OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#981 Postby Sanibel » Sat Dec 15, 2007 4:30 pm

Still it is an interesting "naked" system that is taking a track we all feared earlier. Too far west to bail us out with any rain. If this formed in August and followed Felix and Dean's trend we could have seen another category five rip the Caymans and turn up into the Gulf after ravaging Cancun.
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#982 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Dec 15, 2007 4:49 pm

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 445 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF VALDOSTA
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER SOUTHEAST AL/FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST GA AHEAD OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#983 Postby Blown Away » Sat Dec 15, 2007 6:10 pm

Sanibel wrote:Still it is an interesting "naked" system that is taking a track we all feared earlier. Too far west to bail us out with any rain. If this formed in August and followed Felix and Dean's trend we could have seen another category five rip the Caymans and turn up into the Gulf after ravaging Cancun.


Building some convection and moving NE rate towards you Sanibel. Now that Olga is moving more NE with the flow of the upper level winds is that allowing the convection to build rather then getting blown off?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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Coredesat

#984 Postby Coredesat » Sat Dec 15, 2007 6:41 pm

Actually, the convection is nearly straight east-west lines - a classic indicator of strong shear. The convection is probably firing due to instability ahead of the front.
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#985 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Dec 15, 2007 7:04 pm

I rarely see naked circulations from hurricanes in the Atlantic. I seem to see it more often in EPAC.
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#986 Postby RL3AO » Sat Dec 15, 2007 7:05 pm

Hey! Finally something to do with severe wx for the SPC.
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#987 Postby cpdaman » Sat Dec 15, 2007 7:33 pm

remember when that jet max was humming out of the SW w/ wilma

and it juiced her up to a cat 3 in no time?

i wonder if this shear will have a intensifying result on Olga's ghost since she will be moving more in line with the shear= less relative shear although temps are border line in GOM and a bit low near the coast.

more rain for FL and some squalls likely late
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#988 Postby tolakram » Sat Dec 15, 2007 7:46 pm

Image

So is Olga responsible for that moisture plume hitting Alabama and Georgia? Interesting situation.
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#989 Postby Blown Away » Sat Dec 15, 2007 8:06 pm

Convection starting to blow up with Olga/front!
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#990 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Dec 15, 2007 8:17 pm

This RAIN will help some with the DROUGHT in Georgia!!!! FINALLY.
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#991 Postby flashflood » Sat Dec 15, 2007 9:09 pm

Blown_away wrote:Convection starting to blow up with Olga/front!


Yes, and quite nicely at this time with really deep convection indicating developing instability just west of FL. I'd prefer if it were further east though because sometimes the convection dies out while moving onshore if it peaks well offshore. I would think it will hold together since it's convection is increasing and moving toward FL at a good pace. Hopefully much of FL gets a decent rain event out of this.
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#992 Postby Rainband » Sat Dec 15, 2007 9:11 pm

The "low" in the gulf went from 1009 to 1007mb in the last hour.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#993 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Dec 15, 2007 9:33 pm

Looks like a the remnants of Olga are getting a little juice from being in the favorable region of the jet. On the other hand, while people were saying earlier that its circulation looked distorted, but it looked like it had a pretty tight lookin swirl to me. Right up throuh this morning.

Now that it has a lot of convection again, now, it finally looks like the circulation is really getting distorted. It is making the transition from a not quite tropical cyclone to a much more inmpressive looking not-quite subtropical cyclone, undergoing transition to a fully extra-tropical low.
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#994 Postby Blown Away » Sat Dec 15, 2007 9:40 pm

Wouldn't the Olga remnants qualify as an invest with all the convection?
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#995 Postby Coredesat » Sat Dec 15, 2007 9:42 pm

Blown_away wrote:Wouldn't the Olga remnants qualify as an invest with all the convection?


Absolutely not. Low pressure areas that are being absorbed by fronts tend to fire convection due to unstable air ahead of the front. This is basically Olga's spectacular explosive death you're seeing on the IR4 image.

In any case, watch the shortwave loop (best way to see circulations at night). The circulation totally collapses by the end of it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#996 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Dec 15, 2007 9:46 pm

Coredesat wrote:
Blown_away wrote:Wouldn't the Olga remnants qualify as an invest with all the convection?


Absolutely not. Low pressure areas that are being absorbed by fronts tend to fire convection due to unstable air ahead of the front. This is basically Olga's spectacular explosive death you're seeing on the IR4 image.


I'd guess its divergence and widescale upward motion ahead of the approaching trough, but the end result, that it is being absorbed into the front and the larger winter storm, is the same.
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#997 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Dec 15, 2007 9:49 pm

Tornado Watch for C&NFL, S GA, S SC, SE AL.
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Coredesat

#998 Postby Coredesat » Sat Dec 15, 2007 10:05 pm

Seeing as this is no longer Olga causing these effects, I think this thread should be archived.
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#999 Postby Blown Away » Sat Dec 15, 2007 10:05 pm

Coredesat wrote:
Blown_away wrote:Wouldn't the Olga remnants qualify as an invest with all the convection?


Absolutely not. Low pressure areas that are being absorbed by fronts tend to fire convection due to unstable air ahead of the front. This is basically Olga's spectacular explosive death you're seeing on the IR4 image.

In any case, watch the shortwave loop (best way to see circulations at night). The circulation totally collapses by the end of it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html


I will, thanks. What's left of Olga's center looks to be moving more ENE and speeding up!
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Re: GOM: Olga's remnants : Discussions & Images

#1000 Postby Coredesat » Sat Dec 15, 2007 10:07 pm

Blown_away wrote:I will, thanks. What's left of Olga's center looks to be moving more ENE and speeding up!


...wow. Just. Wow. I have no words for how I reacted when I saw that comment.
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