SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression TWO (ex-ARIEL)

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SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression TWO (ex-ARIEL)

#1 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 12, 2007 9:25 am

UPDATED
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 6:11pm WDT on Monday the 12th of November 2007
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

Tropical Low
Location :near 4S 93E
southwest of Sumatra, approximately 1000 kilometres north
northwest of the Cocos Islands.
Central Pressure :1004hPa
Recent movement :slowly west southwest

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Tuesday : low
Wednesday : low
Thursday : low

REMARKS - Most likely movement of the low is towards the southwest or west
southwest. The system is likely to persist as a weak tropical low over the next
three days but conditions are not favourable for development into a tropical
cyclone within the next three days.

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

Image
Last edited by Chacor on Sat Nov 17, 2007 6:38 am, edited 7 times in total.
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Coredesat

#2 Postby Coredesat » Mon Nov 12, 2007 10:55 am

Dangit, Chacor, you beat me to this. :P

This is in Jakarta's area, so if there's a name list, they might want to announce it pretty soon whether this remains in the area or not.
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#3 Postby Chacor » Tue Nov 13, 2007 12:15 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:45pm WDT on Tuesday the 13th of November 2007
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

Tropical Low at noon WDT
Location :near 5.4S 93E
southwest of Sumatra, approximately 900 kilometres north
northwest of the Cocos Islands.
Central Pressure :1002hPa
Recent movement :slowly southwest

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Wednesday : high
Thursday : high
Friday : high

REMARKS - The low has shown some recent indications of development which is
expected to continue given that favourable conditions are expected in the next
day or so. While the low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone
intensity today [Tuesday], there is now a high chance of cyclone intensity being
reached on Wednesday and the following two days. The most likely movement of the
low is towards the southwest.
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Re: Australian region: INVEST 97S

#4 Postby RattleMan » Tue Nov 13, 2007 12:44 am

Is there another location other than http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW10900.txt from which to get these advisories? The ".pl?" screws up my archiving program and WebCite. I tried locating it via Twister, but to no luck.
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#5 Postby Chacor » Tue Nov 13, 2007 8:05 am

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#6 Postby Chacor » Tue Nov 13, 2007 11:33 am

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:06S092E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1300UTC 13 NOVEMBER 2007

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Low located within 40 nautical miles of
latitude five decimal nine south [5.9S]
longitude ninety two decimal two east [92.2E]
Recent movement : southwest at 7 knots.
Maximum winds : 20 knots near centre.
Central pressure: 1002 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre in southern quadrants.



FORECAST
Low may develop in the next 12 to 18 hours causing NE/SE winds 30/40 knots in
southern quadrants, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.


At 0000 UTC 14 November: Within 45 nautical miles of 6.9 south 91.2 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots.
At 1200 UTC 14 November: Within 100 nautical miles of 7.9 south 90.2 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots.

Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 13 November 2007.


WEATHER PERTH
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 13, 2007 3:55 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1900UTC 13 NOVEMBER 2007

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Low located within 40 nautical miles of
latitude six decimal four south [6.4S]
longitude ninety one decimal six east [91.6E]
Recent movement : southwest at 7 knots.
Maximum winds : 25 knots near centre.
Central pressure: 1000 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre in southern quadrants.



FORECAST
Low may develop in the next 6 to 12 hours causing NE/SE winds 30/40 knots in
southern quadrants, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.


At 0600 UTC 14 November: Within 45 nautical miles of 7.1 south 90.6 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots.
At 1800 UTC 14 November: Within 100 nautical miles of 7.8 south 89.7 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots.

Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 14 November 2007.


WEATHER PERTH
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 13, 2007 6:48 pm

13/2030 UTC 7.5S 90.7E T2.0/2.0 97S -- South Indian Ocean
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#9 Postby Coredesat » Tue Nov 13, 2007 8:15 pm

WTAU05 APRF 140110
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:08S092E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0109UTC 14 NOVEMBER 2007

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Low located within 30 nautical miles of
latitude seven decimal eight south [7.8S]
longitude ninety two decimal two east [92.2E]
Recent movement : south southwest at 9 knots.
Maximum winds : 30 knots near centre.
Central pressure: 996 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre extending to 120 nautical miles in
southern quadrants.



FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 18 hours causing
clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.


At 1200 UTC 14 November: Within 50 nautical miles of 9.0 south 91.3 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots.
At 0000 UTC 15 November: Within 90 nautical miles of 9.6 south 90.2 east
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots.

Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 14 November 2007.


WEATHER PERTH
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#10 Postby Chacor » Tue Nov 13, 2007 9:46 pm

I have a sneaky feeling Perth will name this, and not Jakarta.
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Re:

#11 Postby Coredesat » Tue Nov 13, 2007 10:00 pm

Chacor wrote:I have a sneaky feeling Perth will name this, and not Jakarta.


I bet you're right, but we'll see what happens in "6 to 18 hours". :P
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 13, 2007 11:26 pm

14/0230 UTC 7.9S 91.8E T2.5/2.5 97S -- South Indian Ocean

Continues to organize.
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Re:

#13 Postby WindRunner » Wed Nov 14, 2007 2:14 am

Chacor wrote:I have a sneaky feeling Perth will name this, and not Jakarta.


I wouldn't be surprised to see Mauritius name it . . .
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Re: Australian region: INVEST 97S

#14 Postby P.K. » Wed Nov 14, 2007 8:07 am

WTAU05 APRF 141307
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:9S91E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1306UTC 14 NOVEMBER 2007

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone LEE located within 30 nautical miles of
latitude nine decimal one south [9.1S]
longitude ninety one decimal four east [91.4E]
Recent movement : south southwest at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Sustained winds to 35 knots near centre increasing to 55 knots by 1200UTC 15
November 2007.

Within 40 nautical miles of centre after 150600UTC : wind above 48 knots with
very rough to high seas and moderate swell.

Within 150 nautical miles of centre : winds above 34 knots with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.


At 0000 UTC 15 November: Within 50 nautical miles of 10.1 south 90.6 east
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots.
At 1200 UTC 15 November: Within 80 nautical miles of 10.8 south 89.4 east
Central pressure 974 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots.

Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 14 November 2007.


WEATHER PERTH
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#15 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 14, 2007 8:08 am

624
WTAU05 APRF 141307
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:9S91E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1306UTC 14 NOVEMBER 2007

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone LEE located within 30 nautical miles of
latitude nine decimal one south [9.1S]
longitude ninety one decimal four east [91.4E]
Recent movement : south southwest at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Sustained winds to 35 knots near centre increasing to 55 knots by 1200UTC 15
November 2007.

Within 40 nautical miles of centre after 150600UTC : wind above 48 knots with
very rough to high seas and moderate swell.

Within 150 nautical miles of centre : winds above 34 knots with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.


At 0000 UTC 15 November: Within 50 nautical miles of 10.1 south 90.6 east
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots.
At 1200 UTC 15 November: Within 80 nautical miles of 10.8 south 89.4 east
Central pressure 974 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots.

Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 14 November 2007.


WEATHER PERTH
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Re:

#16 Postby P.K. » Wed Nov 14, 2007 8:13 am

Chacor wrote:I have a sneaky feeling Perth will name this, and not Jakarta.


Which they have just done despite it not being in their AOR. Has anyone been able to get into the TCWC Jakarta site the last couple of days? The page that would have this sort of thing on will not load for me.
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#17 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 14, 2007 8:27 am

Image

Should be renamed soon.
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#18 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 14, 2007 8:29 am

AXAU01 APRF 141326
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1326 UTC 14/11/2007
Tropical Cyclone: LEE
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 9.1S
Longitude: 91.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [209 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0./D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 15/0000: 10.1S 90.6E: 050 [095]: 045 [085]: 986
+24: 15/1200: 10.8S 89.4E: 080 [150]: 055 [100]: 974
+36: 16/0000: 10.9S 87.9E: 100 [185]: 055 [100]: 974
+48: 16/1200: 11.2S 86.8E: 130 [240]: 055 [100]: 974
+60: 17/0000: 11.3S 85.7E: 150 [280]: 055 [100]: 974
+72: 17/1200: 11.1S 85.5E: 180 [335]: 055 [100]: 974
REMARKS:
The system has developed in curvature during the last 12 hours in an environment
of low shear and favourable upper level outflow to the south. While convection
has taken some time to become organised, a ship to the south of the system has
reported 35 knots suggesting TC intensity has been reached. Dvorak based on 0.6
wrap.
Further development is expected in the next 24 hours with a southwesterly motion
likely to continue.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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#19 Postby Coredesat » Wed Nov 14, 2007 10:30 am

At this point I'm wondering if TCWC Jakarta is even operational at the moment. The system should have been given one of its (unannounced) names.
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#20 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 14, 2007 11:30 am

TCFA issued by JTWC.

WTXS21 PGTW 141630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3S 91.9E TO 10.5S 88.6E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
141430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.7S
91.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5S 91.2E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 91.6E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERI-
PHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALSO EVIDENT
IN A 141109Z SSMI PASS. RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM VARIOUS REPORT-
ING AGENCIES AND SATELLITE WIND-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 06
TO 12 HOURS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151630Z.
//
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