WPAC: Tropical Depression Mitag

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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm Mitag 24w in WPAC: Models Thread

#21 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 20, 2007 5:25 pm

11/20/07 12z EURO

It has a strong typhoon slamming into Luzon.
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 20, 2007 6:54 pm

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Like Hagibis, Mitag is becoming much better organized.
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#23 Postby Squarethecircle » Tue Nov 20, 2007 8:13 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Like Hagibis, Mitag is becoming much better organized.


Yeah, it's interesting to see two storms go through similar life cycles at the same time (must've been amazing for the people seeing Ivan and Joan). The visible seems only somewhat organized, but the convective shows that the storm is looking very good.
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#24 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 20, 2007 9:32 pm

JMA now forecasting a typhoon out of this...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Mitag 0723 (24W)

#25 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 20, 2007 9:45 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2021NOV20 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 14:05:45 N Lon : 133:30:36 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 988.2mb/ 49.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.2 3.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -30.6C Cloud Region Temp : -62.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.71 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.88 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 14:05:24 N Lon: 133:06:36 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Image
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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 21, 2007 12:06 am

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Moving forward.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Mitag 0723 (24W)

#27 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 21, 2007 7:24 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2021NOV20 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 14:22:58 N Lon : 131:22:01 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 982.4mb/ 57.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -81.4C Cloud Region Temp : -76.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Mitag 0723 (24W)

#28 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 21, 2007 7:28 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Mitag 0723 (24W)

#29 Postby P.K. » Wed Nov 21, 2007 8:04 am

Upgraded.

WTPQ21 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0723 MITAG (0723) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 14.5N 131.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 100NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 14.6N 128.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 231200UTC 14.1N 125.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 241200UTC 15.6N 123.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =
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Re: Severe Tropical Storm Mitag 24w in WPAC: Models Thread

#30 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 21, 2007 8:12 am

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Re: WPAC: Severe Tropical Storm Mitag 0723 (24W)

#31 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 21, 2007 10:21 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: Severe Tropical Storm Mitag 0723 (24W)

#32 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 21, 2007 11:14 am

Image

Image

Image
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#33 Postby Squarethecircle » Wed Nov 21, 2007 11:52 am

Ouch, for the Philippines. It's weird seeing them exploding into typhoons at the same time as well.
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Re: WPAC: Severe Tropical Storm Mitag 0723 (24W)

#34 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 21, 2007 1:29 pm

21/1430 UTC 14.3N 131.5E T3.5/3.5 MITAG -- West Pacific Ocean
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#35 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 21, 2007 2:47 pm

Almost a typhoon. JMA forecasting 75 kt (10-min).
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#36 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 21, 2007 3:56 pm

Image

Should be a typhoon soon, if not already.
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#37 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 21, 2007 5:34 pm

JTWC now has it as a typhoon, and forecasting 105 kt at its peak.
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#38 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 21, 2007 6:35 pm

Image

Looking good.
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Re: Severe Tropical Storm Mitag 24w in WPAC: Models Thread

#39 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 21, 2007 6:47 pm

Image
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#40 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 21, 2007 7:26 pm

Image

Not a great forecast.
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