NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Melanie (TC 08S)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#21 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 27, 2007 10:02 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#22 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:27 am

28/0230 UTC 14.3S 117.6E T2.5/2.5 98S -- South Indian Ocean
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#23 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 28, 2007 1:09 am

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:30pm WDT on Friday the 28th of December 2007
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

Tropical Low off northwest Kimberley coast
Location :near 14.1S 117.7E at 9am WDT Friday
about 700 kilometres [380 nautical miles]
north of Port Hedland
Central Pressure :994hPa
Recent movement :south southeast at 10 kilometres per hour [5 knots]
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Saturday : High
Sunday : High
Monday : High

REMARKS - The low is developing and is likely to be named as a tropical cyclone
later today. Gales are not expected in coastal communities during Saturday or
during the day on Sunday, but may develop late on Sunday or Monday. Tropical
Cyclone Advices will be issued later today and residents of coastal communities
between Broome and Exmouth are advised to listen for further updates.


** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#24 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 28, 2007 1:50 am

Upgraded to TC Melanie.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#25 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 28, 2007 2:02 am

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 4:00 pm WDT on Friday, 28 December 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Exmouth to Broome.

At 3:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Melanie, Category 1 was estimated to be
610 kilometres northwest of Broome and
660 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
moving south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Melanie is not expected to cause gales on the coast overnight
tonight or during Saturday. However gales may develop on the coast late Sunday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Melanie at 3:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 14.4 degrees South 117.9 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 40 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 1
Central pressure......... 984 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Residents in coastal communities between Broome and Exmouth should
listen for the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm WDT Friday 28 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#26 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 28, 2007 2:05 am

FKAU03 ADRM 280700
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20071228/0600Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: MELANIE
NR: 02
PSN: S1424 E11754
MOV: SSE 04KT
C: 984HPA
MAX WIND: 40KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 28/1200 S1448 E11800
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 28/1800 S1512 E11812
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 29/0000 S1536 E11824
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 29/0600 S1600 E11830
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 55KT
NXT MSG: 20071228/1300Z
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#27 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 28, 2007 4:34 am

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 28/1800: 15.2S 118.2E: 045 (085): 050 (095): 976
+24: 29/0600: 16.0S 118.5E: 070 (130): 055 (100): 968
+36: 29/1800: 16.9S 118.4E: 130 (240): 070 (130): 958
+48: 30/0600: 17.5S 117.9E: 180 (335): 080 (150): 946
REMARKS:
VIS imagery during the morning gives a solid T3.0 DT with consistent wrap of 0.6 to 0.65 under a curved band pattern or consistent separation of less than half a degree between CDO and LLCC with a shear pattern. Pattern is that of a classical T3.0 and constraints are not broken so FT and CI are set at 3.0.

Organisation has significantly improved since the same time yesterday however the system remains in a very narrow shear ridge and appearance in satelllite imagery is clearly consistent with the system contintuing to be influenced by some shear. Conditions continue to be generally favourable and hence a continued development at close to the standard rate is forecast. Although there is generally close agreement on future track between many of the models track uncertainty is considered high due to two factors. The models develop an upstream low for which there is currently little observational support and the development and movement of that low will have a significant impact on the environment for TC Melanie. There is also the potential for Melanie to develop into a more intense system than indicated in the models, with consequences for peripheral ridging and subsequent motion. The forecast policy is therefore skewed towards emphasising a risk of continued southerly, or even south southeasterly motion.
0 likes   

Coredesat

#28 Postby Coredesat » Fri Dec 28, 2007 5:39 am

JTWC has this up as 08S, as well, and forecasts a much sharper recurve to the southwest.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#29 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 28, 2007 6:34 am

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Melanie (TC 08S)

#30 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 28, 2007 6:38 am

Image

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/272051Z DEC 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 117.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 117.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.5S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.6S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.6S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.2S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 117.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MELANIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 08S HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AND A 272155Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE THAT SHOWED 30-35 KT WINDS NEAR THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STORM IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST-
WARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, TC 08S WILL BEGIN TO BE STEERED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH AND TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 08S WILL INTENSIFY DUE TO
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS FOREC-
AST IS SUPPORTED BY THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOC-
CEN 272051Z DEC 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
272100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#31 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 28, 2007 8:00 am

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0713UTC 28 DECEMBER 2007

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Melanie was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal four south [14.4S]
longitude one hundred and seventeen decimal nine east [117.9E]
Recent movement : south southeast at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 984 hPa


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles in
southern quadrants.


FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 55 knots by 0600 UTC 29
December.

Winds within 40 nautical miles of centre increasing to greater then 48 knots by
1800 UTC 28 December with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre, extending to 120
nautical miles in southern quadrants with rough to very rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 28 December: Within 45 nautical miles of 15.2 south 118.2 east
Central pressure 976 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 29 December: Within 70 nautical miles of 16.0 south 118.5 east
Central pressure 968 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 28 December 2007.

WEATHER PERTH
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#32 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 28, 2007 8:33 am

Still 40 kts at 12z.

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 29/0000: 15.7S 118.2E: 050 [095]: 050 [095]: 976
+24: 29/1200: 16.7S 117.9E: 070 [130]: 055 [100]: 968
+36: 30/0000: 17.4S 117.1E: 090 [165]: 065 [120]: 962
+48: 30/1200: 18.1S 116.3E: 110 [205]: 075 [140]: 954
+60: 31/0000: 18.1S 115.6E: 135 [250]: 085 [155]: 944
+72: 31/1200: 18.2S 114.9E: 160 [295]: 090 [165]: 934
REMARKS:
Intensity based on shear pattern in IR imagery indicating marginal DT=3.0.
Convection near centre remains unorganised and system continues to exhibit
monsoonal features.
System continues to suffer from moderate NNE shear which may decrease in next
24/48 hours providing an opportunity for further development.
0 likes   


Coredesat

#34 Postby Coredesat » Fri Dec 28, 2007 9:14 am

Indeed, the convection associated with Melanie is quite strong. The first microwave images are showing a fairly impressive structure associated with it; if the structure continues to improve as it has, rapid intensification could occur.

I can't tell just how cold the convection is because the latest image on NRL is of a big orange block for some reason.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#35 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 28, 2007 9:42 am

WV works well enough for that though.

Image
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 28078
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#36 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:55 am

Looks like a solid 50-55 kt (1-min) storm...
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#37 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:04 am

Image

Looks really good.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2007DEC28 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 16:00:13 S Lon : 118:00:28 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 / 994.6mb/ 39.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.8 3.1 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -85.1C Cloud Region Temp : -84.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

28/1430 UTC 15.2S 118.2E T3.0/3.0 MELANIE -- South Indian Ocean
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#38 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:43 am

Image

That's power!!
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 28078
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#39 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:41 pm

How cold are those cloud tops?
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#40 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Dec 28, 2007 1:00 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:How cold are those cloud tops?



IIRC, -80ºC or colder.
0 likes   


Return to “2007”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests