Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman

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Cyclenall
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Re: Re:

#81 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Dec 06, 2007 6:15 pm

Squarethecircle wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:It looks like 120 knots (1-min winds) now. This is my estimate but I need to see how cleared out the eye is first.


Answer: It is very cloudy but very distinct.

I already checked at that time. Right now the eye continues to become better and it's near category 5 stregnth.
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#82 Postby Squarethecircle » Thu Dec 06, 2007 6:21 pm

I would not say this storm is a category five. I would say this is a mid-intensity category four, which is freaking insane for a storm this far out of it.
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#83 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 06, 2007 6:26 pm

Brisbane now has this at T6.5 as well. SAB are at 6.0/6.5. JTWC are at T6.5.
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#84 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 06, 2007 6:28 pm

Might just be me, but compared to a couple of hours ago the 2230Z image seems to show the eye getting clouded over again.

Image
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#85 Postby Coredesat » Thu Dec 06, 2007 6:29 pm

Impressive 37GHz image from WindSat earlier:

Image
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#86 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 06, 2007 6:35 pm

One thing I noticed is that it's a fairly small-sized storm. Which might help explain the explosive intensification.
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#87 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 06, 2007 6:36 pm

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre
Special Weather Bulletin Number FOURTEEN for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 8:01am on Friday the 7th of December 2007

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA GROUP, NORTHEASTERN VITI LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, TAVEUNI, VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAMANUCA GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE [CAT 3] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 176 DECIMAL 9 EAST OR ABOUT 155 KILOMETRES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YASAWA OR 220 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF NABOUWALU OR 255 KILOMETRES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI AT 06AM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 155 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 220 KM/HR. THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 15 KM/HR.

FOR THE YASAWA GROUP, NORTHEASTERN VITI LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, TAVEUNI, VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE THIS MORNING, STRENGTHENING FURTHER TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE AND THEN TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF UPTO 155 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 220
KM/HR LATER TODAY.

FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAMANUCA GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE LATER TODAY. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF UPTO 120 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 170 KM/HR FROM TONIGHT.

OVER THE REST OF FIJI, WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE OF 65 TO 85 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR FROM TONIGHT.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS, RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS, ESPECIALLY AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

FOR ROTUMA.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS FRESH AND GUSTY. PERIODS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS,

The following information is provided especially for the mariners: EXPECT WINDS OF VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITHIN 40 MILES OF CYCLONE CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS. DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO 100 MILES WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY
SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11AM
TODAY
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#88 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 06, 2007 6:40 pm

So it has indeed weakened from the earlier 940 hPa.
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#89 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 06, 2007 6:44 pm

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre
Special Weather Bulletin Number FIFTEEN for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 10:55am on Friday the 7th of December 2007

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE NORTHERN YASAWA GROUP, NORTHEASTERN VITI LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, TAVEUNI, VANUA LEVU, NORTHERN LAU GROUP, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN YASAWA GROUP, CENTRAL PARTS OF VITI LEVU, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE 940HPA [CATEGORY 4] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 4 EAST OR ABOUT 135 KILOMETRES NORTH OF YASAWA OR 185 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF NABOUWALU OR 235 KILOMETRES WEST-NORTHWEST OF LABASA AT 10AM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 175 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 250 KM/HR. THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING EAST ABOUT 20 KM/HR BUT EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST LATER.

FOR THE NORTHERN YASAWA GROUP, NORTHEASTERN VITI LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, TAVEUNI, VANUA LEVU, NORTHERN LAU GROUP, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON, STRENGTHENING FURTHER TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE AND THEN TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF UPTO 175 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 250 KM/HR LATER TODAY.

FOR THE SOUTHERN YASAWA GROUP, CENTRAL PARTS OF VITI LEVU, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE LATER TODAY. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF UPTO 120 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 170 KM/HR FROM TONIGHT.

OVER THE REST OF FIJI, WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE OF 65 TO 85 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR FROM TONIGHT.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS, RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS, ESPECIALLY AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

FOR ROTUMA.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS FRESH AND GUSTY. PERIODS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS,

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:EXPECT WINDS OF VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITHIN 35 MILES OF CYCLONE CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS. DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 55 MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO 90 MILES WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY
SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2PM TODAY
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#90 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 06, 2007 6:51 pm

... Or not. It's still 940 hPa, then.
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Re:

#91 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 06, 2007 6:55 pm

Chacor wrote:... Or not. It's still 940 hPa, then.

Sorry i posted before the wrong bulletin
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Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman - heading right at Fiji

#92 Postby P.K. » Thu Dec 06, 2007 6:55 pm

It has only just dropped to 940hPa it looks like. Winds are up to 95kts as well in that last advisory.
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Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman - heading right at Fiji

#93 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 06, 2007 7:01 pm

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2007DEC06 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 15:34:38 S Lon : 177:45:54 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 927.0mb/117.4kt



6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 5.9 5.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -23.2C Cloud Region Temp : -69.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Re:

#94 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Dec 06, 2007 7:10 pm

Squarethecircle wrote:I would not say this storm is a category five. I would say this is a mid-intensity category four, which is freaking insane for a storm this far out of it.

"Near" and "at" are two different words. Still needs a cleaning out of the eye.
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Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman - heading right at Fiji

#95 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 06, 2007 7:19 pm

Image
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Re: Re:

#96 Postby Squarethecircle » Thu Dec 06, 2007 7:29 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
Squarethecircle wrote:I would not say this storm is a category five. I would say this is a mid-intensity category four, which is freaking insane for a storm this far out of it.

"Near" and "at" are two different words. Still needs a cleaning out of the eye.


Sorry. Still, don't think it's quite near it either.
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Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman - heading right at Fiji

#97 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 06, 2007 7:32 pm

Image
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#98 Postby Squarethecircle » Thu Dec 06, 2007 7:59 pm

The eye seems much less distinct, now.
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Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman - heading right at Fiji

#99 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 06, 2007 8:08 pm

Image
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Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman - heading right at Fiji

#100 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 06, 2007 8:10 pm

Image
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