92S INVEST 15kts 1010mb 105S 729E

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92S INVEST 15kts 1010mb 105S 729E

#1 Postby tolakram » Sat Dec 01, 2007 12:42 am

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#2 Postby wyq614 » Sun Dec 02, 2007 1:24 am

When I posted the topic about 92S in a Chinese typhoon forum, no one cares about it....
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#3 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 02, 2007 1:29 am

Mauritius' latest high seas warning: LOW 1004 HPA NEAR 12.1S AND 71.2E.
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Re:

#4 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Dec 02, 2007 7:32 am

wyq614 wrote:When I posted the topic about 92S in a Chinese typhoon forum, no one cares about it....


So post about it here, we care (especially since there's been nothing going on for the past two freaking weeks...)!

It still looks rather poor, I'd say. I'd give it more chance than the Atlantic system, but it doesn't seem like this one will survive.
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#5 Postby wyq614 » Mon Dec 03, 2007 5:52 am

Attention, buddies, Attention!!!!


the area of convection previously located near 16.7s
72.6e, is now located near 16.9s 72.9e, approximately 570 nm south
of Diego Garcia. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery
reveals central dense overcast over the low level circulation center
(llcc)with convective banding from the north and south. A 030402z
ascat image confirms the LLCC with 30 knots of winds within 50 nm.
The upper level environment continues to be favorable for
development. An upper level mesoscale anticyclone over the
disturbance is also evident in the animated multispectral imagery. A
good poleward outflow channel is present due an upper level
midlatitude trough to the southeast. The disturbance is being
steered southeastward by the midlatitude westerlies. Vertical wind
shear values over the disturbance are low due the shielding effect
of the upper level mesoscale anticyclone. Maximum sustained surface
winds are estimated at 28 to 32 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is
estimated to be near 1003 mb. The potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to
good. See ref a (wtxs21 pgtw 031000) for further details.
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#6 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 03, 2007 6:32 am

TCFA issued:

WTXS21 PGTW 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
235 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.6S 72.5E TO 20.9S 79.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 031200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.7S 72.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 030402Z ASCAT
IMAGE CONFIRMS THE LLCC WITH 30 KNOTS OF WINDS WITHIN 50 NM. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
AN UPPER LEVEL MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DISTURBANCE IS ALSO
EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. A GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS PRESENT DUE AN UPPER LEVEL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD
BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OVER THE
DISTURBANCE ARE LOW DUE THE SHIELDING EFFECT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 041000Z.//

They must be seeing something else, then:
Image

LLCC clearly exposed and not covered by a CDO...
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#7 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 03, 2007 9:07 am

Reissued.

WTXS21 PGTW 031330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030951Z DEC 07//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 031000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 330 NM RADIUS OF 17.0S 69.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 031200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 70.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A PARTIALLY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST. A 030402Z ASCAT PASS
CONFIRMS THE LLCC WITH 30 KNOTS OF WINDS WITHIN 50 NM. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER
LEVEL MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CONVECTION IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. DESPITE STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW, THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OVER THE DISTURBANCE ARE LOW TO MODERATE
DUE TO THE SHIELDING EFFECT OF THE UPPER LEVEL MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE.
A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS PRESENT DUE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW BEING STEERED WESTWARD BY LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH CENTER NEAR 40S AND 65E. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO GOOD THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041330Z.//
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#8 Postby Squarethecircle » Mon Dec 03, 2007 12:09 pm

Hmm... I never like a storm with an open CDO.
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Re:

#9 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 03, 2007 1:10 pm

Squarethecircle wrote:Hmm... I never like a storm with an open CDO.


Maybe the CDO is invisible or imaginary. Anything is possible!!!
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Re: Re:

#10 Postby Squarethecircle » Mon Dec 03, 2007 5:45 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Squarethecircle wrote:Hmm... I never like a storm with an open CDO.


Maybe the CDO is invisible or imaginary. Anything is possible!!!


Sorry, I meant CoC.
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Coredesat

#11 Postby Coredesat » Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:13 am

TCFA has been cancelled, downgraded to poor.

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#12 Postby wyq614 » Tue Dec 04, 2007 2:48 am

Por que'?? Isn't 92S very promising?
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#13 Postby Squarethecircle » Tue Dec 04, 2007 6:12 pm

:uarrow: Actually, it's looking very poor right now. It'll probably dissipate soon.
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Coredesat

#14 Postby Coredesat » Wed Dec 05, 2007 12:04 am

It be dead.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 70.7E
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
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