South China Sea: Tropical Storm Hagibis

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

Re: South China Sea: Typhoon Hagibis

#81 Postby P.K. » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:07 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0724 HAGIBIS (0724)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 11.0N 111.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 11.7N 111.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 241200UTC 12.0N 113.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 251200UTC 13.1N 115.3E 290NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116685
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Typhoon Hagabis in South China Sea : Models Thread

#82 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:11 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#83 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 22, 2007 10:56 am

Image

Getting close to the coast.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#84 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 22, 2007 11:08 am

JMA still thinks it will make a sharp u-turn.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#85 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 22, 2007 12:42 pm

Image

Image

I say right, you say left!
0 likes   

Coredesat

#86 Postby Coredesat » Thu Nov 22, 2007 1:17 pm

The models seem to agree with the JMA:

Image

The GFS also makes the U-turn and has Hagibis stalling out in the South China Sea.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#87 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 23, 2007 11:17 pm

Image

Now they both agree.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27561
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#88 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 24, 2007 11:16 am

Wouldn't such a turn make this get absorbed by Mitag?
0 likes   

HurricaneRobert
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 812
Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm

Re: South China Sea: Typhoon Hagibis

#89 Postby HurricaneRobert » Sat Nov 24, 2007 1:00 pm

Maybe that's why they show it weakening.
0 likes   

Squarethecircle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2165
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
Location: Fairfax, VA

#90 Postby Squarethecircle » Sat Nov 24, 2007 2:09 pm

Aww man, I missed it... This thing looks pretty ravaged now; probably will weaken. It's just not fair, you know. :(
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6526
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario Canada

#91 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Nov 24, 2007 2:48 pm

I didn't know why no one was talking about this when it was slowly moving backwards like a U-turn since I never see that! 8-)

The turn has taken a toll on Hagibis and I wanted to see if they can merge together.
0 likes   

Coredesat

#92 Postby Coredesat » Sat Nov 24, 2007 2:49 pm

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#93 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 24, 2007 8:32 pm

JMA is actually calling for re-intensification and for landfall on western Luzon at 60 kts! JTWC says it'll be a 20 kt depression dissipating by then.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#94 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 24, 2007 9:17 pm

:uarrow: WOW! Talk about different opinions!
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#95 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 24, 2007 9:31 pm

JMA was right the first time with the u-turn when JTWC expected Veitnam landfall, so we'll see who's right this time.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27561
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re:

#96 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 24, 2007 10:33 pm

HURAKAN wrote::uarrow: WOW! Talk about different opinions!


I have never seen such a difference. Looking at the Dvorak numbers and satellite pictures, I think the JTWC is correct for current intensity and the 50 kt (10-min) is overdone.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#97 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 24, 2007 10:42 pm

Image

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2025NOV20 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 11:52:44 N Lon : 112:59:46 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1001.3mb/ 34.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.7mb

Center Temp : +13.1C Cloud Region Temp : -11.9C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.60^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
0 likes   

Squarethecircle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2165
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
Location: Fairfax, VA

#98 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Nov 25, 2007 8:06 am

:uarrow: That seems a lot more likely than 50 knots. Since the shear doesn't appear to want to let up, and even though the South China Sea is known for turning storms into typhoons, it doesn't have nearly the time it needs to reorganize, let alone rapidly intensify. Should be nearly dead by the Philippines.
0 likes   

HurricaneBill
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3421
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA

Re: South China Sea: Typhoon Hagibis

#99 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Nov 25, 2007 10:24 pm

Has the Philippines ever been struck by a "back-door" typhoon?
0 likes   

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5810
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#100 Postby WindRunner » Mon Nov 26, 2007 12:24 am

Well congrats to Jim on an excellent call here . . . four days later and it is doing just that.

Glad to see that the JTWC still gets burned 8-)
0 likes   


Return to “2007”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests