WPAC: Tropical Depression Mitag

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wxmann_91
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#81 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:55 pm

What I will say is that the track forecast is extremely difficult. The mountainous portions of northern Luzon, from what I have heard from Steve (Aslkahuna), is not a good place to chase. Latest model guidance plus trends suggest that Mitag is about 48 hours away from landfall in Luzon. Though guidance suggests landfall somewhere in the mountainous regions of northern Luzon, current trends argue for a more south shift later tonight. PAGASA's track goes through the Bicol region. JTWC's track is on the southern portion of the guidance envelope, with landfall in the Calabarzon province (north of the PAGASA track). JMA's track is right in the middle of the guidance envelope with landfall in northern Luzon.

Some model maps:
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Images/24WSPAG.gif
http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/temp3t.png
(intensity) http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/temp3.png
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#82 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 22, 2007 9:06 pm

Image

Image

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2023NOV20 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 14:17:30 N Lon : 126:38:05 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 927.4mb/117.4kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.2 5.3 5.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.0mb

Center Temp : -74.5C Cloud Region Temp : -80.4C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Mitag

#83 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 22, 2007 9:10 pm

Image

Here is the latest forecast track.
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#84 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 22, 2007 9:19 pm

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#85 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu Nov 22, 2007 9:36 pm

Mitag has finally slowed down considerably. Latest 00z JMA forecast shows landfall in just over 48 hours at 75kts on mountainous and remote region of Luzon.

Going by that forecast it would make an extremely difficult intercept.
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#86 Postby stu » Fri Nov 23, 2007 8:58 am

I have blown off this intercept - the lack of roads means that it will be too tough!.

Anyway 1,000,000 people are now on the move.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/imp ... 67206.html

World weather impacts
Mitag evacuation operation extended
23 Nov 2007
The government in the Philippines has widened its evacuation operation ahead of the arrival of Typhoon Mitag.

AFP reported on November 23rd that Mitag, which has sustained winds of 108 miles per hour, will hit either the Bicol region or Quezon province the following day.

However, a civil defence spokesman predicted the typhoon's rain path would cover three-quarters of the country and warned that those not directly hit by the typhoon are likely to experience heavy rain.

The government's initial plan to evacuate around 200,000 people from coastal areas has been extended to include around one million people because of uncertainty about where exactly Mitag will strike and concerns about its extent.
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#87 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 23, 2007 10:12 am

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23/0830 UTC 13.7N 126.2E T5.0/5.0 MITAG -- West Pacific Ocean
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#88 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 23, 2007 11:15 am

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#89 Postby btangy » Sun Nov 25, 2007 5:02 pm

Some really intense rainfall occurring over Luzon right now:

Image

Image

Could be a very severe mudslide situation developing.
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#90 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Nov 25, 2007 5:43 pm

Jeez, that's bad. Fortunately, it's unlikely there will be excessive casualties, but it's still quite troubling. In addition, this will most likely be all that is the wrath of Mitag; after this, there's nowhere left for him to go.
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Mitag

#91 Postby P.K. » Mon Nov 26, 2007 5:39 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 262100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0723 MITAG (0723)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 262100UTC 20.9N 121.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 272100UTC 21.7N 125.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 281800UTC 22.4N 127.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 291800UTC 24.0N 130.2E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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#92 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 26, 2007 6:13 pm

Down to an STS, looking like it may become extratropical soon...
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Coredesat

Re: WPAC: Typhoon Mitag

#93 Postby Coredesat » Tue Nov 27, 2007 2:01 pm

JMA kills it off:

WTPQ21 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0723 MITAG (0723)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 20N 125E
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 1000HPA =
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