Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman

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#121 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 07, 2007 2:29 am

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#122 Postby Coredesat » Fri Dec 07, 2007 2:29 am

The eye isn't discernible in the 05Z SSMI microwave imagery:

Image

This isn't an eyewall replacement cycle, so I imagine Daman has encountered the unfavorable environment mentioned by the JTWC. The CIMSS shear map shows it approaching the subtropical westerlies.
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Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman - heading right at Fiji

#123 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 07, 2007 3:15 am

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 943.7mb/102.0kt
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Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman - heading right at Fiji

#124 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 07, 2007 4:15 am

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Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman - heading right at Fiji

#125 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 07, 2007 5:39 am


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2007DEC07 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 15:40:17 S Lon : 179:38:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 951.4mb/ 94.8kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 4.6 4.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.6mb

Center Temp : -71.2C Cloud Region Temp : -67.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
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#126 Postby Squarethecircle » Fri Dec 07, 2007 6:33 am

Looks like Fiji will be saved from an enormous pounding, although the surge should still be very bad.
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#127 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 07, 2007 2:23 pm

Still an Aus Cat 4 with a 935mb pressure according to Fiji, although that does seem quite low IMO. I think the real intensity is 958mb and 1-min winds of 90 kt right now.
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Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman - heading right at Fiji

#128 Postby P.K. » Fri Dec 07, 2007 3:19 pm

FKPS01 NFFN 071800
TC ADVISORY
DTG:200712071900Z
TCAC:NFFN
TC:DAMAN
NR:11
PSN:S1554 E17930
MOV:ESE 9KT
C:940HPA
MAX WIND:90KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR:S1700 W17830
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR:75KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR:S1824 W17754
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR:60KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR:S1924 W17754
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR:50KT
NXT MSG:20071207/0130Z
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#129 Postby Squarethecircle » Fri Dec 07, 2007 3:33 pm

It's passed by Fiji now.
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#130 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 07, 2007 7:49 pm

Yep, passed by as a Cat 2-3 on our scale it appears. I think it is weaker than the official intensity suggests now - it doesn't look like a 940mb storm at all...my guess now is around 964mb.
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#131 Postby wyq614 » Fri Dec 07, 2007 8:41 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 DEC 2007 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 16:37:01 S Lon : 177:25:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 984.5mb/ 72.2kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.3mb

Center Temp : -61.7C Cloud Region Temp : -59.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

他没有在斐济登陆么?
It didn't make a landfall in Fiji?
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Re:

#132 Postby Squarethecircle » Fri Dec 07, 2007 9:20 pm

wyq614 wrote:It didn't make a landfall in Fiji?


Nope, a last minute shift in course swerved it to the east, giving many Fijians something to be thankful for.
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Re: Re:

#133 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 07, 2007 10:51 pm

Squarethecircle wrote:
wyq614 wrote:It didn't make a landfall in Fiji?


Nope, a last minute shift in course swerved it to the east, giving many Fijians something to be thankful for.


Also it weakened considerably before it approached Fiji, sparing them what could have been a Category 4 hit (on our scale).

Currently down to an Cat 3 on the Aussie scale (so probably a Cat 1 now), with a 950mb pressure (officially, although I think it is more likely now around 970mb).
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Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman - heading right at Fiji

#134 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 07, 2007 11:40 pm

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Tonga ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DAMAN ISSUED FROM FUA'AMOTU 1:40PM 08 DEC 2007.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR VAVA'U, HA'APAI, EUA AND TONGATAPU.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE 940HPA [CATEGORY 4] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16 DECIMAL
2 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 6 WEST OR ABOUT 550 KM WNW OF VAVAU AT 11:00AM THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY, CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP
TO 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 125KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS
NOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OF STORM FORCE WINDS BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE FOREWARNED AREAS.

FOR THE VAVA'U, HA'APAI, TONGATAPU AND NEARBY ISLANDS, EXPECT WINDS INCREASING
TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE OF 35KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS FROM TOMORROW.


The following information is provided especially for the mariners:

TOMORROW EXPECT WINDS OF DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE WITH
VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO 50 MILES WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 8:00PM TODAY.


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Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman - heading right at Fiji

#135 Postby P.K. » Sat Dec 08, 2007 8:18 am

WWFJ40 NFFN 080900

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-SEVEN for Fiji ON SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 10:44pm on Saturday the 8th of December 2007

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR VANUA BALAVU, MUNIA, CIKOBIA,
KATAFAGA, TUVUCA, ONEATA, MOCE, KOMO, NAMUKA. KABARA, OGEA, FULAGA,
VATOA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE 970HPA [CATEGORY 3] WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17 DECIMAL 3 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 KILOMETRES TO
THE NORTHEAST OF LAKEBA OR 215 KILOMETRES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KABARA
AT 10PM TONIGHT. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO
HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 120 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 170
KM/HR. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KM/HR AND EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH .


ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 140
KILOMETRES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF LAKEBA AT 6AM TOMORROW AND ABOUT
140 KILOMETRES EAST OF KABARA AT 6PM TOMORROW EVENING.

FOR VANUA BALAVU, MUNIA, CIKOBIA, KATAFAGA, TUVUCA, ONEATA, MOCE,
KOMO, NAMUKA. KABARA, OGEA, FULAGA, VATOA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS,
EXPECT WINDS OF DAMAGING GALE FORCE OF 65 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS
TO 100 KM/HR FROM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR ONO-I-LAU, WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 65 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 100 KM/HR LATER
TOMORROW IF THE CYCLONE MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AND TRACK.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAU GROUP. SEA
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS, ESPECIALLY AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI, FINE WEATHER APART FROM SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ABOUT THE MAIN
ISLANDS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FRESH AND GUSTY AT TIMES. ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR ROTUMA.
SLIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH
SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AND BECOMING FREQUENT FROM TOMORROW . SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS SLOWLY ABATING.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL
SEAS. DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE WITH
VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO 55 MILES OF CENTRE WITH
VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR KORO SEA, VATU-I-RA PASSAGE, KADAVU PASSAGE AND SOUTHWEST VITI
LEVU, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE
TO HEAVY SWELLS. ELSEWHERE, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS.
MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2AM
TOMORROW MORNING.
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#136 Postby wyq614 » Sat Dec 08, 2007 10:31 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 DEC 2007 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 17:37:35 S Lon : 177:49:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 993.2mb/ 59.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.0mb

Center Temp : +13.6C Cloud Region Temp : -9.4C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.36^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
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#137 Postby wyq614 » Sat Dec 08, 2007 10:59 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 DEC 2007 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 17:43:45 S Lon : 177:45:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 998.4mb/ 51.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.0mb

Center Temp : +15.5C Cloud Region Temp : -1.9C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.44^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON

“达曼”快死咯。。。。
Daman is dying...
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#138 Postby Squarethecircle » Sat Dec 08, 2007 11:03 am

Too much shear, cold water, and the potential for ET make it pretty clear that this will die before midnight (UTC).
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#139 Postby wyq614 » Sat Dec 08, 2007 11:14 am

我要睡觉了,也许我明天醒来时,就再也看不到“达曼”了。

Time for me to sleep, maybe I can't see Daman any longer when I wake up tomorrow..
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#140 Postby wyq614 » Sat Dec 08, 2007 11:15 am

我要睡觉了,也许我明天醒来时,就再也看不到“达曼”了。

Time for me to sleep, maybe I can't see Daman any longer when I wake up tomorrow..
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