South Indian Ocean: TD DAMA (TC 07S)

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Coredesat

#21 Postby Coredesat » Wed Dec 19, 2007 12:26 am

281
TPXS10 PGTW 190011
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (NO NAME)
B. 18/2330Z
C. 13.8S/2
D. 82.4E/4
E. SIX/MET7
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS (18/2330Z)
G. IR/EIR LLCC
38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF 1.00 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A 3.5 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 3.0. DBO MET AND PT.

SCANLIN

As an aside, when was the last time a system previously named by Mauritius crossed into Perth's AOR and was renamed (not the other way around)?
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 19, 2007 6:12 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 DEC 2007 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 14:28:46 S Lon : 81:19:33 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 988.3mb/ 51.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.3 3.5 3.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Center Temp : -72.3C Cloud Region Temp : -74.1C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

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#23 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 19, 2007 7:34 am

Still a TD.
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Re: South Indian Ocean: TD 05 (TC 07S)

#24 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 19, 2007 10:03 am

Image

WTXS32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 14.3S 80.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 80.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.2S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.0S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.1S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.9S 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 80.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON THE NORTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. CURRENT INTEN-
SITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 KNOTS
TO 50 KNOTS, AND THE APPEARANCE OF A BANDING MICROWAVE EYE IN A
190809Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM, BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD
AFTER CROSSING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 24. ENHANCED OUTFLOW WILL
ALLOW THE CONTINUED SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.
NNNN

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Re: South Indian Ocean: TD 05 (TC 07S)

#25 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 19, 2007 10:10 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 DEC 2007 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 14:25:04 S Lon : 80:45:36 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 987.0mb/ 55.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.0mb

Center Temp : -64.7C Cloud Region Temp : -68.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 19, 2007 10:49 am

LOOP:
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Coredesat

#27 Postby Coredesat » Wed Dec 19, 2007 5:11 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 191838

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/5/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5

2.A POSITION 2007/12/19 AT 1800 UTC :
14.5S / 82.0E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 060 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/12/20 06 UTC: 15.4S/81.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2007/12/20 18 UTC: 16.5S/82.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2007/12/21 06 UTC: 17.7S/83.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2007/12/21 18 UTC: 19.0S/84.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2007/12/22 06 UTC: 20.3S/86.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2007/12/22 18 UTC: 21.5S/88.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
LOCATION OF THE LLCC IS ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO SSMI MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY AT
1318Z, WHICH SHOWS A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTIVAL WINDSHEAR.

IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN, AND TRACK GLOBALLY
SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS AS IT INTENSIFIES, BEFORE WEKENING OVER
COOL SST SOUTH OF 18 SOUTH.
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 19, 2007 9:03 pm

Image

19/2030 UTC 15.2S 82.3E T2.0/2.5 07S -- South Indian Ocean
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#29 Postby wyq614 » Thu Dec 20, 2007 1:14 am

好久不见了!中国上不了storm2k了!!我只能先用代理了!!
ps: 我们都认为ADT强度过强了,但是留尼汪也过于保守。

Long time no see!! I cannot log on to storm2k in China!! I'm now using a temporary proxy!!

ps: We Chinese trackers believe that ADT intensity analyze is exaggerating the intensity of 07S, but maybe it should have already got a name now.
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#30 Postby Coredesat » Thu Dec 20, 2007 2:48 am

It probably should have been named early yesterday, if at any time at all. At any rate, it's no longer forecast to become a tropical storm.

WTIO30 FMEE 200634

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/5/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5

2.A POSITION 2007/12/20 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0S / 82.8E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 060 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/12/20 18 UTC: 17.0S/84.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2007/12/21 06 UTC: 18.0S/85.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2007/12/21 18 UTC: 19.0S/87.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2007/12/22 06 UTC: 20.0S/88.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2007/12/22 18 UTC: 20.7S/89.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2007/12/23 06 UTC: 21.7S/88.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS, UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCES OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND A
N APPROACHING SOUTH WEST MID LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE WINDSHEAR HAS MOMENTALY DECREASED IN THE SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT. BUT THE
FORECAST TRACK (AT 24/36 HOURS) LEADS THE SYSTEM WITHIN AN UNFAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH INCREASING WINDSHEAR AND COOLER SSTS
. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN START TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
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#31 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 20, 2007 9:23 am

It's been named. This is now Moderate TS Dama.
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#32 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 20, 2007 9:33 am

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DAMA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 995 HPA.
POSITION LE 20 DECEMBRE A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 17.4 SUD / 83.8 EST
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2960 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST A 22 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 19.7S/86.4E
DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 21.8S/88.6E
EXTRATROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 24.8S/89.5E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE A 22H30

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#33 Postby wyq614 » Thu Dec 20, 2007 10:42 am

可怜啊,得到了名字,但是也活不长了

Now it's got a name, but cannot live much longer. ¡Qué pobre!
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Re: South Indian Ocean: Moderate TS DAMA (TC 07S)

#34 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 20, 2007 11:58 am

20/1500 UTC 17.3S 83.8E T3.0/3.0 DAMA -- South Indian Ocean

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Re: South Indian Ocean: Moderate TS DAMA (TC 07S)

#35 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 20, 2007 12:21 pm

Latest:
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#36 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Dec 20, 2007 12:28 pm

Why is it so elongated?
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Re:

#37 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 20, 2007 12:33 pm

fact789 wrote:Why is it so elongated?


Here my be a clue:

WTXS32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DAMA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 17.5S 84.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 84.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.0S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.6S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.2S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 23.7S 91.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 84.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DAMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 915 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. THE STORM HAS ACCELERATED
SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS APPROACHING
TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT
, BUT THE
NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE STORM WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN BY TAU 36, AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND COOLER,
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.
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Re: South Indian Ocean: Moderate TS DAMA (TC 07S)

#38 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 20, 2007 3:15 pm

Image

Losing organization.
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Re: South Indian Ocean: Moderate TS DAMA (TC 07S)

#39 Postby HurricaneRobert » Thu Dec 20, 2007 3:36 pm

Why do cyclones in that region usually have those big arms?
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#40 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Dec 20, 2007 4:00 pm

Could this be becoming extratropical?
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