Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman

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wyq614
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#141 Postby wyq614 » Sat Dec 08, 2007 8:03 pm

一觉醒来,就只剩这点强度了。
Cuando desperté, Daman sólo quedó esta intensidad...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 DEC 2007 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 17:59:46 S Lon : 177:40:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1006.9mb/ 35.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.5 3.1 3.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.9mb

Center Temp : +14.2C Cloud Region Temp : 5.2C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.22^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON
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#142 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Dec 08, 2007 8:59 pm

Could Daman be trying to regenerate?
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#143 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 08, 2007 9:09 pm

Image

I think shear is winning.
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#144 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 09, 2007 2:50 am

Both Fiji and JTWc have issued final warnings at 06z.
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#145 Postby wyq614 » Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:44 am

wtps31 pgtw 090900
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 05p (daman) warning nr 010
01 active tropical cyclone in southpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
---
warning position:
090600z --- near 18.5s 178.1w
movement past six hours - 195 degrees at 04 kts
position accurate to within 040 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over water
repeat posit: 18.5s 178.1w
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
091800z --- 19.4s 178.1w
Max sustained winds - 025 kt, gusts 035 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over water
vector to 24 hr posit: 205 deg/ 05 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
100600z --- 20.3s 178.5w
Max sustained winds - 020 kt, gusts 030 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over water
---
remarks:
090900z position near 18.7s 178.1w.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 05p (daman) located approximately 200 nm
east of Suva, Fiji, has tracked south-southwestward at 04 knots
over the past 06 hours. The system has continued to weaken over
the past 12 hours, with no convection remaining over the low level
circulation center (LLCC). The system is expected to fully dissipate
by tau 24. This is the final warning on this system by the joint
monitored for signs of regeneration. Maximum significant wave height
at 090600z is 16 feet.//

北京时间9日17点
热带低压“达曼”第十报:
位置:
9日14时:18.5S 178.1W
9日17时:18.7S 178.1W
最大风速:30KT,阵风40KT。
正在消散过程中
移动:南(偏西15度) 4KT。
-------- 
预报位置:
10日2点:19.4S 178.1W
最大风速:25KT,阵风35KT,
正在消散过程中
移动:西南(偏南20度) 5KT。
--------
10日14点:20.3S 178.5W
最大风速:20KT,阵风30KT,
在海洋上挂掉
--------
备注:热带低压“达曼”目前位于斐济苏瓦市以东200海里的洋面上,过去六个小时以4KT的速度,向南南西方向移动。过去12个小时中,该系统持续减弱。低层环流中心上方已经没有对流。预计该风暴将在24小时以内彻底挂掉,这是联合台风预警中心最后一次针对“达曼”发布报告,我们将密切关注它可能的加强。14点的最大浪高是16英尺。
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#146 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Dec 09, 2007 7:41 pm

A 7.8 earthquake hit today just south of Fiji:

Link: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqi ... k/#scitech

That was close to the TC.
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Re:

#147 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Dec 10, 2007 11:35 am

Cyclenall wrote:A 7.8 earthquake hit today just south of Fiji:

Link: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqi ... k/#scitech

That was close to the TC.



I just saw that and was about to post it. Another earthquake-cyclone couple.
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