OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#961 Postby flwxwatcher » Sat Dec 15, 2007 10:45 am

Good grief.. J.B. is at it again , he is ripping the TPC and says OLGA should still be classified. :break:
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Re: Remnant low of Ex Olga : Discussions & Images

#962 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 15, 2007 11:05 am

fact789 wrote:
Category 5 wrote:This thing is likely done, but I'm not going to officially declare it dead until I get an answer from Coredesat's magic 8ball. :D


ROFL!!!


Hey! I use the magic 8-ball for all my forecasts:

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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#963 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 15, 2007 11:06 am

flwxwatcher wrote:Good grief.. J.B. is at it again , he is ripping the TPC and says OLGA should still be classified. :break:


That's because he has been forecasting it to be an intensifying TS while crossing Florida all week.
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#964 Postby Blown Away » Sat Dec 15, 2007 11:19 am

JB thnks it should be classified rate now? Come on! Wxman57 are we going to get breezy conditions from Olga remnants in SFL?
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#965 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 15, 2007 11:48 am

Image

Watch out for Olga. Really, watch out because I can't see it!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#966 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 15, 2007 11:54 am

Blown_away wrote:JB thnks it should be classified right now? Come on! Wxman57 are we going to get breezy conditions from Olga remnants in SFL?


Yes, he found a ship well northeast of the swirl reporting a 34kt SE wind, so I would assume he thinks it is a TS now. It's clearly a bad ship observation, but he has his mind made up that Olga is still a TD/TS so he's oblivious to common sense.

Here's a recent surface plot and satellite. The circled ob is the one in question. It's twice as high as any other observation. Also note the central Gulf buoy in the "spiral band" of Olga that has a wind blowing away from Olga. Finally, note that the ship in question is reporting a pressure of 1012.5mb at a distance of 180nm from Olga's center. To produce that kind of wind so far from the center, Olga's central Pressure would have to be very VERY low, perhaps under 990mb (I didn't work out the gradient wind precisely). So it's a bogus ob that JB chooses to believe rather than the 10-15kt winds around it. He sees only what he wants to see.

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#967 Postby RL3AO » Sat Dec 15, 2007 12:15 pm

It has cracked the top 5 for best looking systems in the GOM this year! Congrats Olga's remnants.

1. Humberto
2. Barry
3. Erin
4. Olga's remnants
5. TD 10 :wink:
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Re:

#968 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Dec 15, 2007 1:16 pm

RL3AO wrote:It has cracked the top 5 for best looking systems in the GOM this year! Congrats Olga's remnants.

1. Humberto
2. Barry
3. Erin
4. Olga's remnants
5. TD 10 :wink:


You did hear about Lorenzo?
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Re: Re:

#969 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 15, 2007 1:27 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:It has cracked the top 5 for best looking systems in the GOM this year! Congrats Olga's remnants.

1. Humberto
2. Barry
3. Erin
4. Olga's remnants
5. TD 10 :wink:


You did hear about Lorenzo?


Lorenzo was in the Bay of Campece, as were Dean & Felix.
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#970 Postby Frank2 » Sat Dec 15, 2007 1:34 pm

The swirl does present very well on the VIS photo, that's for sure - more so than during the past couple of days (though it seems to be merging with the pre-frontal trough/squall line as we speak)...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh2.html

still, it's just a swirl, but, my guess is that perhaps the NHC might produce a statement later today that mentions this feature, just to let all know that it's just a weak remnant low...
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#971 Postby cpdaman » Sat Dec 15, 2007 1:55 pm

Blown_away wrote: Wxman57 are we going to get breezy conditions from Olga remnants in SFL?


have you stepped outside?

i was just down on the beach and the sand completely covered my blanket. SSE winds at about 20 gusts 24-25 IMO

OLGA OLGA OLGA lol
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#972 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Dec 15, 2007 1:59 pm

Winds up to 15mph here.
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Re: Re:

#973 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Dec 15, 2007 2:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:You did hear about Lorenzo?


Lorenzo was in the Bay of Campece, as were Dean & Felix.


Hmm, maybe I need to brush up on my geography. Always thought the BOC was an extension of the GOM. Totally forgot about Dean and didn't realize Felix had any semblance of a LLC in the BOC/GOM. -

a. Synoptic History http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL132007_Lorenzo.pdf

Lorenzo formed from a tropical wave that moved across the west coast of Africa around 11 September. Convection associated with the wave increased in the western Caribbean on 21 September, and the northern portion of the wave crossed the Yucatan Peninsula and entered the southern Gulf of Mexico. On 24 September, the wave spawned a small surface low in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

The Bay of Campeche (Spanish: Bahía de Campeche) (sometimes confused with Sonda de Campeche) is the southern bight of the Gulf of Mexico. - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Campeche
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Re: Re:

#974 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 15, 2007 2:11 pm

Yes the BoC is an extension of the Gulf of Mexico. But I got the impression that the original poster meant the Gulf excluding the BoC. In any case, Olga is the least impressive system. TD 10 at least had decent convection.

Stratosphere747 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:You did hear about Lorenzo?


Lorenzo was in the Bay of Campece, as were Dean & Felix.


Hmm, maybe I need to brush up on my geography. Always thought the BOC was an extension of the GOM. Totally forgot about Dean and didn't realize Felix had any semblance of a LLC in the BOC/GOM. -

a. Synoptic History http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL132007_Lorenzo.pdf

Lorenzo formed from a tropical wave that moved across the west coast of Africa around 11 September. Convection associated with the wave increased in the western Caribbean on 21 September, and the northern portion of the wave crossed the Yucatan Peninsula and entered the southern Gulf of Mexico. On 24 September, the wave spawned a small surface low in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

The Bay of Campeche (Spanish: Bahía de Campeche) (sometimes confused with Sonda de Campeche) is the southern bight of the Gulf of Mexico. - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Campeche
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#975 Postby Blown Away » Sat Dec 15, 2007 2:19 pm

Remnant Olga starting to turn towards SFL, Olga reminds me of a Wilma track minus the 125mph winds. :D
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#976 Postby MGC » Sat Dec 15, 2007 2:23 pm

Florida is darn lucky this is December and not August.....MGC
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Re: Re:

#977 Postby HurricaneRobert » Sat Dec 15, 2007 2:24 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Ex-Olga still looks very impressive considering it is mid December and the circulation is now near Cancun: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

One thing is for sure though: Thank god we didn't see a storm take a similar track to this one during peak season! It would have been a GOM target for sure and would have had much more favorable conditions to work with.

There was one storm. You forgot Humberto's rapid, unprecedented pre-shore intensification from a low to a high-end Category 1 hurricane. It struck Texas during night, too. Additionally, Lorenzo was a similar Mexican counterpart. Humberto has been underemphasized on these boards. Additionally, it is surprising that Lorenzo has been rarely mentioned, especially when you consider numerous people who say it is important to focus on impacts in other countries.

You rarely see pre-shore intensification to a major hurricane, but it does take place (i.e. 1935).

"Near shore" implies a position within ~100 miles of any land mass.


It wasn't a major hurricane, and neither are these, but they were all going through rapid intensification near the coastline. From the past 20 years: Jose (2005), Claudette (2003), Charley (1998), Jerry (1989), Debby (1988)
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#978 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Dec 15, 2007 3:08 pm

A Few Clouds
80°F
(27°C)
Humidity: 74 %
Wind Speed: S 20 G 24 MPH
Barometer: 29.89" (1011.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 71°F (22°C)
Heat Index: 83°F (28°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#979 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Dec 15, 2007 4:01 pm

WOW nice swirl to that remaining low. That is a great looking
low.
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#980 Postby Coredesat » Sat Dec 15, 2007 4:24 pm

It's not a great looking low. The circulation is gradually becoming diffuse as it gets picked up by the front.
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