Tropical Disturbance 04R ex-CELINA

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Coredesat

Tropical Disturbance 04R ex-CELINA

#1 Postby Coredesat » Wed Dec 12, 2007 7:46 am

Forecast to become a tropical depression in 12 hours. Looks pretty good.

WTIO20 FMEE 121227
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 12/12/2007
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 1/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 12/12/2007 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 4 (0420072008) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 70.6E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 160 NM AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO
300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

25 KT WINDS AROUND THE CENTER, STRONG GUST UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2007/12/13 AT 00 UTC:
13.7S / 70.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H, VALID 2007/12/13 AT 12 UTC:
13.9S / 69.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTWESTWARDS MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT SLOWLY STRENGHENS ...=

Image
Last edited by Coredesat on Thu Dec 20, 2007 2:46 am, edited 7 times in total.
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#2 Postby Coredesat » Wed Dec 12, 2007 7:47 am

A little flub by the JTWC... :lol:

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.5S 69.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 120415Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BAND
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
DISTURBANCE IS UNDER FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN LIMITED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DISPLACED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO POOR.
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#3 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 12, 2007 7:52 am

WTIO30 FMEE 121248

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/4/20072008
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 4 (0420072008)

2.A POSITION 2007/12/12 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 70.6E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/12/13 00 UTC: 13.7S/70.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2007/12/13 12 UTC: 13.9S/69.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/12/14 00 UTC: 14.2S/69.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2007/12/14 12 UTC: 14.5S/68.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2007/12/15 00 UTC: 15.1S/67.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/12/15 12 UTC: 15.8S/66.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CHAGOS HAS IMPROVED ON
ORGANIZATION TODAY BASED ON PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. REGULAR
ADVISORY WILL NOW BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTICE
THAT PRESENT POSITION AND MOTION HAD HIGH INCERTITUDE, AS THE CENTER IS
STILL VERY DIFFICU
LT TO LOCALIZE ON THIS EARLY STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. EQUATORWARD CONVERGENCE
IS GOOD BUT IS WEAKER ON THE TRADEWIND SIDE. A MID-LAT TROUGH THAT SHOULD
PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW
CONVERGENCE ON THIS SIDE.
THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY WINDSHEAR (SOUTH OF THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF 10S). AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS, SHEAR
SHOULD LESSEN. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL MARQUED (SEEN WITH THE CIRRUS
EXPANSION) ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWESTWARD SUBTROPICAL JET.

PRESENT GUIDANCE CALLS FOR SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION.
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#4 Postby Coredesat » Wed Dec 12, 2007 5:41 pm

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 70.6E TO 14.8S 67.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 121800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6S 70.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8S
69.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 70.1E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 121714Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A TROUGH SOUTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE DISTURBANCE
IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUST-
AINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC, AND THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
132230Z.

Image
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Re: Zone of Disturbed Weather 04R (96S - TCFA issued)

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 13, 2007 4:53 am

Image

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/122221Z DEC 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS31 PGTW 130900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 68.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 68.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.9S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.0S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.0S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.1S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 68.7E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 122221Z
DEC 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 122230 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
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#6 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 13, 2007 5:15 am

WTIO30 FMEE 130613

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/4/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (0420072008)

2.A POSITION 2007/12/13 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6S / 68.6E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/12/13 18 UTC: 14.8S/68.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2007/12/14 06 UTC: 15.0S/68.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/12/14 18 UTC: 15.2S/67.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2007/12/15 06 UTC: 15.6S/67.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2007/12/15 18 UTC: 16.1S/66.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2007/12/16 06 UTC: 16.3S/64.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.0
THE LLCC IS STILL BADLY DEFINED AT THIS EARLY STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT.
LAST NIGHT QUIKSCAT SWATH AND 0028Z MICROWAVE NOAA15 SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION FROM THE MAIN LLCC TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IS POORLY FAVORABLE.
IN LOW LEVELS, EQUATORWARD CONVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT IS WEAKER ON THE
TRADEWIND SIDE. A MID-LAT TROUGH THAT SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SHOULD MAINTAIN POOR INFLOW ON THIS SIDE.
IN HIGH LEVEL, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHWESTWARDS SUBTROPICAL JET.
EQUATORWARD, EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WHINDSHEAR SEEMS TO DECREASE
SINCE THE RECENT PAST HOURS (SEE THE CIRRUS EXPANSION NORTHWARDS) .
NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TO LET THE SYSTEM IN THE SAME AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS UNDERGOING OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS IN THE MID-LEVELS
(WESTERLIES IN THE NORTH, SOUTHEASTERLIES IN THE EAST AND NORTHWESTERLIES
IN THE SOUTH).
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT LIGHTLY INTENSIFIES AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE MORE
WESTWARDS ACCELERATING.

Now officially a perturbation tropicale/tropical disturbance.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 13, 2007 8:01 am

Image

13/0830 UTC 13.7S 69.8E T2.5/2.5 96S -- South Indian Ocean
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#8 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 13, 2007 9:23 am

WTIO30 FMEE 131210

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/4/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (0420072008)

2.A POSITION 2007/12/13 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 69.8E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/12/14 00 UTC: 13.8S/69.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/12/14 12 UTC: 13.9S/69.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/12/15 00 UTC: 14.2S/69.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2007/12/15 12 UTC: 14.6S/68.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2007/12/16 00 UTC: 14.9S/66.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2007/12/16 12 UTC: 15.5S/65.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.0
WITHIN THE ELONGATED CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION MENTIONNED IN THE 0600Z
WARNING AND SHOWED BY 0106UTC QUIKSCAT SWATH, THE SECONDARY CENTER
MONITORED NORTHEASTWARD OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BECOMED THE
MAIN. IT IS TOTALLY EXPOSED WITH A BETTER DEFINED VORTEX.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IS POORLY FAVORABLE.
IN LOW LEVELS, EQUATORWARD CONVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT IS WEAKER ON THE
TRADEWIND SIDE. A MID-LAT TROUGH THAT SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SHOULD MAINTAIN POOR INFLOW ON THIS SIDE.
IN HIGH LEVEL, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHWESTWARDS SUBTROPICAL JET.
EQUATORWARD, EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WHINDSHEAR REMAINS MODERATE BUT
SEEMS TO DECREASE SINCE THE RECENT PAST HOURS (SEE THE CIRRUS EXPANSION
NORTHWARDS) .
NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TO LET THE SYSTEM IN THE SAME AREA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDERGOING OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS IN THE MID-LEVELS
(WESTERLIES IN THE NORTH, SOUTHEASTERLIES IN THE EAST AND NORTHWESTERLIES
IN THE SOUTH).
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY AND THEN PROGRESSIVELY
ACCELERATING TOWARDS A LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
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#9 Postby wyq614 » Thu Dec 13, 2007 10:56 am

JTWC给06S35KT的强度,但是留尼汪岛只给25KT。预报也大有不同,到底哪个更可靠呢?

According to JTWC, 06S now has a intensity of 35kt, but Reunion says 25kt, and the forecasts are totally different, which is more reliable, though?
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#10 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 13, 2007 11:10 am

25 kt is a 10-minute average, remember that.
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#11 Postby wyq614 » Thu Dec 13, 2007 11:35 am

那是不是意味着我们应该更相信后者呢?

Does it mean that we should rely the latter more?
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Re:

#12 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Dec 13, 2007 5:53 pm

wyq614 wrote:那是不是意味着我们应该更相信后者呢?

Does it mean that we should rely the latter more?


Depends on how you want to compare (since that is the only source that provides numbers to our standards), but the JTWC is unofficial.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance 04R (06S)

#13 Postby P.K. » Fri Dec 14, 2007 2:15 am

WTIO30 FMEE 140637

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/4/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (0420072008)

2.A POSITION 2007/12/14 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0S / 69.6E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 045 SE: 045 SO: 045 NO: 045

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/12/14 18 UTC: 14.3S/69.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2007/12/15 06 UTC: 14.6S/68.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/12/15 18 UTC: 15.1S/67.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2007/12/16 06 UTC: 15.7S/66.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2007/12/16 18 UTC: 16.5S/65.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2007/12/17 06 UTC: 17.2S/63.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5-

THE LLCC IS EXPOSED AND THE LOCATION HAS A GOOD FIX. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES
A MODERATE NORTHESARLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WHICH EJECTS DEEP CONVECTION
SOUTHWESTWARDS. NEVERTHELESS, THIS LLCC SHOWS A LIGHLY IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION, WHAT EXPLAINS THE UPGRADED INTENSITY TO THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STAGE WITH NE
AR GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.

DUE TO THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND THE STANDSTILL OF THE SYSTEM,
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION. MOREOVER, THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS POOR DUE TO WAKE TRADEWIND INFLOW (TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH), AND ONLY MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

THE SYSTEM REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES, SOUTH OF
THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES NORTHWARD (WELL ESTABLISHED UP TO 400 HPA) AND
A SUBTROPICAL MIDLEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD. BEYOND THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY "TAKE THE LEAD" ON THE
CONTRIBU
TION OF THE STEERING FLOW, WHAT SHOULD ALLOW A FASTER SOUTHWESTWARDS
MOTION, AS A LIGHT INTENSIFICATION DUE TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
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#14 Postby wyq614 » Sat Dec 15, 2007 12:02 am

离留尼汪岛和罗德里格斯岛越来越近了。

It is closer and closer to Reunion and Rodrigues Island.
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#15 Postby wyq614 » Sun Dec 16, 2007 11:48 am

风暴还没消散呢,怎么就停止讨论呢?发个强度顶一下这个帖。
The storm has not dissipated yet, why do we stop discussing it?? I'll post an intensity record to keep the post up.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 DEC 2007 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 17:07:59 S Lon : 64:09:44 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 / 998.0mb/ 37.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.2 2.5 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb

Center Temp : -0.5C Cloud Region Temp : -34.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.40 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 16:55:48 S Lon: 63:33:36 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Re: Tropical Depression 04R (06S)

#16 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 16, 2007 2:58 pm

Image

Looking better.
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Re: Tropical Depression 04R (06S)

#17 Postby RattleMan » Mon Dec 17, 2007 2:05 am

525
WTIO20 FMEE 170612
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/12/2007 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 17/12/2007 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CELINA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 62.0E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP
TO 280 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2007/12/17 AT 18 UTC:
20.4S / 60.3E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2007/12/18 AT 06 UTC:
21.3S / 58.8E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS TOWARDS A TROUGH
SHIFTING IN ITS SOUTHWEST
IT HAS INTENSIFIED DURING LAST NIGHT TO REACH MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND
HAS BEEN IN CONSEQUENCE NAMED 'CELINA' BY THE MAURTIUS METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICES TODAY AT 0430UTC.
CELINA IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING RAPIDLY SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND THEN RECURVING LINKED TO THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES.
SYSTEM HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTING TO BE LESS FAVOURABLE WITH A WEAK POLAR INFLOW
LINKED TO THE SHIFTING TROUGH IN ITS SOUTH AND A NOT SUFFISANT ENERGETIC
POTENTIAL ON COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
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#18 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Dec 17, 2007 3:07 pm

They aren't forecasting much from this though.
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#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Dec 17, 2007 3:09 pm

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 DEC 2007 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 21:04:13 S Lon : 60:14:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 989.2mb/ 49.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.2 3.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.0mb

Center Temp : -60.4C Cloud Region Temp : -63.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.50 ARC in BLACK

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Doesn't look bad at all right now. I'd say 45 kt (1-min)/992mb right now.
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 17, 2007 3:55 pm

Image

Going down.
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