SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression TWO (ex-ARIEL)

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Squarethecircle
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#61 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:27 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

You can see here the increase in convection over the past hours.


It's all died off now, though.
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Re: SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression TWO (ex-ARIEL)

#62 Postby P.K. » Sun Nov 18, 2007 1:29 pm

Last advisory issued.

WTIO20 FMEE 181827 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/11/2007
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/11/2007 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 (EX-ARIEL) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5S / 87.8E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO MORE THAN 1000 MN OF
THE
CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT UP TO THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION N3
DEEPENING EAST OF CHAGOS ISLANDS.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS AROUND THE
CENTER, REACHING VERY LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT IN THE
SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2007/11/19 AT 06 UTC:
12.6S / 88.3E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H, VALID 2007/11/19 AT 18 UTC:
13.0S / 88.5E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
**** CORRECTIVE ISSUED DUE TO A FALSE POSITION FOR THE H+12
FORECASTED
ONE ****
STRONG WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE BY GRADIENT
EFFECT
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION BUT IT
REMAINS CLOSELY MONITORED (MARINE BULLETIN FQIO25 FMEE AND BULLETIN
FOR
CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AWIO20 FMEE)=
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Re: SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression TWO (ex-ARIEL)

#63 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 18, 2007 4:07 pm

Image

Image
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Re: SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression TWO (ex-ARIEL)

#64 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:20 pm

:uarrow: Probably just one final spark from a dying storm.
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Re: SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression TWO (ex-ARIEL)

#65 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:49 pm

Image

Image

Really dead :?: :?: :?:
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#66 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:54 pm

Stick a fork in it, it's done...
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#67 Postby Squarethecircle » Mon Nov 19, 2007 2:53 pm

Random blobs of convection are not tropical storms...
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#68 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 19, 2007 11:01 pm

20/0230 UTC 13.8S 89.4E T2.5/2.5 LEE-ARIEL -- South Indian Ocean
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#69 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 20, 2007 12:26 pm

Image

Still fighting.

Image

A might be a depression, but it looks to have a LLC and convection has been solid over the past 12 to 24 hours.
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Re: SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression TWO (ex-ARIEL)

#70 Postby P.K. » Thu Nov 22, 2007 4:28 pm

For the record this has been mentioned again in a TCWC Perth outlook.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 11:06am WDT on Thursday the 22nd of November 2007
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

Tropical Low [ex-TC Lee-Ariel]
Location :near 12S 90.8E
about 650 kilometres [350 nautical miles] west of Cocos Islands
Central Pressure :1004hPa
Recent movement : slow moving

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Friday : moderate
Saturday : moderate
Sunday : moderate

REMARKS - The low has shown indications of some development overnight and while
guidance suggests it is unlikely to develop further into a tropical cyclone, it
should not be ruled out altogether. The low has drifted to the northeast in the
past 24 hours but may commence a more northwest track and move out of the region
in the next few days.

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more *
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