OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

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OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:24 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Post away about this December surprise system moving from East to West.

Thread at Talking Tropics about the system.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=99312&start=0
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#2 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:28 pm

Didn't expect to be coming back here for an "L" until next year.

What 2007 lacks in ACE, it makes up for in weirdness.
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Tropical Depression OLGA Models Thread

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:32 pm

TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2117 UTC SUN DEC 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20071209 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071209 1800 071210 0600 071210 1800 071211 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 57.6W 18.7N 60.9W 18.6N 64.4W 18.3N 67.7W
BAMD 18.8N 57.6W 19.8N 59.3W 20.7N 61.1W 21.5N 63.1W
BAMM 18.8N 57.6W 18.9N 59.9W 19.3N 62.4W 19.6N 64.9W
LBAR 18.8N 57.6W 19.4N 59.6W 20.1N 61.2W 20.3N 63.0W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 38KTS 36KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 38KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071211 1800 071212 1800 071213 1800 071214 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 71.3W 17.8N 77.7W 17.4N 82.8W 16.9N 86.9W
BAMD 22.0N 65.0W 22.8N 69.7W 23.6N 73.9W 23.9N 75.7W
BAMM 19.7N 68.0W 20.2N 74.6W 20.7N 80.3W 20.7N 84.4W
LBAR 20.3N 64.6W 19.5N 68.3W 18.4N 73.1W 16.3N 77.5W
SHIP 30KTS 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.8N LONCUR = 57.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 18.5N LONM12 = 54.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 18.2N LONM24 = 50.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 200NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 120NM

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#4 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:33 pm

Aww... looks like it'll be gone by the time my birthday rolls around. (Dec 13)
Oh, well.
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#5 Postby Vortex » Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:35 pm

looks pretty good-heck damn good by december standards and has a chance at becoming a TS down the road and may make it all the way to the western carribean...
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#6 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:36 pm

This is the best year ever. :cheesy:

I love weird storms.
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Re: INVEST 94L Models Thread

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:40 pm

Image
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: INVEST 94L Models Thread

#8 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:45 pm

I just went to post in my Joe Bastardi thread, and its locked. I was gonna post this was 94L, but I was too late.
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Re: INVEST 94L Near Northern Leewards : Discussions & Images

#9 Postby RL3AO » Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:45 pm

You've gotta be kidding me.
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:46 pm

Image

Nice!!!
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#11 Postby AJC3 » Sun Dec 09, 2007 5:00 pm

WONT41 KNHC 092158
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH IN THIS AREA TO SUPPORT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY PROHIBITIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE EASTERN BAHAMAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#12 Postby RL3AO » Sun Dec 09, 2007 5:04 pm

It's not a TWO, and it could have been orange, but here ya go.

Image
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Re: INVEST 94L= Special Tropical Disturbance Statement

#13 Postby Vortex » Sun Dec 09, 2007 5:06 pm

Who would of thought...Does anyone have any data on TC formation in this area in December with an expected westward movement for the next several days. I can only find TC fomation in December over the North-central atlantic etc...
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 09, 2007 5:11 pm

In 2001 Olga was certainty interesting, but if we Olga version 2007, it will top it.
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#15 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Dec 09, 2007 5:17 pm

That was a really bullish STDS. Didn't see one conservative term in it.
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#16 Postby Vortex » Sun Dec 09, 2007 5:21 pm

looks like PR will get 40-50 mph and some very squally weather. Keep us posted Luis.
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Re:

#17 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 09, 2007 5:22 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:That was a really bullish STDS. Didn't see one conservative term in it.


When you see the satellite images and loops I don't see how the STDS can be bullish.
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Re: Re:

#18 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Dec 09, 2007 5:34 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Cyclone1 wrote:That was a really bullish STDS. Didn't see one conservative term in it.


When you see the satellite images and loops I don't see how the STDS can be bullish.


Heh, true, but what I meant to say was, it looks like they really expect development out of this.
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Re: INVEST 94L= Special Tropical Disturbance Statement

#19 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 09, 2007 5:35 pm

Let me get this straight...

This is December right?

Between the record high temperatures here and this, you could have fooled me. :roll:
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Re: INVEST 94L Models Thread

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 09, 2007 5:37 pm

12z NOGAPS

NOGAPS shows a weak low tracking towards Yucatan.

12z CMC

The Canadian as always is the most bullish of the models.It also tracks towards Yucatan.

12z EURO

The 12z EURO has it in the Bahamas in 72 hours.
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