SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression Three (ex-BONGWE)

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HURAKAN
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Re: Southwest Indian Ocean: Severe Tropical Storm BONGWE

#41 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 20, 2007 12:24 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 NOV 2007 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 12:16:59 S Lon : 74:20:14 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 997.0mb/ 41.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.6mb

Center Temp : -23.8C Cloud Region Temp : -39.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.64 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 12:28:47 S Lon: 75:19:48 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Continues to weaken!
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Re: Southwest Indian Ocean: Severe Tropical Storm BONGWE

#42 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 21, 2007 3:59 pm

Image

Image

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 NOV 2007 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 13:41:48 S Lon : 70:07:35 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 992.8mb/ 47.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Center Temp : -75.7C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

***************************************************
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#43 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 21, 2007 4:04 pm

BULLETIN DU 21 NOVEMBRE A 22H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BONGWE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 987 HPA.
POSITION LE 21 NOVEMBRE A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 13.7 SUD / 70.2 EST
(TREIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES DEUX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1730 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 14 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 13.8S/67.5E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 13.4S/65.4E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.1S/63.5E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
CE BULLETIN SERA REACTUALISE DEMAIN MATIN VERS 04H30.
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#44 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 21, 2007 7:27 pm

Re-upgraded to STS.
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Re: Southwest Indian Ocean: Severe Tropical Storm BONGWE

#45 Postby P.K. » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:08 am

WTIO30 FMEE 221231

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/3/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGWE)

2.A POSITION 2007/11/22 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0S / 69.8E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 070 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 070
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/23 00 UTC: 14.1S/68.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2007/11/23 12 UTC: 14.2S/67.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2007/11/24 00 UTC: 14.5S/66.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2007/11/24 12 UTC: 14.9S/64.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2007/11/25 00 UTC: 15.3S/63.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2007/11/25 12 UTC: 15.7S/62.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=4.0-
"BONGWE" HAS NEARLLY STALLED SINCE THAT NIGHT, STUCKED BETWEEN STEERING
FLUX FROM THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO HIS NORTH-EAST AND THE ONE FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO HIS SOUTH-WEST.

COOLER SST INDUCE BY THE STALLING POSITION AND PROXIMITY OF A PERSISTENT
AREA OF DRY AIR COULD BE RESPONSIBLE OF THE DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUDS
CONFIGURATION THIS AFTERNOON (CONFIRMED WITH THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF
NOAA18 AT 0856Z)
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL STRONGLY DETERIORATE AT DAY 1 WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH-WEST OF "BONGWE". SO, INTENSITY
SHOULD NOT REACHED TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HEURES AND
STEADY WEAKENING IS FORE
CAST.

"BONGWE" SHOULD SOON TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARDS. AT H+36, A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS.
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#46 Postby Chacor » Fri Nov 23, 2007 1:43 am

WTIO30 FMEE 230636

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/3/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGWE)

2.A POSITION 2007/11/23 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 68.8E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 070 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/23 18 UTC: 13.6S/67.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2007/11/24 06 UTC: 13.5S/65.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/11/24 18 UTC: 13.8S/64.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2007/11/25 06 UTC: 14.2S/62.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
60H: 2007/11/25 18 UTC: 15.0S/61.2E DISSIPATING.
72H: 2007/11/26 06 UTC: 15.8S/59.8E DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 AND CI=3.0

"BONGWE" HAS RE-STARTED TO TRACK WESTNORTHWESTAWARDS. THE SYSTEM
UNDERGOES AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (FRONT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH), AND THE LLCC IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED. IT SHOULD
DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND THE 25 DUE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
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