SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression TWO (ex-ARIEL)

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#41 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 15, 2007 6:48 pm

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There is Ariel to the right and Invest 98S to the left.
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#42 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 15, 2007 10:29 pm

One note: this is the first hurricane-strength storm this season in the Southern Hemisphere.
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Re: SE Indian Ocean: Severe Tropical Storm ARIEL 02R (ex. LEE)

#43 Postby Squarethecircle » Fri Nov 16, 2007 6:40 am

When was the last time there was a hurricane strength in the Southern Hemisphere before the end of November?
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#44 Postby Chacor » Fri Nov 16, 2007 6:46 am

This hasn't reached tropical cyclone strength (64 kt) from either TCWC Perth or RSMC La Réunion. On the other hand, Guba has reached 70 kts from TCWC Brisbane/Port Moresby.
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Re: SE Indian Ocean: Severe Tropical Storm ARIEL 02R (ex. LEE)

#45 Postby Squarethecircle » Fri Nov 16, 2007 7:59 am

An interesting lag, to be sure. It looks less intense than its counterpart, Guba, which I believe is around 65-75 knots. I'd guess this is around 65 knots or so, maybe 60.
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Re: SE Indian Ocean: Severe Tropical Storm ARIEL 02R (ex. LEE)

#46 Postby P.K. » Fri Nov 16, 2007 8:11 am

WTIO30 FMEE 161227

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/2/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ARIEL EX-LEE)

2.A POSITION 2007/11/16 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 87.8E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 110
50 KT NE: 025 SE: 025 SO: 025 NO: 025

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/17 00 UTC: 11.7S/86.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2007/11/17 12 UTC: 11.9S/85.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2007/11/18 00 UTC: 12.4S/85.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2007/11/18 12 UTC: 12.6S/84.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2007/11/19 00 UTC: 12.8S/84.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2007/11/19 12 UTC: 12.9S/83.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 CI = 3.5

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER NORTHWEST OF THE
MAIN CONVECTION SHOWING THAT ARIEL EX-LEE IS SUFFERING FROM
NORTHNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. T NUMBER HAS BEEN LOWERED ACCORDINGLY.

TRACK HAS BEEN DUE WEST DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARDS. AT DAY 2, STEERING FLUX MAY TAKE A MORE
SOUTHWARDS COMPONENT. AT DAY 3, A LITTLE STRONGER RIDGE SHOULD TAKE THE
TRACK BACK TO THE WEST. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT
THIS RANGE AS SOME
MODEL DEVELOPS A LOW NEAR THE CHAGOS AND INTERACT IT WITH ARIEL EX-LEE.
AT THIS TIME THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNREALISTIC ...

THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO HIGH LEVEL STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF 15S BUT
MOST GLOBAL MODEL LESSEN THE SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER DAY 1.
FOR THIS ADVISORY, FORECAST INTENSITY IS LOWERED AND KEPT TO TROPICAL
STORM STATUS.
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#47 Postby Chacor » Fri Nov 16, 2007 7:37 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 170034

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/2/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ARIEL EX-LEE)

2.A POSITION 2007/11/17 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5S / 87.3E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 160 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 090

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/17 12 UTC: 11.6S/86.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2007/11/18 00 UTC: 11.9S/86.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2007/11/18 12 UTC: 12.4S/86.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2007/11/19 00 UTC: 12.9S/85.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/11/19 12 UTC: 12.7S/84.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/11/20 00 UTC: 12.5S/83.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0- AND CI=3.0
ARIEL IS QUASI-STATIONNARY SINCE 1800UTC AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN
RELOCATED MORE NORTHERN THANKS TO NEW AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY (METOP
1545Z, NOAA18 1928Z AND AQUA 1954Z).
SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING GRADUALLY UNDERGOING A RATHER STRONG
NOTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
LAST INFRARED METEOSAT7 IMAGERY (FROM 2230Z TO 0000Z) SHOWS A CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MORE CLOSE TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS AND MOST OF AVAILABLE
NWP MODELS FORECAST SLACKENING ACTUAL CONSTRAINTS, SYSTEM COULD ALSO
BEGIN A NEW PHASIS OF INTENSIFICATION.
THERE IS A STRONG DUBIOUNESS RELATED TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND ALSO
INTENSITY DUE TO ANOTHER CYCLOGENESIS VERY CLOSE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHAGOS.
ARIEL IS HOWEVER EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY GLOBALLY
SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN RECURVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS UNDERGOING REBUILDING
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON CONSENSUS.

That new cyclone is presumably 98S.
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#48 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 16, 2007 10:29 pm

Image

Latest.
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#49 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 17, 2007 1:52 am

628
WTIO30 FMEE 170621

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/2/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ARIEL)

2.A POSITION 2007/11/17 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 87.5E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 220 SO: 200 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/17 18 UTC: 12.0S/87.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2007/11/18 06 UTC: 12.3S/86.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/11/18 18 UTC: 12.6S/86.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2007/11/19 06 UTC: 12.8S/85.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
60H: 2007/11/19 18 UTC: 12.7S/85.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
72H: 2007/11/20 06 UTC: 12.4S/84.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.5
ARIEL IS QUASI-STATIONNARY SINCE 1800UTC AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN
RELOCATED EASTWARDS THIS MORNING THANKS TO NEW AVAILABLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND REINTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO BE UNLIKELY AT
THIS STAGE..
IT SHOULD CONTINU TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
(ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE) BEFORE ACCELERATING A LITTLE BIT WESTWARDS
AS IT DISSIPATE AS A REMNANT LOW.


.
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Re: SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression TWO (ex-ARIEL)

#50 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 17, 2007 5:43 am

Image

Ex. Ariel is located in the SE Indian Ocean, not SW!
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#51 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 17, 2007 6:38 am

NO. Southwest Indian Ocean is RSMC La Réunion's area, WEST OF NINETY DEGREES EAST. Please know what you're talking about before making changes.
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#52 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 17, 2007 6:49 am

That Reunion is located in the SW Indian Ocean is completely different to the fact that the ex. Ariel is located in the SE Indian Ocean. Just look at the map above.

If there is a hurricane in the Eastern Atlantic, geographically is not correct to say that it's in the Western Atlantic because there is where the NHC is located.
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Re:

#53 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 17, 2007 7:11 am

HURAKAN wrote:That Reunion is located in the SW Indian Ocean is completely different to the fact that the ex. Ariel is located in the SE Indian Ocean. Just look at the map above.

If there is a hurricane in the Eastern Atlantic, geographically is not correct to say that it's in the Western Atlantic because there is where the NHC is located.


It has nothing to do with where RSMC La Réunion is located. I said that this region refers to Réunion's area of responsibility, which is west of 90E.

WMO definitions.

The whole basin is called the South-West Indian Ocean.

Australia and Fiji's area is the South Pacific and South-East Indian Ocean.

You can find this in the various tropical cyclone operational plans:

Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South-West Indian Ocean (TCP12-2006) and Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South Pacific and the South-East Indian Ocean (TCP24-2006).
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Re: SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression TWO (ex-ARIEL)

#54 Postby P.K. » Sat Nov 17, 2007 7:39 am

Chacor is correct, see http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/tc/swi/index.html and http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/tc/au/.

WTIO30 FMEE 171235

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/2/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ARIEL)

2.A POSITION 2007/11/17 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 87.0E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 220 SO: 200 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/18 00 UTC: 12.0S/85.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/11/18 12 UTC: 12.1S/84.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
36H: 2007/11/19 00 UTC: 11.5S/82.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2007/11/19 12 UTC: 11.0S/80.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
60H: 2007/11/20 00 UTC: 10.6S/79.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
72H: 2007/11/20 12 UTC: DISSIPATED.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.5-
SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOW THAT"EX ARIEL" HAS BEGUN A
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS
TRACK. CENTER REMAINS ILL-DEFINED AND DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE.INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 30 KT BUT FOR SURE IT IS ON A WEAKENING TREND ...
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM NEAR THE CHAGOS SEEMS TO INHIBIT
RE-DEVELOPMENT
OF "EX ARIEL". AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANISED, IT WILL BE
STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN
THE CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM NEAR THE CHAGOS. ACCORDINGLY PRESENT
GUIDANCE IS FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.=
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#55 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 17, 2007 10:43 am

They don't officially keep names in this basin when they weaken to a tropical depression, interesting...
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Re:

#56 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 17, 2007 10:44 am

CrazyC83 wrote:They don't officially keep names in this basin when they weaken to a tropical depression, interesting...


They don't in the NW Pacific (JMA, at least) either.
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Re: SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression TWO (ex-ARIEL)

#57 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 17, 2007 8:58 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2018NOV20 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 11:59:45 S Lon : 86:54:59 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 984.5mb/ 59.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.7mb

Center Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -75.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
_________________________________________________________

Coming back!

Image
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Re: SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression TWO (ex-ARIEL)

#58 Postby Squarethecircle » Sat Nov 17, 2007 8:59 pm

My my, does Ariel wish to surprise us, then?
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#59 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 17, 2007 9:13 pm

:uarrow:

Image

So far Meteo France doesn't think it will make a comeback.
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#60 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 17, 2007 9:15 pm

Image

You can see here the increase in convection over the past hours.
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