Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman

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wyq614
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#61 Postby wyq614 » Thu Dec 06, 2007 11:59 am

北京时间6日23点
热带旋风“达曼”第四报
------
风暴位置:
6日20点:15.4S 176.3E
6日23点:15.6S 176.5E
最大风速:70KT,阵风85KT。
移动:东南 4KT。
------
预报位置:
7日8点:16.1S 177.2E
最大风速:75KT,阵风90KT。
移动:东南(偏东15度) 7KT。
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7日20点:16.8S 178.5E
最大风速:80KT,阵风100KT。
移动:东南(偏南10度) 7KT。
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8日8点:17.9S 179.3E
最大风速:70KT,阵风85KT。
移动:南(偏东20度) 7KT。
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8日20点:19.2S 179.8E
最大风速:55KT,阵风70KT。
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热带旋风“达曼”,目前位于斐济楠迪市西北方向130海里处,在过去6小时,以4KT的速度向东南方向移动。在此过程中,“达曼”由于外部条件均适合,得到了显著加强,明显的风眼结构方便了我们的中心定位。预计该风暴将在24小时内继续小幅加强,24小时过后,“达曼”将会转向南南东方向移动,并且由于南方向的辐合加强而加速。48小时后,由于海温的降低和风切的增强,风暴将会减弱,20点的最大浪高是18英尺。
下一次发报时间:北京时间7日11点。

wtps31 pgtw 061500
subj/tropical cyclone 05p (daman) warning nr 004
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 05p (daman) warning nr 004
01 active tropical cyclone in southpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
---
warning position:
061200z --- near 15.4s 176.3e
movement past six hours - 135 degrees at 04 kts
position accurate to within 040 nm
position based on eye fixed by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 070 kt, gusts 085 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 010 nm northeast quadrant
010 nm southeast quadrant
010 nm southwest quadrant
010 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 035 nm northeast quadrant
040 nm southeast quadrant
040 nm southwest quadrant
035 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
065 nm southeast quadrant
065 nm southwest quadrant
055 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 15.4s 176.3e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
070000z --- 16.1s 177.2e
Max sustained winds - 075 kt, gusts 090 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 015 nm northeast quadrant
015 nm southeast quadrant
015 nm southwest quadrant
015 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
030 nm southeast quadrant
030 nm southwest quadrant
030 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
075 nm southeast quadrant
075 nm southwest quadrant
065 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 24 hr posit: 120 deg/ 07 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
071200z --- 16.8s 178.5e
Max sustained winds - 080 kt, gusts 100 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 020 nm northeast quadrant
020 nm southeast quadrant
020 nm southwest quadrant
020 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 040 nm northeast quadrant
040 nm southeast quadrant
040 nm southwest quadrant
040 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
075 nm southeast quadrant
075 nm southwest quadrant
065 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 36 hr posit: 145 deg/ 07 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
080000z --- 17.9s 179.3e
Max sustained winds - 070 kt, gusts 085 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 015 nm northeast quadrant
015 nm southeast quadrant
015 nm southwest quadrant
015 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
030 nm southeast quadrant
025 nm southwest quadrant
020 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 075 nm northeast quadrant
075 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
070 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 48 hr posit: 160 deg/ 07 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
081200z --- 19.2s 179.8e
Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
becoming extratropical
radius of 050 kt winds - 025 nm northeast quadrant
025 nm southeast quadrant
020 nm southwest quadrant
020 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
070 nm southeast quadrant
065 nm southwest quadrant
065 nm northwest quadrant
---
remarks:
061500z position near 15.6s 176.5e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 05p (daman) located approximately 130 nm north-
northwest of nadi, Fiji, has tracked southeastward at 04 knots over
the
past 06 hours. Over the past 12 hours, tc 05p has slowed turned
south-
eastward as it recurved along the western periphery of the mid-level
subtropical ridge. During this time, tc 05p has significantly
intensified
and an eye feature developed in enhanced infrared imagery giving a
high
confidence in positioning. The intensification is due to the
excellent
dual-channel outflow evident in animated water vapor imagery as well
as
favorable sea surface temperatures (sst) and ocean heat content
(ohc).
The current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates of 65 to 75 knots
from
all available agencies. Tc 05p is forecast to slightly intensify as
it
continues tracking along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level
ridge
through tau 24. After tau 24, 05p will gradually turn
south-southeastward
and slightly accelerate within enhanced poleward flow between the
approaching
deep trough and the ridge to the east. Overall, the dynamic aids
continue to
remain in good agreement with this track but still diverge slightly
after tau
48 due to the weakening of the system within an increasingly
unfavorable
environment of higher vertical wind shear, land interaction, and
lower SST
and ohc. Maximum significant wave height at 061200z is 18 feet. Next
warnings
at 070300z and 071500z.//

太晚了,我睡了,大家晚安
It's very late now, I'll go to sleep. Good night to everyone.
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#62 Postby Squarethecircle » Thu Dec 06, 2007 12:52 pm

Does anyone know what the latest CIMSS T-number is?

Note/Edit: This seems like it's stronger than 75 knots; I'd guess at least 85.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Daman

#63 Postby btangy » Thu Dec 06, 2007 1:40 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 940.9mb/104.6kt

You can always find the latest ADT estimates at
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/

along with a ton of other goodies that CIMSS puts out. They've put together a very nice layout with lots of info readily accessible.
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#64 Postby Squarethecircle » Thu Dec 06, 2007 2:24 pm

:uarrow: Jesus Christ!

:eek: :eek:
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Daman

#65 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 06, 2007 2:27 pm

Image
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Daman

#66 Postby P.K. » Thu Dec 06, 2007 2:35 pm

They can't decide what to call this one. :lol:

WHPS01 NFFN 061800
HURRICANE WARNING 009 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 06/1930 UTC 2007 UTC.

CORRECTION CATEGORY------------
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE [955HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5
SOUTH 176.9 EAST AT 061800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 15.5 SOUTH 176.9 EAST AT 061800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 95
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 64 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF THE CENTRE AND
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE.


FORECAST POSITION NEAR 16.2S 178.1E AT 070600 UTC
AND NEAR 17.1S 179.1E AT 071800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 008.
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#67 Postby Squarethecircle » Thu Dec 06, 2007 2:39 pm

So, when exactly was the last major-equivalent cyclone to make landfall on Fiji? Because it appears that if it isn't one already, it will certainly be one by landfall.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Daman

#68 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 06, 2007 3:19 pm

Image

Image
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#69 Postby Squarethecircle » Thu Dec 06, 2007 3:33 pm

Yes, we all get it, the storm looks like a beast, now can we TALK about it?
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Re:

#70 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 06, 2007 3:36 pm

Squarethecircle wrote:Yes, we all get it, the storm looks like a beast, now can we TALK about it?


OK!! I think since the WPAC is not producing monsters at the moment, the SPAC decided to take over.
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#71 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Dec 06, 2007 3:40 pm

It looks like 120 knots (1-min winds) now. This is my estimate but I need to see how cleared out the eye is first.
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#72 Postby Squarethecircle » Thu Dec 06, 2007 3:46 pm

:uarrow: I'd say that's a decent estimate. Fiji is gonna be a rockin' and a rollin' soon. The best we can hope for is for it to cut between the two islands, however, even then, the storm could be devastating.
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#73 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 06, 2007 3:48 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 935.2mb/109.8kt
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Re:

#74 Postby Squarethecircle » Thu Dec 06, 2007 4:47 pm

Cyclenall wrote:It looks like 120 knots (1-min winds) now. This is my estimate but I need to see how cleared out the eye is first.


Answer: It is very cloudy but very distinct.
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#75 Postby Coredesat » Thu Dec 06, 2007 4:49 pm

360
TPPS10 PGTW 062121

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DAMAN)

B. 06/2030Z

C. 15.5S/1

D. 177.3E/8

E. TWO/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.0/18HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS (06/2030Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

05A/PBO SMALL EYE/ANMTN. 20NM WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY
BLACK RING YIELDS A CF OF 5.5. EYE ADJUSTMENT ADDED 1.0.
FINAL DT YIELDS A 6.5. DBO DT. PT SUPPORTS.
UNREPRESENTATIVE MET EQUALS 5.0.

VIAULT
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Re:

#76 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Dec 06, 2007 5:20 pm

Squarethecircle wrote:When was the last time Fiji had a truly strong storm?


Cyclone Ami 2003

Image
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Daman

#77 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 06, 2007 5:58 pm

Image
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#78 Postby Squarethecircle » Thu Dec 06, 2007 6:11 pm

Dang, that eye really cleared out fast.
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Re: Re:

#79 Postby Squarethecircle » Thu Dec 06, 2007 6:11 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:
Squarethecircle wrote:When was the last time Fiji had a truly strong storm?


Cyclone Ami 2003

Image


That doesn't seem as strong as Daman though.
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#80 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 06, 2007 6:12 pm

:eek:

Now 940 hPa and cat 4 on the Australian scale.
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