WPAC: Tropical Depression Mitag

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Chacor
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#61 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 22, 2007 9:53 am

Image
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#62 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 22, 2007 10:54 am

Image

Eye contracting.
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Derek Ortt

#63 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Nov 22, 2007 11:30 am

now, if the other typhoon makes a U turn, how could this cyclone continue to the west without rapidly weakening due to increased shear?
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Re:

#64 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 22, 2007 11:32 am

Derek Ortt wrote:now, if the other typhoon makes a U turn, how could this cyclone continue to the west without rapidly weakening due to increased shear?


JTWC have Hagibis going straight into Vietnam though.
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#65 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 22, 2007 12:02 pm

Could this get all the way to super typhoon status?
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Mitag

#66 Postby P.K. » Thu Nov 22, 2007 1:57 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0723 MITAG (0723)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 14.2N 126.9E GOOD
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 14.6N 125.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 241800UTC 16.1N 123.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 251800UTC 18.5N 120.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Mitag

#67 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Nov 22, 2007 1:57 pm

I saw a model that Mitag could become a Category 4 before landfall. Quite impressive of a storm.
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Mitag

#68 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 22, 2007 2:30 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:I saw a model that Mitag could become a Category 4 before landfall. Quite impressive of a storm.


It definitely looks stronger than a Cat 2...
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#69 Postby stu » Thu Nov 22, 2007 2:34 pm

Ptarmingan,

Can you link the model? I am thinking of making a trip over to intercept Mitag.
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Re:

#70 Postby P.K. » Thu Nov 22, 2007 3:33 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Could this get all the way to super typhoon status?


Only 5m/s short at the moment.

WTPQ20 BABJ 221800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY MITAG 0724 (0723) INITIAL TIME 221800 UTC
00HR 14.1N 127.2E 960HPA 40M/S
30KTS 350KM
50KTS 120KM
P12HR W 10KM/H
P+24HR 14.2N 125.1E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 15.8N 123.6E 940HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 17.4N 122.2E 955HPA 40M/S=
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Re:

#71 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Nov 22, 2007 5:18 pm

stu wrote:Ptarmingan,

Can you link the model? I am thinking of making a trip over to intercept Mitag.


Hi Stu. Here is the model from Weather Underground where I saw it.

Image

If you make the trip to intercept Mitag, I would like to see reports, photos, and videos.
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Re: Re:

#72 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 22, 2007 6:21 pm

P.K. wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Could this get all the way to super typhoon status?


Only 5m/s short at the moment.

WTPQ20 BABJ 221800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY MITAG 0724 (0723) INITIAL TIME 221800 UTC
00HR 14.1N 127.2E 960HPA 40M/S
30KTS 350KM
50KTS 120KM
P12HR W 10KM/H
P+24HR 14.2N 125.1E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 15.8N 123.6E 940HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 17.4N 122.2E 955HPA 40M/S=


Beijing's hardly the RSMC now is it.
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Re: Re:

#73 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 22, 2007 6:21 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
stu wrote:Ptarmingan,

Can you link the model? I am thinking of making a trip over to intercept Mitag.


Hi Stu. Here is the model from Weather Underground where I saw it.

Image

If you make the trip to intercept Mitag, I would like to see reports, photos, and videos.


That's not a model, that's the JTWC's forecast.
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Re: Re:

#74 Postby P.K. » Thu Nov 22, 2007 6:31 pm

Chacor wrote:
Beijing's hardly the RSMC now is it.


I'm well aware of that. :wink:

Anyway here is the latest forecast track image.

Image
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Re: Re:

#75 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Nov 22, 2007 7:02 pm

Chacor wrote:That's not a model, that's the JTWC's forecast.


Aren't forecasts based on models?
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#76 Postby stu » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:04 pm

OK I have just 8 hours before I have to press the go button and go after this storm (Of course I will share images and video to my friends here at S2K if I make the interecpt)

I need to get a handle on the track (dont we all) as it happens, if the forecast track (JTWC) comes to pass, then landfall will be over a mountain region on the East cost where there are NO ROADS !!! I am not going all that way and not being able to get the eye dure to roads.

I could do with some forecast track advise - any one care to offer up a view ??
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Coredesat

Re: Re:

#77 Postby Coredesat » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:08 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
Chacor wrote:That's not a model, that's the JTWC's forecast.


Aren't forecasts based on models?


Yes, but that graphic is not one.
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#78 Postby stu » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:23 pm

Back on topic - latest guidence now suggest solid CAT4 at landfall :eek:
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Re: Typhoon Mitag in WPAC: Models Thread

#79 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:30 pm

November 22,12z EURO

Late posting this but here is the 12z EURO that has a strong typhoon slamming Luzon.
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Re:

#80 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:53 pm

stu wrote:Back on topic - latest guidence now suggest solid CAT4 at landfall :eek:


Yep, forecasting 115 kt...
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