NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Melanie (TC 08S)

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#81 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Dec 29, 2007 1:15 pm

That's power! It looks like the eye will be coming.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#82 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Dec 29, 2007 1:31 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:These are situations you wish you had Hurricane Hunters operational worldwide...


Unlike, say, Bangladesh, Australia has a large enough military and robust enough economy they could have three or four WC-130J or similar aircraft for recon.


I always figured, between them, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and maybe the Philippines and Hong Kong could pay for a few aircraft for typhoon recon. Have the RMSC, the JMA, task AC for cyclones approaching land in the Northwest Pacific.
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#83 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 29, 2007 2:30 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 3:35 am WDT on Sunday, 30 December 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Exmouth to Karratha. The
Cyclone WARNING between Whim Creek and Karratha has been cancelled.

A Cyclone WATCH extends south to Cape Cuvier and inland to Minilya Roadhouse and
Nanutarra

At 3:00 am WDT Tropical Cyclone Melanie, Category 2 was estimated to be
330 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
465 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth and
moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Melanie is moving on a southwesterly track, parallel to the
Pilbara coast. Although the cyclone may remain offshore and not make a coastal
crossing, there is still a potential for gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per
hour developing in coastal communities west of Karratha later today. Significant
rainfall accumulation is unlikely, unless the cyclone takes a more southerly
track.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Melanie at 3:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 18.0 degrees South 115.6 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 964 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Residents of coastal and adjacent inland communities between Karratha and Cape
Cuvier should listen for the next advice.
The next advice will be issued by 7:00 am WDT Sunday 30 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
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Coredesat

Re: Re:

#84 Postby Coredesat » Sat Dec 29, 2007 2:50 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:These are situations you wish you had Hurricane Hunters operational worldwide...


Unlike, say, Bangladesh, Australia has a large enough military and robust enough economy they could have three or four WC-130J or similar aircraft for recon.


I always figured, between them, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and maybe the Philippines and Hong Kong could pay for a few aircraft for typhoon recon. Have the RMSC, the JMA, task AC for cyclones approaching land in the Northwest Pacific.


They could, but then you still have the problem of airspace clearance. Recon is invariably done by military aircraft (or aircraft designed for use by the military) - securing clearance for missions that would involve flying over other countries is extremely tricky.
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#85 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 29, 2007 4:53 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 6:30 am WDT on Sunday, 30 December 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Mardie. The
Cyclone WARNING between Karratha and Mardie has been cancelled.

A Cyclone WATCH extends south to Cape Cuvier.

At 6:00 am WDT Tropical Cyclone Melanie, Category 2 was estimated to be
430 kilometres north of Exmouth and
385 kilometres northwest of Karratha and
moving west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Melanie is moving on a west southwesterly track, parallel to
the Pilbara coast. Although the cyclone is expected to remain offshore and not
make a coastal crossing, there is still a potential for gales with gusts to 120
kilometres per hour developing in coastal communities west of Mardie later
today. Significant rainfall accumulation is unlikely unless the cyclone takes a
more S'ly track.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Melanie at 6:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 18.1 degrees South 114.5 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 964 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Residents of coastal and adjacent inland communities between Mardie and Cape
Cuvier should listen for the next advice.
The next advice will be issued by 10:00 am WDT Sunday 30 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
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#86 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 29, 2007 5:40 pm

Image

Looks like a partial eye-wall.
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#87 Postby Alacane2 » Sat Dec 29, 2007 8:36 pm

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 9:40 am WDT on Sunday, 30 December 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Mardie

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cape Cuvier to Coral Bay.

At 9:00 am WDT Tropical Cyclone Melanie, Category 2 was estimated to be
410 kilometres northwest of Karratha and
415 kilometres north of Exmouth and
moving west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Melanie is moving on a west southwesterly track, parallel to
the Pilbara coast. Although the cyclone is expected to remain offshore and not
make a coastal crossing, there is still potential for gales with gusts to 120
kilometres per hour to develop in coastal communities between Coral Bay and
Mardie later today. No significant rainfall is expected from this system.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Melanie at 9:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 18.2 degrees South 114.0 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 964 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Residents of coastal and adjacent inland communities between Mardie and Cape
Cuvier should listen for the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 1:00 pm WDT Sunday 30 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
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#88 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Dec 29, 2007 8:43 pm

Seems to have fluctuated up and down over the last 24 hours. I'd say 60 kt (1-min)/979mb right now.
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#89 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 29, 2007 9:48 pm

Image

Looking pretty good.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2007DEC30 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 18:40:27 S Lon : 114:33:42 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 984.1mb/ 57.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb

Center Temp : -39.8C Cloud Region Temp : -62.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.79 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Melanie (TC 08S)

#90 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Dec 29, 2007 9:52 pm

I've been drunk in Western Australia. Much further South, Perth and Freemantle.
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#91 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 29, 2007 11:43 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 12:45 pm WDT on Sunday, 30 December 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Onslow, the
cyclone WARNING from Onslow to Mardie has been cancelled.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cape Cuvier to Coral Bay.

At 12:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Melanie, Category 2 was estimated to be
355 kilometres north of Exmouth and
355 kilometres north northwest of Onslow and
moving southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Melanie is moving on a west southwesterly track. The cyclone is
expected to remain offshore and will not make a coastal crossing, however there
is a slight risk of a period of gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour in
the vicinity of Exmouth later today. No significant rainfall is expected from
this system.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Melanie at 12:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 18.8 degrees South 113.6 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 19 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 150 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 966 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Residents of coastal communities between Onslow and Cape Cuvier should listen
for the next advice.
The next advice will be issued by 4:00 pm WDT Sunday 30 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

Image
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#92 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 29, 2007 11:57 pm

Image

Another BOOM!!!
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Re: NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Melanie (TC 08S)

#93 Postby Crostorm » Sun Dec 30, 2007 4:11 am

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 3:40 pm WDT on Sunday, 30 December 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Onslow has been
CANCELLED.

The Cyclone WATCH for coastal areas from Cape Cuvier to Coral Bay has also been
CANCELLED.


At 3:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Melanie, Category 2 was estimated to be
330 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth and
345 kilometres northwest of Onslow and
moving southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Melanie is continuing to move on a west southwesterly track
away from the west Pilbara coast. The cyclone is expected to remain offshore and
gales are not expected in coastal communities.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Melanie at 3:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 19.1 degrees South 113.2 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 18 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 150 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 966 hectoPascals


No further advices will be issued for this system unless it moves back towards
the coast.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
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#94 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 12:33 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1227UTC 30 DECEMBER 2007

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Melanie was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal nine south [18.9S]
longitude one hundred and twelve decimal six east [112.6E]
Recent movement : west southwest at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 55 knots
Central pressure: 966 hPa


AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Maximum winds to 55 knots near the centre decreasing to 45 knots by 1200 UTC 31
December.

Winds above 48 knots within 35 nautical miles of centre until 0000 UTC 31
December with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 31 December: Within 50 nautical miles of 19.3 south 111.3 east
Central pressure 972 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 31 December: Within 70 nautical miles of 19.6 south 110.3 east
Central pressure 980 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 30 December 2007.

WEATHER PERTH
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#95 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 30, 2007 12:53 pm

This system has definitely been in virtual steady-state as a strong TS...
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Re:

#96 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:13 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This system has definitely been in virtual steady-state as a strong TS...


Yep, but the end is coming fast.

Image
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#97 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 30, 2007 8:54 pm

AXAU01 APRF 310121
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0121 UTC 31/12/2007
Name: Melanie
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 18.7S
Longitude: 112.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [285 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [46 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/1200: 18.6S 111.5E: 050 [095]: 040 [075]: 984
+24: 01/0000: 18.8S 111.0E: 080 [150]: 035 [065]: 988
+36: 01/1200: 19.2S 110.4E: 180 [335]: 030 [055]: 994
+48: 02/0000: 19.6S 109.4E: 210 [390]: 030 [055]: 994
+60: 02/1200: 20.1S 108.3E: 210 [390]: 025 [045]: 998
+72: 03/0000: 20.3S 107.1E: 280 [520]: 025 [045]: 998
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Melanie has maintained a westerly track. DT has now become
difficult to assign with loss of organised convection. Quickscat shows 50 knot
intensity still possible with well defined LLCC evident on microwave imagery.
With continuing shear, cooler SSTs and a stratocumulus cloud field to the
southwest, weakening is expected.
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#98 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 31, 2007 6:14 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:50 pm WDT on Monday, 31 December 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Melanie [Category 1] was located at 3 pm WDT near 18.8S 111.5E,
that is 445 km northwest of Exmouth and moving west at 8 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Melanie is continuing to weaken and move on a westerly track
away from the west Pilbara coast. The cyclone is expected to remain offshore and
gales are not expected in coastal communities.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 10 pm WDT
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#99 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Dec 31, 2007 11:29 am

Looks like shear is getting into it now.
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#100 Postby wyq614 » Mon Dec 31, 2007 1:35 pm

快不行了。。。

It is dying now.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2007DEC31 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 18:57:05 S Lon : 110:49:29 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 995.0mb/ 41.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.6 3.0 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.6mb

Center Temp : -21.8C Cloud Region Temp : -49.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.54 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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