WPAC: Tropical Depression Mitag

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wxmann_91
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#41 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Nov 21, 2007 7:48 pm

Is JTWC not working for anybody else? It seems like it's down or something.
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#42 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 21, 2007 7:49 pm

JTWC is working for me just fine...
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#43 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Nov 21, 2007 8:26 pm

well, that's weird. are you using https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php ?
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#44 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Nov 21, 2007 8:36 pm

Now a typhoon (JMA), as is Hagibis.
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Re:

#45 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 21, 2007 8:59 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:well, that's weird. are you using https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php ?


Don't use the secure server.
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Re: Re:

#46 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Nov 21, 2007 9:10 pm

Chacor wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:well, that's weird. are you using https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php ?


Don't use the secure server.

Hmmm, that's the only link to the JTWC I have in my favorites.
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Re: Re:

#47 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 21, 2007 10:31 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Chacor wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:well, that's weird. are you using https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php ?


Don't use the secure server.

Hmmm, that's the only link to the JTWC I have in my favorites.


Same link, just http and not https.
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Re: Typhoon Mitag in WPAC: Models Thread

#48 Postby hcane27 » Wed Nov 21, 2007 10:52 pm

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#49 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 22, 2007 12:55 am

Image

No question, that's an eye!
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#50 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu Nov 22, 2007 4:24 am

Convection seems to be building solidly around that eye which has started to "pop out" over the last 3 hours. Could this be a monster by daybreak local time?
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Mitag

#51 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu Nov 22, 2007 4:44 am

This is an ominous sign:

Image
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#52 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 22, 2007 5:49 am

Image

Already looking like a WPAC monster.
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Mitag

#53 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 22, 2007 5:51 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2022NOV20 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 14:20:22 N Lon : 128:12:13 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 951.8mb/ 94.8kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.2 5.6 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 32 km

Center Temp : -3.7C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#54 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 22, 2007 5:53 am

Looks more like an empty hole where the eye should be rather than a real eye.
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#55 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 22, 2007 6:06 am

Image

Image

Image

Click on the LOOP and you will see that it's the eye.
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Mitag

#56 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Thu Nov 22, 2007 7:50 am

That south east quadrant looks NASTY.
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Mitag

#57 Postby P.K. » Thu Nov 22, 2007 7:55 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0723 MITAG (0723)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 14.2N 127.7E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 220NM NORTH 130NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 14.3N 125.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 241200UTC 16.1N 124.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 251200UTC 18.1N 121.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
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Re: Typhoon Mitag in WPAC: Models Thread

#58 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:12 am

Image
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#59 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu Nov 22, 2007 9:27 am

That is one screwed up GFS track! Looks like Mitag has just gotta make it to Luzon but is terrified of the mountains!
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Mitag

#60 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 22, 2007 9:46 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2022NOV20 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 14:13:15 N Lon : 127:27:45 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 938.4mb/107.2kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.7 5.9 5.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -40.0C Cloud Region Temp : -75.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Image
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