Invest 92B - E of Sri Lanka

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CrazyC83
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Invest 92B - E of Sri Lanka

#1 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Dec 12, 2007 11:44 am

Invest in the southern Bay of Bengal just east of Sri Lanka. Doesn't look too bad.
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#2 Postby wyq614 » Wed Dec 12, 2007 12:17 pm

对,我有每小时更新一次的桌面云图,能够看得到92B的发展情况。

Yes, I have a software that put the hourly-updated satellite image on the desktop, through which i can monitor the development of 92B.
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#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Dec 12, 2007 4:50 pm

12/2030 UTC 7.1N 83.9E T2.0/2.0 92B -- Bay of Bengal
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Coredesat

#4 Postby Coredesat » Wed Dec 12, 2007 5:43 pm

Doesn't look bad for a system in the Bay of Bengal in December:

Image

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 84.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.6N 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTION FLARING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
121229Z QUICKSCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIPHERAL WINDS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE
WELL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
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#5 Postby wyq614 » Thu Dec 13, 2007 1:49 am

中国风迷的意见:南部对流缺失,而且受斯里兰卡地形影响,缺失对流不能得到北部对流的补充 。估计系统将会维持强度扫过斯里兰卡和印度南部,不会有大的发展。

Here's what Chinese typhoon trackers guess: It lacks convection in south quadrant, and under the interaction with the Sri Lankan terrain, convection cannot be supplied in its northern quadrant, so we estimate that the system persist its current intensity and track along Sri Lanka and the Southern Indian coast, with no development.
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#6 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 13, 2007 9:24 am

PART-II : THE LOPAR OVER SW-BAY OFF SE COAST OF SRI-LANKA
NOW LIES AS WELL MARKED LOPAR OVER THE SAME AREA(.)
ASSOCIATED CYCIR EXTENDS UTO 3.6 KMS ASL (.)SYSTEM
IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION (.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA (.)
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Re:

#7 Postby wyq614 » Thu Dec 13, 2007 11:41 pm

Chacor wrote:PART-II : THE LOPAR OVER SW-BAY OFF SE COAST OF SRI-LANKA
NOW LIES AS WELL MARKED LOPAR OVER THE SAME AREA(.)
ASSOCIATED CYCIR EXTENDS UTO 3.6 KMS ASL (.)SYSTEM
IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION (.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA (.)


相反地,它降级为POOR了。
On the contrary, it has downgraded to poor.
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#8 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 14, 2007 1:12 am

The IMD is the official source here, and not the JTWC. IMD still thinking it will become a depression.
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#9 Postby wyq614 » Fri Dec 14, 2007 12:36 pm

能提供一下IMD热带扰动预报的网址么?

Could you tell me the website of the IMD tropical disturbance report?
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Re:

#10 Postby RattleMan » Fri Dec 14, 2007 2:58 pm

wyq614 wrote:能提供一下IMD热带扰动预报的网址么?

Could you tell me the website of the IMD tropical disturbance report?

You can find tropical releases from http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.htm and http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.htm .
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#11 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 14, 2007 8:27 pm

Those are the advisories; remember that they also issue outlooks and high seas warnings.
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Re:

#12 Postby wyq614 » Fri Dec 14, 2007 11:39 pm

Chacor wrote:Those are the advisories; remember that they also issue outlooks and high seas warnings.


现在我看不到关于92B的记录了。
Now I can see nothing about 92B.
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#13 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 14, 2007 11:43 pm

IMD no longer expecting a depression in their 0900Z (14 Dec) high seas. I hate it how IMD never issues anything on time.
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#14 Postby wyq614 » Fri Dec 14, 2007 11:58 pm

怪不得呢。。但是现在好像又出来一个93B,中国论坛已经开帖了。孟加拉湾在我的桌面云图的左下角,充满了云,好像被放在了大蒸锅里。

No wonder... But now it seems that an Invest 93B appeared. The typhoon forum in China has already started a threat for it. The Bay of Bengal is right at the southwestern edge of my desktop satellite image. Now it is filled by all types of clouds, as if it were steamed.
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Coredesat

#15 Postby Coredesat » Sat Dec 15, 2007 6:15 am

93B seems to have appeared just SW of where 92B once was, and is described as a LOPAR in the marine bulletin (weakened from a well-marked LOPAR). What little is there looks very sheared.

Image
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