Tropical Disturbance 04R ex-CELINA

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CrazyC83
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#21 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Dec 17, 2007 9:18 pm

Yep, clearly on a weakening trend now.
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#22 Postby wyq614 » Thu Dec 20, 2007 1:22 am

按照它的强度,要不是它接近毛里求斯,也许它就不应该被命名。

Considering its intensity, if it hadn't been approaching Mauritius, it even wouldn't get a name.
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Coredesat

#23 Postby Coredesat » Thu Dec 20, 2007 2:47 am

Still being warned on.

WTIO30 FMEE 200047

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/4/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (EX-CELINA)

2.A POSITION 2007/12/20 AT 0000 UTC :
22.6S / 56.5E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/12/20 12 UTC: 22.6S/55.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/12/21 00 UTC: 22.3S/53.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2007/12/21 12 UTC: 22.2S/52.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2007/12/22 00 UTC: 22.8S/51.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
60H: 2007/12/22 12 UTC: 23.4S/51.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
72H: 2007/12/23 00 UTC: 24.0S/50.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0.
THE LLCC IS TOTALLY EXPOSED WITH A POOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESURE REBUILT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD MAKE THE RESIDUAL VORTEX
CURVE WESTNORTHWESTWARDS, BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS, TURNING AROUND
HIGH PRESSURES.
THE PRESENCE OF A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPLAINS THE WEAKENING OF THE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, BUT ALSO A POOR UPPER LEVEL DICERGENCE.
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#24 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Dec 20, 2007 4:01 pm

Yep, this may make it to Madagascar as a tropical cyclone at this rate...
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#25 Postby wyq614 » Thu Dec 20, 2007 11:25 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Yep, this may make it to Madagascar as a tropical cyclone at this rate...


你是说它在向马达加斯加行进的过程中还会加强?
Do you mean it will intensify while approaching Malagasy coast?
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Re: Tropical Disturbance 04R ex-CELINA

#26 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 20, 2007 11:31 pm

21/0230 UTC 21.2S 52.9E T2.0/2.0 CELINA -- South Indian Ocean

Image

PERTURBATION TROPICALE EX-CELINA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 998 HPA.
POSITION LE 21 DECEMBRE A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 21.2 SUD / 53.2 EST
(VINGT ET UN DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 210 KM A L'OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST A 11 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 21.8S/50.7E
DEPR. SE COMBLANT, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 23.4S/48.8E
DEPR. SE COMBLANT, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 25.2S/47.1E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 10H30 LOCALES

Image
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Coredesat

#27 Postby Coredesat » Fri Dec 21, 2007 3:18 am

WTIO30 FMEE 210702 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/4/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (EX-CELINA)

2.A POSITION 2007/12/21 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 52.5E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/12/21 18 UTC: 21.4S/51.4E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/12/22 06 UTC: 22.0S/50.2E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP.
36H: 2007/12/22 18 UTC: 22.8S/49.3E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP.
48H: 2007/12/23 06 UTC: 23.7S/48.2E, MAX WIND=020KT , DISSIPATED.
60H: 2007/12/23 18 UTC: FILLING UP.
72H: 2007/12/24 06 UTC: OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T= 1.5 CI=2.0-.
THE TRACK HAS RECURVED WESTWARDS LAST NIGHT. IT SHOULD TRACK WESTWARDS
THEN WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTHWARDS.
THIS RESIDUAL SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTEAST OF MADAGASCAR.
SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 21, 2007 10:37 pm

22/0230 UTC 20.6S 50.4E T1.5/1.5 CELINA -- South Indian Ocean

Image
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