitude 146.1 degrees east
: which is 395 kilometres northeast of Lockhart River
Recent Movement : east southeast at 4 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour

People between Thursday Island and Cape Flattery should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about
the actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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Re: Australian region/SWPac: Tropical Cyclone Guba (02P)

#57 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 15, 2007 6:40 am

Image

Image

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2015NOV20 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 10:57:25 S Lon : 145:43:10 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 986.4mb/ 57.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.0mb

Center Temp : -58.0C Cloud Region Temp : -62.5C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#58 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 15, 2007 10:06 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
message.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:59pm on Thursday the 15th of November 2007

The Cyclone WATCH for coastal and island communities between Thursday Island and
Cape Flattery has been cancelled.

At 10:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Guba Category 1 with central pressure 990
hectopascals was centred near latitude 10.8 south and longitude 146.0 east which
is 365 kilometres northeast of Lockhart River.

The cyclone has moved only slowly in the past 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Guba is expected to remain slow moving, drifting to the south
for the next 2 days.

Gales are not expected to affect coastal communities in the next 48 hours.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Guba Category 1, for 10:00 pm EST
Central Pressure : 990 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 75 kilometres of
: latitude 10.8 degrees south
: longitude 146.0 degrees east
: which is 365 kilometres northeast of Lockhart River
Recent Movement : south at 4 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour


The next Tropical Cyclone information bulletin will be issued for the system at
5 am Friday.


This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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Re: Australian region/SWPac: Tropical Cyclone Guba (02P)

#59 Postby Sanibel » Thu Nov 15, 2007 10:44 am

It is reacting to that favorable synoptic they were talking about.
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Re: 02P - models thread

#60 Postby hcane27 » Thu Nov 15, 2007 3:17 pm

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