NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Melanie (TC 08S)

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HURAKAN
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#101 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 31, 2007 1:41 pm

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#102 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 31, 2007 3:21 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:45 am WDT on Tuesday, 1 January 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Melanie [Category 1] was located at 3 am WDT near 18.8S 111.0E,
that is 475 km northwest of Exmouth and moving west southwest at 6 kilometres
per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Melanie is gradually weakening as it moves on a west
southwesterly track away from the west Pilbara coast. The cyclone is expected to
remain offshore and gales are not expected in coastal communities.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 10 am WDT Tuesday.

________________________________________________________________________

Only of marine interest.
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Coredesat

#103 Postby Coredesat » Tue Jan 01, 2008 6:17 am

AXAU01 APRF 010656
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0655 UTC 01/01/2008
Name: Melanie
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.9S
Longitude: 110.6E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [46 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [213 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/1800: 20.7S 109.6E: 050 [095]: 035 [065]: 990
+24: 02/0600: 21.6S 108.5E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]: 994
+36: 02/1800: 22.0S 107.6E: 100 [185]: 025 [045]: 998
+48: 03/0600: 22.1S 106.8E: 125 [230]: 025 [045]: 1000
+60: 03/1800: 21.4S 106.0E: 155 [285]: 025 [045]: 1002
+72: 04/0600: 20.5S 104.2E: 185 [345]: 025 [045]: 1002
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Melanie has tracked to the south southwest in the past 6-12
hours. The well defined LLCC is sheared from the mid-level circulation with
DT=2.5/3.0 with FT biased towards MET. ASCAT shows near gales about the
circulation confirming weakening is ongoing, although pulsing convection
particularly to the southwest of the centre may prolong gales for the next 12
hours or so. However, the continuing shear, cooler SSTs and a stratocumulus
cloud field to the southwest should see the demise of Melanie within 24 hours.


==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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#104 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 01, 2008 12:28 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1246UTC 1 JANUARY 2008

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Melanie was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude twenty one decimal zero south [21.0S]
longitude one hundred and ten decimal one east [110.1E]
Recent movement : south southwest at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 986 hPa


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles in southern quadrants
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.


FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre decreasing to 30 knots by 0000 UTC 02
January.

Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles in southern quadrants
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.
Winds easing below 34 knots by 0000 UTC 02 January.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 02 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 22.3 south 109.2 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 02 January: Within 80 nautical miles of 23.3 south 108.2 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 01 January 2008.

WEATHER PERTH
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#105 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 01, 2008 12:29 pm

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Coredesat

#106 Postby Coredesat » Tue Jan 01, 2008 9:23 pm

Dead from BOM, gone from NRL.

AXAU01 APRF 020042
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0042 UTC 02/01/2008
Name:Ex-Melanie
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 22.6S
Longitude: 108.3E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [46 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [226 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [21 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.5/W0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Medium

REMARKS:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Melanie has now weakened below cyclone intensity and
continues to move to the southwest.
Convection has diminished to the southwest
and FT=1.5 based on MET and DT using time-averaged shear pattern. Near gales in
the southwest quadrant may still occur if convection again flares to the
southwest of the centre.


==
There will be no further bulletins issued for this system.
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