Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman

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Coredesat

#41 Postby Coredesat » Wed Dec 05, 2007 5:44 pm

Looking quite impressive already:

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#42 Postby Squarethecircle » Wed Dec 05, 2007 5:46 pm

:uarrow: :eek: Jebus, that's awesome.
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#43 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 05, 2007 7:28 pm

Image

Nice curl!!!
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#44 Postby Squarethecircle » Wed Dec 05, 2007 8:43 pm

Could that be the beginning of a banding eye?
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#45 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 05, 2007 8:44 pm

Image

NRL says 55 kts.
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#46 Postby wyq614 » Wed Dec 05, 2007 11:47 pm

336
wtps31 pgtw 060300
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 05p (daman) warning nr 003
01 active tropical cyclone in southpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
---
warning position:
060000z --- near 14.7s 175.7e
movement past six hours - 205 degrees at 09 kts
position accurate to within 040 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 025 nm northeast quadrant
030 nm southeast quadrant
030 nm southwest quadrant
025 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
060 nm southeast quadrant
060 nm southwest quadrant
055 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 14.7s 175.7e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
061200z --- 15.7s 175.5e
Max sustained winds - 060 kt, gusts 075 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
030 nm southeast quadrant
030 nm southwest quadrant
030 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
075 nm southeast quadrant
075 nm southwest quadrant
065 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 24 hr posit: 145 deg/ 05 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
070000z --- 16.6s 176.1e
Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 035 nm northeast quadrant
035 nm southeast quadrant
035 nm southwest quadrant
035 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 080 nm northeast quadrant
080 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
070 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 36 hr posit: 135 deg/ 08 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
071200z --- 17.7s 177.3e
Max sustained winds - 060 kt, gusts 075 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
030 nm southeast quadrant
025 nm southwest quadrant
020 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 075 nm northeast quadrant
075 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
070 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 48 hr posit: 145 deg/ 11 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
080000z --- 19.6s 178.6e
Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
becoming extratropical
radius of 050 kt winds - 025 nm northeast quadrant
025 nm southeast quadrant
020 nm southwest quadrant
020 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
070 nm southeast quadrant
065 nm southwest quadrant
065 nm northwest quadrant
---
remarks:
060300z position near 15.0s 175.7e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 05p (daman) located approximately 190 nm north
of nadi, Fiji, has tracked south-southwestward at 09 knots over the
past 06 hours. Over the past 12 hours, tc 05p has slowed slightly and
turned more southward as it tracked along the northwestern periphery
of the mid-level subtropical ridge. There is high confidence in pos-
itioning which was based on tightly-curved banding and several Micro-
wave images showing a well-defined low-level circulation center at
37 ghz. Tc 05p has continued to intensify due to the excellent dual
channel outflow evident in animated water vapor imagery as well as
favorable sea surface temperatures (sst) and ocean heat content (ohc).
The current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates of 55 knots from
all available agencies. Tc 05p is forecast to continue tracking along
the northwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge through tau 24 but
will gradually turn south-southeastward and accelerate within en-
hanced poleward flow between the approaching deep trough and the
ridge to the east. Overall, the dynamic aids are in good agreement
with this track but diverge slightly after tau 48 due to the weak-
ening of the system within an increasingly unfavorable environment
of higher vertical wind shear, and lower SST/ohc. Maximum signif-
icant wave height at 060000z is 11 feet. Next warnings at 061500z
and 070300z.//
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#47 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Dec 06, 2007 12:27 am

Fiji now saying 60 kt (10-min)...

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINE FOR FIJI AND ROTUMA ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE DAMAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 4:41pm on Thursday the 6th of December 2007
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUPS, AND
NORTHWESTERN VITI LEVU.

A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VITI LEVU, LOMAIVITI
GROUP, WESTERN VANUA LEVU, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALL ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE [CAT 2] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15 DECIMAL 1
SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 7 EAST OR ABOUT 350 KILOMETRES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
NADI AND 270 NORTHWEST OF YASAWA AT 3PM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE,
THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 110 KM/HR WITH
MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 150 KM/HR.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE YASAWAS
AND MAMANUCAS, AND NORTHWESTERN VITI LEVU WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 50
TO 70 KM/HR FROM THIS EVENING AND TO 90 TO 110 KM/HR FROM FRIDAY
MORNING.
OVER THE REST OF VITI LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, WESTERN VANUA LEVU,
KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALL ISLANDS. EXPECT WINDS TO BE 40 TO 60 KM/HR
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING TO 65 TO 85 KM/HR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FIJI WINDS SHOULD INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING TO 30 TO 50 KM/HR, AND 50 TO 65 KM/HR LATER IN THE DAY.
FOR THE WHOLE COUNTRY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT WITH
HEAVY FALLS AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED, ALSO FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS, RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

THE STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ROTUMA.
OVER ROTUMA EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 35 TO 50 KM/HR AND GUSTS TO 65
KM/HR EASING TO FRESH THIS EVENING . RAIN GRADUALLY EASING.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS:
DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE AND 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NORTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE . VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY
SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Fiji and Rotuma will be issued
around 8pm this evening.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Daman

#48 Postby P.K. » Thu Dec 06, 2007 8:07 am

WHPS01 NFFN 061200
HURRICANE WARNING 008 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 06/1304 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN [970HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4 SOUTH 176.2 EAST AT
061200 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 15.4S 176.2E AT 061200 UTC.
CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 06 KNOTS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 70
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE.


FORECAST POSITION NEAR 16.4S 177.1E AT 070000 UTC
AND NEAR 17.3S 178.5E AT 071200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 007.
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#49 Postby Squarethecircle » Thu Dec 06, 2007 8:19 am

Folks, this storm now has an eye (check for yourself).
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#50 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 06, 2007 8:30 am

WOW:

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#51 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 06, 2007 8:35 am

Wow, the eye sure cleared out in a hurry out of nowhere.
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#52 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 06, 2007 8:37 am

Special Weather Bulletin Number ELEVEN for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
DAMAN
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 10:50pm on Thursday the 6th of December 2007

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUPS,
NORTHWESTERN VITI LEVU, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VITI LEVU, WESTERN VANUA
LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, VATULELE, BEQA, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALL
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE [CAT 2] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15 DECIMAL 4
SOUTH 176 DECIMAL 0 EAST OR ABOUT 300 KILOMETRES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
NADI OR 225 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF YASAWA AT 10.45PM TONIGHT. CLOSE
TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO
120 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 170 KM/HR. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING
SOUTHWARDS ABOUT 10 KM/HR AND EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR THE YASAWAS AND MAMANUCAS, AND NORTHWESTERN VITI LEVU AND NEARBY
SMALLER ISLANDS WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE
SPEEDS OF 65 TO 85 KM/HR WITH MONEMTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR FROM
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM
FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 110 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 150
KM/HR LATER IN THE DAY.

OVER THE REST OF VITI LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, WESTERN VANUA LEVU,
KADAVU, VATULELE, BEQA AND NEARBY SMALL ISLANDS. EXPECT WINDS
INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE OF 65 TO 85 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY
GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR FROM FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF FIJI WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE
WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90 KM/HR FROM
SATURDAY.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT WITH HEAVY FALLS AND
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS, RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS ALSO EXPECTED,

FOR ROTUMA.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS FRESH AND GUSTY. PERIODS OF RAIN HEAVY AT
TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELLS,

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
EXPECT WINDS OF DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITHIN 50 MILES OF CYCLONE
CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO 100 MILES OF
CYCLONE CENTRE WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2AM
TOMORROW MORNING.
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#53 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 06, 2007 8:38 am

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#54 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 06, 2007 8:38 am

Image

A more impressive image.
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#55 Postby Squarethecircle » Thu Dec 06, 2007 8:43 am

When was the last time Fiji had a truly strong storm?
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#56 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 06, 2007 8:45 am

They get a couple of tropical storms every now and then. Don't think they've had a major hurricane-equivalent in a while though. And certainly conditions only get worse here on out so I think Daman is at or near his peak, probably won't go any stronger than 70-75 kt 10-min.
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#57 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 06, 2007 9:16 am

Image

Image

The best so far.
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#58 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 06, 2007 10:09 am

Image

Looks really good.
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#59 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 06, 2007 10:27 am

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWELVE for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
DAMAN
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 1:58am on Friday the 7th of December 2007

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA GROUP, NORTHERN VITI LEVU,
WESTERN VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAMANUCA GROUP,
NORTHERN HALF OF VITI LEVU, SOUTHERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY
SMALLER ISLANDS.
A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VITI LEVU, LOMAIVITI
GROUP, VATULELE, BEQA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE [CAT 3] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15 DECIMAL 4
SOUTH 176 DECIMAL 3 EAST OR ABOUT 290 KILOMETRES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
NADI OR 200 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF YASAWA AT 01.45AM TODAY. CLOSE TO
ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 120
KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 180 KM/HR. THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST ABOUT 10 KM/HR.

FOR THE YASAWA GROUP, NORTHERN VITI LEVU, WESTERN VANUA LEVU AND
NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH
AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65 TO 85 KM/HR WITH MONEMTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR
FROM THIS MORNING. WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM
FORCE AND THEN TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE
SPEEDS OF 120 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 180 KM/HR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAMANUCA GROUP, NORTHERN HALF OF VITI LEVU,
SOUTHERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, WINDS
INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65 TO 85
KM/HR WITH MONEMTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR FROM THIS MORNING. WINDS
STRENGTHENING FURTHER TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS
OF 110 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 150 KM/HR FROM LATER TODAY.

OVER THE REST OF VITI LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, VATULELE, BEQA AND
NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE OF 65
TO 85 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR FROM LATER TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH
AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90 KM/HR FROM
SATURDAY.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT WITH HEAVY FALLS AND
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS, RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS ALSO EXPECTED,

FOR ROTUMA.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS FRESH AND GUSTY. PERIODS OF RAIN HEAVY AT
TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELLS,

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
EXPECT WINDS OF VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITHIN 30 MILES OF
CYCLONE CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS. DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE
WINDS TO 100 MILES WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY
SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5AM
TODAY
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#60 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 06, 2007 10:28 am

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 06/1419 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE [970HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4 SOUTH
176.2 EAST AT 061200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON RADAR, HR MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65
KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
WINDS OVER 47 WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 70
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE EASILY VISIBLE ON IR. CONVECTION TO SOUTHEAST
DEVELOPING AND TOPS COOLING. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD
TO NORTH AND SOUTH AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SHEAR INCREASING TO EAST
OF TRACK[CIMSS]. DVORAK BASED ON MG SURROUND AND OW EYE TEMP,
YIELDING A DT 4.5, PT AND MET AGREE, THUS T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM
LIES TO WEST OF 250-HPA OUTFLOW DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT-WAVE UPPER TROUGH. CYCLONE IS STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO EAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS TRACK PROJECTION
WITH LITTLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST :
AT 12HRS VALID 070000 UTC NEAR 16.3S 177.2E MOV SE 07KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 071200 UTC NEAR 17.2S 178.6E MOV SE 07KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID 080000 UTC NEAR 18.0S 180.0E MOV SE 08KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 081200 UTC NEAR 19.3S 179.2W MOV SSE 08KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC DAMAN WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 062030 UTC.
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