South Indian Ocean: TD DAMA (TC 07S)

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HURAKAN
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South Indian Ocean: TD DAMA (TC 07S)

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 17, 2007 10:29 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.3S 88.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM WEST OF COCOS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
AND A 170426Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION BANDING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
EAST IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT ALSO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

Image

Image

17/1430 UTC 10.7S 87.1E T2.0/2.0 97S -- South Indian Ocean
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 17, 2007 5:52 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S
88.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 88.1E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM WEST OF
COCOS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 171133Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
DISTURBANCE HAS ALSO MOVED UNDER AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE CONVECTION TO FORM CLOSER
TO THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

17/2030 UTC 12.1S 86.7E T2.0/2.0 97S -- South Indian Ocean

Image

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#3 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Dec 17, 2007 6:07 pm

Wow, That looks good.
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 17, 2007 9:56 pm

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98S [NORTH], 97S [SOUTH].
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 18, 2007 6:18 am

Image

WTXS21 PGTW 180530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 88.1E TO 17.1S 85.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 180000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 87.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S
88.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 87.8E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE CENTER, AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME MORE COINCIDENT WITH THE LLCC, PROVIDING EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND INCREASING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190530Z.//
NNNN
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 18, 2007 6:32 am

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#7 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 18, 2007 7:12 am

WTIO30 FMEE 181126

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/5/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5

2.A POSITION 2007/12/18 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 84.4E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/12/19 00 UTC: 14.1S/83.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2007/12/19 12 UTC: 14.9S/83.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2007/12/20 00 UTC: 15.7S/83.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2007/12/20 12 UTC: 17.3S/84.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/12/21 00 UTC: 18.6S/86.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/12/21 12 UTC: 19.9S/87.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+.

THIS SYSTEM EXISTS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
THE TWO LOWS IDENTIFIED YESTERDAY ARE NOW CLEARLY ISOLATED ONE FROM
EACHOTHER, AND THE MORE SOUTH ONE IS DEEPENING, IN PHASIS WITH DEEP
CONVECTION WHICH IS RAPIDLY ORGANISING, MAINLY DUE TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTI
CAL WINDSHEAR.

IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN, AND TRACK GLOBALLY
SOUTHWARDS AS IT INTENSIFIES, BEFORE WEKENING OVER COOL SST SOUTH OF 18
SOUTH.
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 18, 2007 8:31 am

Latest:

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#9 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 18, 2007 8:42 am

Image

Could be named by Perth if it remains strong enough.
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Re: South Indian Ocean: Invest 97S: TCFA

#10 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 18, 2007 10:46 am

Image

WTXS32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180521ZDEC2007//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 13.5S 84.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 84.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.7S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.5S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.3S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.2S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 84.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND A
180037Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS WITHIN THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITH UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALING A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), GREATLY ENHANCING OUTFLOW ALOFT. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SECOND, FULLY EXPOSED LLCC
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TC 07S. THIS SECOND
LLCC COULD EXERT SOME INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF TC 07S, BUT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE A STRONG EFFECT. TC 07S WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO
THE WEST BEFORE TURNING MORE POLEWARD AFTER TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 180521ZDEC2007
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 180530) MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z
AND 191500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CELINA) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW 180300).
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Re: South Indian Ocean: TC 07S

#11 Postby P.K. » Tue Dec 18, 2007 2:02 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 181838

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/5/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5

2.A POSITION 2007/12/18 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 84.5E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 045 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 045

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/12/19 06 UTC: 14.6S/84.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2007/12/19 18 UTC: 15.3S/84.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2007/12/20 06 UTC: 16.4S/84.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/12/20 18 UTC: 17.5S/85.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/12/21 06 UTC: 18.8S/87.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2007/12/21 18 UTC: 20.4S/89.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
THIS SYSTEM EXISTS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
THE TWO LOWS IDENTIFIED YESTERDAY ARE NOW CLEARLY ISOLATED ONE FROM
EACHOTHER, AND THE MORE SOUTH ONE IS DEEPENING, IN PHASIS WITH DEEP
CONVECTION WHICH IS RAPIDLY ORGANISING, MAINLY DUE TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTI
CAL WINDSHEAR.
IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN, AND TRACK GLOBALLY
SOUTHWARDS AS IT INTENSIFIES, BEFORE WEKENING OVER COOL SST SOUTH OF 18
SOUTH.
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Re: South Indian Ocean: TD 05 (TC 07S)

#12 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 18, 2007 2:26 pm

Image

Image

Looking better.
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 18, 2007 3:38 pm

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Re: South Indian Ocean: TD 05 (TC 07S)

#14 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 18, 2007 9:11 pm

Image

Image

Continuous to organize.
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#15 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Dec 18, 2007 9:13 pm

looks pretty good and getting better.
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#16 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Dec 18, 2007 9:44 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 DEC 2007 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 13:53:26 S Lon : 82:01:13 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 / 995.8mb/ 37.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.6 2.8 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -84.6C Cloud Region Temp : -81.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Should be Dama soon at this rate.
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Re: South Indian Ocean: TD 05 (TC 07S)

#17 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 18, 2007 10:42 pm

Image

WTXS32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 82.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 82.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.7S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.0S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.2S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.3S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 81.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND A
181623Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITH UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALING A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), GREATLY ENHANCING OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE LLCC MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TC 07S, IS NO LONGER INFLUENCING THE TRACK OR
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED AS EVIDENCED
IN A 181955Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE. TC 07S WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-
WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASING
INFLUENCE FROM A STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINED BY THE DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z AND 200300Z.
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 18, 2007 10:42 pm

BULLETIN DU 19 DECEMBRE A 04H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET SI AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES,
IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SE TENIR INFORME DE L'EVOLUTION DE
LA SITUATION
*****************************************************


NATURE DES SYSTEMES DEPRESSIONNAIRES TROPICAUX PRESENTS SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


DEPRESSION TROPICALE 05-20072008

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 996 HPA.
POSITION LE 19 DECEMBRE A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 13.9 SUD / 82.9 EST
(TREIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2975 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 16 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 15.8S/82.1E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 18.7S/86E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 20.6S/89.2E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
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HURAKAN
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Re: South Indian Ocean: TD 05 (TC 07S)

#19 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 18, 2007 11:24 pm

18/2030 UTC 13.5S 83.6E T2.5/2.5 07S -- South Indian Ocean

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 DEC 2007 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 13:57:16 S Lon : 81:54:33 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 / 994.6mb/ 39.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.7 3.0 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -82.9C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

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HURAKAN
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Re: South Indian Ocean: TD 05 (TC 07S)

#20 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 18, 2007 11:48 pm

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