SW Pacific: Tropical Depression 02F

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P.K.
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SW Pacific: Tropical Depression 02F

#1 Postby P.K. » Tue Nov 20, 2007 6:25 pm

FQPS01 NFFN 201800
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Nov 202000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING NIL.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Nov 211800 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F 1005HPA NEAR 15S 177E MOVING SOUTHEAST 10
KNOTS. POSITION POOR. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30
KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ROUGH SEAS.


CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ 05S 160E 06S 165E 08S 170E 10S 173E TO 02F TO 15S
180 15S 175W 14S 170W 16S 165W 20S 160W 25S 155W SLOW MOVING. POOR
VISIBILITY IN SQUALLY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CZ
AND 02F.

TROUGH T1 17S 160E 20S 165E 23S 167E SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN
SQUALLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 MILES OF T1.

SOUTH OF 15S AND WEST OF 180, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
ROUGH SEAS. WITH A MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTEAST SWELL SOUTH OF 20S.

-----

WWPS21 NFFN 202100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 20/2323 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F 1005HPA ANALYSED NEAR 15S 177.5E AT 202100UTC
MOVING SOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS.CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED MUCH IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE SYSTEM 02F NOT WELL ORGANISED. 02F LIES UNDER
A 250HPA DIFLUENT FLOW WITH STRONG SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF 02F. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS [EC,UK,US] ARE NOT
DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING O2F SOUTHEASTWARDS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS IS LOW.

THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR
FORECAST IN THE AREA.
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Coredesat

#2 Postby Coredesat » Tue Nov 20, 2007 7:20 pm

Looks fairly weird:

Image
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Re: SW Pacific: Tropical Depression 02F

#3 Postby Squarethecircle » Tue Nov 20, 2007 8:04 pm

Looks rather odd for a cyclone; more of an invest level storm, I'd think. The rotation is visible but kind of disorganized; and the T-numbers shouldn't be awfully high. Methinks not much will come from this, but I'm hardly accurate.
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Re: SW Pacific: Tropical Depression 02F

#4 Postby P.K. » Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:09 am

WWPS21 NFFN 220900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 22/0929 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE [1002HPA] NEAR 19S 174E AT 220600 UTC
MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANISED WITH COLDEST TOPS DISPLACED TO EAST
OF EXPOSED LLCC. 02F REMAINS UNDER STRONGLY ZONAL FLOW AT 250HPA AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO AREA OF STRONGER SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY INFLUENCED BY A LOW-LEVEL NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS FAVOR A SOUTHEAST TRACK BUT DO NOT DEVELOP THE SYSTEM FURTHER.
SST IN THE AREA IS AROUND 28-30C.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12S 160E AT 220600UTC
IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IN THE AREA IS
ABOUT 30C.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT IN A GENERAL
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH ONLY SLIGHT DEEPENING. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A
DIFFLUENT REGION BUT A STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS EVIDENT JUST TO THE
SOUTH.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR
FORECAST IN THE AREA.
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